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Viz COPD, Duaklir is a late entrant. Tudorza is on the market and has been for a while. Again read the Prospectus from 2 and half years ago or more recent press releases to understand benefits and new labels will help against incumbents. Duaklir does a a few hundred million outside of US (See AZ reporting as they retain the rights)
The FeNO test is world leading for asthma diagnosis and control. CIRs test is market leader and is the only one used by big pharma in trials too. It has multiple regulatory approvals but is a different model to selling a drug. Ultimately its a bit of a razor blade model but potentially very high value if combined digital asthma dherence. My belief is it is the Gold Standard and China is key (very different healthcare system here and paid mostly out of pocket)
MiniBox is excellent and allows much more throughput for plethysmography than can be done with full 'BODYBOX' systems. Its a real winner for physicians as the test is fully reimbursed and its a simple method of maximising return from footfall in your office rather than sending someone to hospital. Its also a perfect channel for FeNo sales too.
LungFit follows a similar razor blade model (their is a consumable in the bedside kit) and has some core advantages over current standard of care, but am less excited about this for now as it remains early and not yet approved. Capital sales into hospitals even those with a good business and clinical rationale can be challenging.
Quite possibly yes
Is it realistic to believe that CIR can take 10% of the US market for COPD medications? Or more, even? This is a $2bn market.
JA - I concur that that MrK may be ill informed one way or another. IMHO a lot. Conflating such disease states with profiteering is bordering on being utterly distasteful. FYI there has been a lot of nonsense lately in the press about the HFA propellant used in metered dose inhalers (i.e, the pressurised ones used for children in the main who either don't have the inspiratory flow or co-ordination to do anything otherwise) and their alleged contribution to global warming. This of course is a load of tosh (I shan't bore you with history of Montreal protocol etc). CIRs inhalers however are all dry powder based i,e. non propellant so can certainly considered green in this area, the PressAir device being IMHO best in class having spent more than 20 years of my life in the pharma industry and 15 years in respiratory product development in one shape or another with variety of different pharmacos and understanding the metrics of the AZ deal well (read the original prospectus for the class 1 transaction if you want more). The real key to CIR near term success will be how well it can take share from the behemoths of the US COPD space like BI's Spiriva, Stiolto and GSKs triple product, and perhaps some of the newer very very expensive monthly injectable biologicals. All 3 are once a day products, Tudorza (mono LAMA) and Duaklir (LAMA/LABA combo) are both twice a day products. But don't worry, the product labels CIR have are very competitive indeed and circa 50% of physician folk think twice a day is actually better than once a day, particularly in the key area of compliance and adherence which is key to keeping your condition stable. Lets see what the first six months scripting volume look like. If even mildly positive, we can all be super excited for the near term.
Yes, JAdam, a great coupe of posts, especially for a newbie here like myself, who has initiated a position starting a week ago.
Reading through all the Holdings RNSs of the past year (and there are so many!), I am gobsmacked by the high shareholdings of a few IIs, plus Astra Zeneca. And these have been joined by Richard Griffiths and very recently, Oryx and Lombard Odier, my old stamping ground. Given that Woodford once held over 25% of the shares and their selling down to below 5% on September 13th has been well absorbed by a flatlining share price, illustrates the pace of forced selling matched by new strategic investors attracted by the share dynamics and improving industry fundamentals. And then on Friday comes a new Director purchase.
And throughout this turbulent year for shareholding disposals/additions, Circassian has RNSd two key FDA approvals, one as a sNDA for Tudorza, and the other for Duaklir. In any other AIM-listed biopharma, such news would have led to an instant spiking in the share price, but in CIR, the Woodford effect has clearly held it back, as has worries over financing the milestone payments to AstraZeneca and AIT. Still, these appear to have been arranged without a placing, and forward guidance appears to be pointing to progress ahead in 2020 on the operational front. I can well see why certain IIs have taken significant stakes in CIR at this time of a depressed share valuation, on the basis that 2020 could start to show the beginnings of CIR's bold strategic to re-take ownership of Tudorza.
A fascinating situation to analyse and be involved with.
Tremendous summary JAdam, thank you for posting that. Completely agree about it being a perfect storm for a rerate, great to be in at this level.
Thanks JAdam for your kind message earlier.
Now, back to CIR. Looking at the longer term chart, can you or anyone else point to specific factors that caused the one year price slide starting in July 2018 and ending in June 2019, with a flat period since? It looks like the sp could rise all the way back to 80p with a fair fundamental wind behind it. And maybe even 120p.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/z8NKguR8/