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Everybody still arguing about timings of share prices lol.
Shamus must believe Cinema is either dead or Cineworld ( and by implication AMC given similar debt levels ) are also dead.
And we have a bunch of others certain that a high price will turn up in a few months.
The share price is a reflection of all interest in it on balance on any date and cannot be predicted accurately and repeatedly otherwise we would all be millionaires and trading CFDs daily.
This company may fail spectacularly but i dont think the probability of this is high. As with anything there is a risk I am wrong and i have no leverage against me so my 50,000 shares will simply be hoping that the market eventually reflects in a different time on the same business more positively.
As i said originally i hope Cineworld have taken similar measures to AMC and that some of this is clear on the 24th, but who knows what that will do to the share price on the day or even shortly after. There is still a massive difference of interest in this share within the market - it may take some time to change.
Well thanks, I did manage to buy in near the bottom but that's not to say I'm always right of course haha, just been watching closely and today seemed a good entry to buy more.. when the price was 32p the bears said it would be 18p, when the price is at 46p they're now saying 30p. Whatever price we are at, they'll say it's about half with no basis on the pricing except it's just over half whatever the price is that day haha. The market cap on Cineworld is crazily low Vs the potential earning in coming years, that's what I'm interested in.
@Enhlishdude If you managed to call the bottom correctly at 30p, then you are worth 100 of the low quality posters on here. High quality posts are much better than high quantity.
If you get a RNS off Goldman Sachs showing a significant increase in shares held. Then it might indicate that Disney are acting now, to pick up cheap shares. This will be a takeover target at some point. I feel next year. The anti-trust case did not happen for no reason. There were motivated parties pushing it through.
I feel the 24th will show the lenders giving Cineworld a three year break clause. Interest rates are so low at the moment. That they will want to act to try and stop a potential takeover attempt now, who will then pay off the debts and reduced interest on the debt. Wait three years and see the interest rates rise, where the lenders will make much better profit margin. The market then sees Cineworld is unlikely to go bankrupt in the near future, will then act accordingly. IMO
2 posts actually haha.. I've actually been on this forum a long time, I just never comment really unless I see a good opportunity.. you'll see my other post was me buying Cineworld in the 30s when everyone was selling.. I will try to make more of an effort to comment more so you guys don't think I'm some sort of scammer
I agree with the thrust of your prediction. It will go up when things go back to normal.
But, it can go down more as things don't go back to normal. Wave 2 looks imminent and in the short term its quite possible to test <30p again.
Alas we all know predictions on here mean nothing so take what you read with a pinch of salt.
It's never going to be £1 tomorrow but don't rule out the possibility of £2 in 6 months especially if within that time restrictions are reduced and a vaccine is found. I think more realistically we are looking at somewhere in the range of £1.20 - £1.50 being a sweet spot for this stock but can definitely go higher. It all depends how long you want to wait.
There appears to be many trolls but also many fantastists hoping for £1 tomorrow or double that in 6 months!
Fantastic post alasdairribbex.c!!!
Needed a post like that for those who are worrying. I suggest just stop watching the price and stop replying to the trolls. I just switched off from watching but did not sell a bean. Managed to bring my avg down to 53p now.
I too feel Mooky will add more debt than issuing equity so don't think there will be any dilution to SP. Interest rates are cheap so borrow more and lenders are being asked by the govt to be flexible. Cinemas are to stay forever. It is just a matter of time when the service resumes to normal. There are antibody/antigen testing kits coming up so that would allow cinemas, airports and all the businesses to open.
Try and ignore the share price... Business can be bought for £650m or so plus debt at today's price. Without me knowing the exact bank debt let's assume £4.5bn so the EV is about £5bn. £5bn EV is quite expensive for a business that might only do £300m EBITDA ( peel hunt ) this year really isn't it but then debt is cheap and maybe looking forward in 6 months time we are thinking it will do £800m EBITDA again by end of 2021 and it looks pretty cheap.
It really doesn't matter predicting share prices is impossible it might be 30p tomorrow but everything we've just said is still true.
The question is when do you think CINE will do 800m EBITDA again. 2021 or 2022 or never? if the answer is never then sell now.
You own part of a business not some share that jumps up and down with the joint efforts of 10s of millions of punters every day.
What is the saying ' trying to make your money too quickly is the best way to lose it ' ?
I think it has a healthy future but who knows when.
Thank you for some objective common sense in this sea of ramping/de-ramping madness :-)
Agree with pretty much everything - except the bit about Tenet - was definitely one to see in the cinema, but personally didn't think it was amazing - wasnt bad, just not amazing imo
don't know if you can tell ocean but the bottoms been found, you better close those short positions before they come back to bite u
So 35p next stop?
@alissirribbex.c
I couldn't agree more with your post.
@alasdairribbex.c You are absolutely correct. Bottom line is next week results will either direct us to a 20-30% jump or a drop to the 35p support.
On the long term that share will surely go up as cinema isn’t dead and won’t die.
Best is to stay calm and wait for better days
I totally agree,some sense at last in a sea of non
What a great first post, very well written. Welcome to the board alasdairribex
Great, balanced post. Well done.
There really is a lot of stuff posted here everyday.
I hold a substantial number of Cineworld shares purchased over the last year at around 80p average. This is a business that has survived a very long time in an industry that's made it through world wars and numerous technology changes.
The share price reflects fear about its long term revenue prospects and current precarious debt situation ( i do not include leases in that as they are no different to other monthly obligations like wages etc ). That said all banks are being very flexible with customers regarding covenant breaches, there are many many companies in breach of their covenants right now.
I personally don't see a huge equity issue as likely given it will dilute Mooky's holding so much - we have to hope that given we have a majority shareholder in this position he will act in his/our best interests. If further cash is needed debt seems more likely.
Will the industry shrink if Cinemas are not viable somehow long term to showcase and provide returns for huge blockbusters with massive budgets? I think not but it's possible.
Will PVOD replace cinemas long term? I don't think so and i cant see anyone taking their date to a living room near you to see a film and put their arm around them.
The future will see structural changes and technological innovations that we can't see coming but i think Cineworld will be here for at least a couple of years and that studios will want their returns through these cinemas. It remains relatively cheap as a night out for people - there is a very short list of things i can do with my gf on a thursday night if we want to go out at that sort of price.
Mulan's debut looks impressive to me but it doesn't convince me cinema is dead anymore than Tenet slowly doing hundreds of millions in revenue convinces me Cineworld is going to £2 anytime soon.
I think we just need to stay calm and own Cineworld or not. It's volatile both ways as it is a huge player with 20% margins in a massive industry but is directly impacted by the virus and ongoing attempts to curb it with as much debt as AMC.
Hopefully the 24th will show that our business is being well managed and that there is not horrendous cash burn. AMCs recent release showed they had reached quite favourable agreements with landlords and lenders, i would hope Cineworld have achieved much the same and we can slowly see attendances across the world creep up.
FYI Tenet is amazing.