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Reasonable theory lhall , I still think there is more to it to warrant dropping as much as we have , what ot is I don't know and I guess the question we all want to know , but I always thought confidence in the vaccines were always high , it was proven some time ago that the vaccines work against the indian variant, and the move to postpone the original freedom day was to get more jabs in arms.
I do think the government were sending so many mixed messages , people didn't know if they were coming or going which almost certainly didn't help.
Hopefully a steady north moving s.p over the next few months will help , get financials put the way and start looking forward to bond
Bonkers, I think the difference in January is that although we had high case numbers then, the vaccine roll-out hadn't got going yet, but there was the expectation that it would and equally it would reduce cases down to a very low number. So although high case, forward sentiment was positive. Whereas, over the last few weeks we've had high cases, despite the vaccine. Hence sentiment was at least unsure, if not negative. Each company is different, but I think covid has been key underlying factor across T+L stocks. I've seen pretty similar pattern across the portfolio of recovery stocks I've held for the last year.
Intresting , in Jan when we had ridiculous case numbers and deaths the s.p was rising.
Fast forward 6 months and we have high case numbers and low deaths and this is the reason for the drop.
Not convinced that's the ONLY reason
I only agree with rising Covid cases being the reason for the fall Lhall.
I am aware that shorts are disclosable to the FCA at 0.1%. It's on their website. Also aware that we only ever get to see the published ones over 0.5%. I've mentioned it on here before. Similarly it's 3% for holdings RNS's and we never get to hear of any right up to 2.999999%.
Careful agreeing with me lpd, you'll get accused of being a deramping shorter. To be fair, I have pretty much been saying covid fears were the substantive reason behind this sp movement since May rather than some dark form of manipulation or shorting. Short interest is declared at 0.1% rather than 0.5% btw.
Sammy18, good to hear from you and a perfectly valid point.
Better wording on my part would have been that over 1/4 "equivalent" of the issued share capital of Cineworld has been traded since that date.
Still though - not one holdings RNS and only a 0.14% increase in shorts.
Biggest winners. The market makers and those handling the share transactions.
Lpd,
We don't know how many of those shares traded have been in and out of the same buyer/sellers account
:-)
Incidentally Since 13th July – 380,822,652 shares in this company have been traded.
Total Shares In Issue £1,373 Million.
So over 1/4 of the issued share capital in Cineworld has changed hands.
*Not one Holdings RNS notifying of any change in holding off our Institutional Investors.
*Only 1 minor increase in short positions amounting to an increase of 0.14% of the shares available in the company 1922200 amounting to about £1.25M
Statistics which I myself find completely incredible.
bullsbears, Interesting comparison with NEX first of all for the trends in their share prices and similarities.
You asked for thoughts and here are my own to add to that of any other replies.
I have to agree with LGHall that the bulk of any recent drop in the CINE share price for me is predominantly Covid related. That plus all falls on CINE get exaggerated due to traders, market making and short interests (not the over 0.5% disclosed ones, but the less than 0.5% ones that escape the radar) To put context on things.
*Only on the 5th July the share price finished the day at 87.48p. (Chart below)
* This was exactly 1 week prior 12th July - announcement date by the PM on Freedom Day.
* In the week prior Covid cases in the UK started to rise.
* We then got the cautious Sage members vocalising in the press that we shouldn't unlock. Then you got Govt Ministers coming out talking about watered down Freedom Day measures (e.g still having to wear masks etc)
*12th July you got the press ahead with Freedom Day but with accompanying doom-laden press briefings of warnings of doubling of infection rates every 9 to 10 days and to expect a lot more death and urging Caution. (No doubt heavily influenced by the Behavioural scientists that Crumpets highlighted). All creating that element of fear. The PM then failing to rule out that fresh restrictions in the future adds.
*Then add the press across the back of all this multiplying the story and compounding the message.
*12th July against rising infections - we unlock
* 19th July - Freedom Day comes. Just to point out that the Infection rate on the Friday just prior to FD stands at 54,674 and the highest it has been. All these events covered and magnified in press coverage.
* The share price imho mirrors this exactly but with two jumps back upwards.
