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Rock
Regards cash burn it's already been indicated in the region of $60/month.
Landlords negotiations also already been noted as having gone well and was ongoing.
Shorts may well increase again in the future (after all they have historically been higher when SP was £2+ & £3+. Institutions and individuals buy shares, others short them. NEITHER guarantee a direction of travel in the share price.
The brief period of re-opening second half last year may well have increased that periods burn rate, but it was a short period and initially it's "failure" was not social distancing or Tenant performance. It was lack of further notable movies.
This time round it is perfectly reasonable to expect/forecast different picture.
This is viewed as end to lockdown cycles with good reason to expect that so (vaccines and large numbers already had vaccine and by opening a great many more).
With this certainty the large list of films that overwhelmingly opted to stick to theatrical release will now provide the "product" for the business.
While social distancing and other safety measures did not and does not make it inoperable the removal of them will no doubt make it much easier and it will also provide additional confidence to those that have maybe been less so in past months.
Understanding as things stand jist now:
Cinemas are in bracket scheduled to be able to open from (no earlier than) 17 May with likely restrictions (levels and details not yet confirmed, though it would be reasonable to expect no harsher than last year and may well be less).
5 WEEKS later on 21 June it is expected that restrictions economy wide will be lifted.
This lines up very well with the current dates for movie releases as there is a very strong catalogue starting June/July for the second half of year.
There are still financial issues to work through, but going on performance we have seen from Mooky and board I think it reasonable they will achieve this.
A year of isolation, likely foreign travel restrictions and when that is an option likely more expensive for a time if not forever then cinema can very much expect a pretty quick return and indeed may well even have a case for stronger than many many years revenues.
Ahh, poor in-depth / motley fool account.
Trying to give it one last go, yeh?
It's over, kid.
You're finished.
I have traded this share since last June - mostly long but sometimes short.
Currently long but understand the challenges facing the chain.
This is a tough call at this point.
Possibly?
The UK is very different to USA concerning shorting.
There is still a over 5% short on Cineworld here in the UK.
I really believe that will increase as Cineworld reopens.
Let’s see the amount of cash burnt during closure and how they got on negotiating with UK and US landlords - the results next month will reveal details.
The difference being the vaccines bring reopening without restrictions and consumer confidence. Imo this time it's different.
I agree with Ian, i think institutional shorters are likely to lay low for the time being.
I really don’t know but reopening does not guarantee an upside for Cineworld or it’s shareholders.
Strangely reopening ratchets up the risks.
I will see what films are released and the required social distancing required.
We don’t want a repeat of the previous reopening last Aug with no audiences especially in the US.
No room for any mistakes
All American hedge funds are avoiding shorting UK companies now, shorts will close and no new ones will open. Congressional hearing still to rule on GameStop fiasco. Might advise SEC to outlaw Shorting practices. IMO
Remember even Mooky was talking about profits returning in 2023.
A lot has changed and will change again between now and 2023.
I have a modest long position but I am going to be very cautious.
How much do you think the sp will increase by on reopening announcements Rock8?
Keep an eye on the short positions as they start to reopen - I suspect they will start to increase again.
Still many risks for shareholders although the company will survive in some form or other.
In my opinion once a reopening date is announced the SP will jump 10% c.
The most important factors for the sp are the released of new movies (blocbuster) and the ability of those movies to reach the billion in their Box Office. It will take time I agree but if we do the same thing than in China probably we can have the sp in the 300... who knows
US (and UK but remember they report in US $) audiences returning and blockbusters being released are now the important factors.
Without both the business will hemorrhage cash extremely quickly once reopened - as last Aug.
Remember things were not great before the pandemic and now they owe considerably more money to everyone.
Good luck to all.
£1.10 - £1.15 on the actual news and then it will start moving up from there.
I am thinking £1.50 by July.
Also depends on what the full 2020 results say, hopefully no surprises on the rate of cash burn.
We have stopped talking about any takeover but we never know if something might happen in the next 6 months.
Where do you think it might jump to on reopening news announcements PinkEye?
We will most likely bounce around the 90,s until reopening news.
But we are still only 50% of the pre Covid price so we are still a great value recovery stock.
Will be interesting to see if any shorts reduce. Not sure what they are waiting for. The long term trend should only be one way.
I think there is chance UK unlocking might be sped up and June date total unlock moved into May if everything is going well. Which means May openings might might move to the end of April.
Boris has been sticking to the under promise over deliver tactic and he will want some good feeling going in to the May local elections.
i dont think 120 is too ambitious in the slightest, infact that is very much where we will see the start of main recovery.
Just curious to see what people think, obviously its all just speculation but when a reopening date is finally announce what impact do you think this will have on the sp? Could it spike to £1.20 or is that too ambitious?