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smalltrader you make a number of perfectly valid points.
However I am divergent with your interpretation of why we are where we are and any AGM notions are a side show. I've just watched the same with Aviva and a major shareholder and it has meant absolutely nothing to the share price. The CINE bonuses are already approved. This is just about an institution flexing its rights to try and shuffle the deck chairs.
The share price was deliberately dropped and pre a very pertinent time for CINE and nothing to do with AGM. Further, and unless I am mistaken it started to turn again on Friday afternoon. there is nothing wrong with being complacent but perhaps you may be guilty of trying to find reasons after the event to try and justify things once the drop has happened.
We know from RNS that CINE is covered financially till year end in all eventualities. They have told us so. There won't be any RI until imho the SP is at least multiples of todays level. Bonds are the better and less dilutive route. Pay them back and take out the interest payments when things have recovered would be a sound thing to do.
By the way, by the time the UK reopens on the 17th May (and hopefully we find out at either midday or 5p.m. tomorrow) then CINE will already have have 408 multiplexes reopened in the US. They have circa 255 reopened as of Friday just past and there are another 153 opening in the US on May 14th. UK reopening should then add a further circa 128 multriplexes and then on 21 May the last 128 reopen in the US. So those cash registers, popcorn machines and the advertising credits have already started rolling.
The main focus next week should be on reopenings. It is not just about UK cinemas reopenins. It is also about all those "feeder" establishments of nearby pubs, restaurants and bars being given the green light for reopening at the same time. it helps make an "evening out" and one fuels the others demand and vice versa.
Reopenings will be great. Reopenings with increased capacity will be even better. Reopenings without capacity restrictions (as has been inferred) would be sublime. Great for our multiplexes but doubly so if your Pizza Expresses, Nando's, Wagamama's and Wetherspoons etc will also have increased capacity "feeding" demand.
I flagged before an HMSO property at Silverburn that has a top notch Cineworld cinema up an escalator on the first level. Directly beneath are most of the above restaurants plus many others. The dine with us link lets you see those "feeder" establishments.
Vaccine backed reopenings are where we want to be and going into a decision with Mortality having been in single figures and the teens surpasses what many had ever imagined at this point in time with schools and retail and al fresco already reopened
Clearly there is lot of selling going on but don't understand the reason why. Short tracker didn't show any increase in shorts. I think until AGM on 12th is over, we may not see big moves.
Also looked at AGM agenda and I see some mention about rights issue. AGM was announced on April 12th and since that date we have been struggling to go above £1.
The debt increased by £800m since Dec 2019 but there was cineplex deal going on around Dec 2019 and there was no talk of rights issue at that time. Now the cineplex deal is cancelled and cinemas are opening up so with debt just increased by £800m, I think there is no need for additional liquidity. Cine said monthly cash burn is £60M and we have liquidity of around £450M through bond issuance and refund from US Cares act so the current liquidity of £450M approx is good enough to see us through for next 7months if cinemas are completely closed. Cinemas are fully opening and we are going to see money coming in. So with £450M cash in hand and tills ringing from May 17th and cineplex deal cancelled, there is no need for any rights issue now. Lenders would have forced CINE to do rights issue last year itself like IAG, RR and many others had to do.
Clearly Mooky doesn't want any dilution so is the reason why he did not tap SHs for cash. Also he has put out special bonus proposal if CINE SP reached £1.90 and £3.80. He wouldn't put out such a proposal if there is going to be any dilution and if the price doesn't go up to £1.90 and beyond.
Currently market is just cautious about the outcome of AGM on 12th. To give confidence to the market there was a director purchase too back in April soon after AGM announcement.
Happy to be proved wrong but you might find ianharding that someobody was probably buying back on Friday afternoon.
All the key stats btw are looking excellent going into the next Road map decision. Only 5 deaths reported, Hospitalisations down again and 2nd vaccs again are really good.
Who would actually have thought some 4 months ago at the start of the Vaccines Delivery Plan, and with EU interference that the death rate in the UK would be trending so low - and consistently so. Plenty of scope there for further easings imho.
Who knows. There seems parties wanting the SP to crash. But at some point, investors will buy back in bigger numbers to stop the SP being pushed down. Might start Monday or not till Cineworld open the doors in the UK. I do not expect much dramatic movement up or down.