* You can probably add in a bit more for Black Widow day and date release and the the pirating debate. BW released on the 7th July. Disney releasing imv misleading streaming numbers and whereby "global" streaming numbers $60M were being compared to Domestic US Box Office $80M for the opening weekend. When it should have been against $156M global Box office take. *One of those jumps back upwards came after Mooky was interviewed by Deadline (link below)
But let me just say this - from the point on the 17th July - when the infection rate rose to 54674 and it's highest, the press didn't pick up on the next two days immediately leading to Freedom day, seeing falls in the infection rate. In fact it has taken them until Friday to start publicly commenting and acknowledging what have been readily apparent falls in the infection rate. (31,759 yesterday)
*Chart
https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChart.asp?sharechart=CINE&share=Cineworld
*Mooky Interview
https://deadline.com/2021/07/mooky-greidinger-interview-black-widow-day-cineworld-1234793975/#comments
The Cine specific stuff won't be applicable to Nex but the rest I suspect will.
Hi Bulls. Personally I think this is covid related. Travel and retail (inc. cinema) all made good gains after the vaccines were approved, right up untill march time. The forward sentiment being that reopening was going to happen and cases were dropping to near zero. Since April and the Delta variant there's been a steady drop across these sectors as the spread and forward sentiment became murky. Dominoes was an obvious outlier as it's done very well as people have order takeaways. I think there's good news on the horizon though. Daily domestic case figures look to be down and we've seen first 7 day decrease for some time. There are other factors at play and correlation doesn't necessarily mean causation but I'm thinking we'll see something like a 20-30% t+l rise over the next couple bof months if covid data continues to look positive
I don't think it is related to index.
Cine is down by 40% just within 1 month. I don't see NEX going down by that much %
There was no single RNS about anyone selling. All the big funds are holding and they are not worried about the imaginary high monthly cash burn mentioned here or the other scaremongering posted by some snakes here.
It clearly is manipulated.
NEX earnings are actually next week - and so im going to be interested to see whether they release positive or negative sentiment and if its positive, it helps them break away from the overall index trend. Hopefully it is and it will - and so could be repeated by Cine in Aug.
A few weeks ago I posted about a similar trend between CINE and NEX over the past few months - as it seemed quite a 'strange' occurrence - particularly as outlook for both companies seemed increasingly positive but the share price kept falling. NEX has completely different financials and debt to CINE, and actually a very optimistic outlook - but still dropping.
Over the past week I thought i'd do a bit more digging and came across the FTSE 350 Travel and Leisure Index.
It was really interesting to notice that both the CINE and NEX share prices seemed to mirror very closely the chart trend of this index. From around late Feb onwards - all 3 are in a downward channel - with peaks and bottoms at pretty much the same dates. From what I can recall this trend also seemed very apparent on many of the other shares too in the index.
This has led me to strongly feel that - its actually the index that might be pulling CINE and the other shares in the index down - rather than short term factors surrounding attendance figures, or all the chat about shorts manipulating prices etc.
The reason I am leaning towards this view is, the index has around 21 constituents in it and around half of these are airlines and holiday companies. These companies, i think are likely huge in comparison to someone like CW and so may be having a dominant effect on the behaviour of Algos trading stocks in this index.
I dont know too much detail about how algos are set up - but Id consider it plausible that they could be influenced by the cumulative behaviour of an index - and once algos start a sell off of shares across an index - 'softer' retail hands follow suit (the debt/short situation of CINE might amplify negative sentiment on this stock). This might explain why funds/larger investors are not selling their shares and also mirror what CINE IR said recently to someone on here that the price drops were due to algos and retail investors.
Some might say 'well its obvious' the index will mirror the behaviour of constituents - but i dont think its that simple as it is strange that so many shares in an index which actually does have a wide variety of sectors - food, travel, gambling, etc all are following a similar trajectory - they cant all be 'debt fuelled' or filled with issues - and they are not, with NEX being one example.
There is the odd outlier - such as Dominos pizza - and looking back over its recent history - its done really well as the official company statements and earnings have all been really good.
So in terms of when we could see a reversal - my (admittedly uneducated) sense is we eitehr need the travel industry to stabilise/get some optimism (or we could to continue to be carried with the current), or need a jolt through something like Cine releasing some really good trading numbers/forecasts/statement, maybe studios completely backtracking on streaming etc to help us break away from the current downward wave.
Any thoughts?
Two of my main holdings are CW and National Express.
Looking at both their charts side by side - they seem to be following a very similar trajectory - low around Oct, working towards a decent peak in late March and then a steady (seemingly unexplained) decline to date.
I guess one assumption could be they are both sharing a similar market sentiment - one which is obviously different to mine lol
I am also confused at the NEX performance as I am CINE - because I feel a fair assumption is with all the travel restrictions domestic travel should do well this year.
Anyone have any thoughts on why their could be a similarity? maybe it can shed more light on whats happening with CW.
NEX earnings are due end of July and CW in Aug - so perhaps thatll be the time for a correction for both....