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"bluebuxton" AMC , also looking at CHAPTER 11. ,
a Couple of years ago comments , before they were saved by Reddit APE followers etc , I'm wondering if the WSJ reporting this leak ,is a tactic to stop a possible repeat of anything like that happening to Cineworld from the mass of shorters deep in this share ?
Not sure if this has already been pointed out but I'm reading up on AMC' s history and they also were looking at Chapter 11 when their share price was at its lowest point right before they were saved and became a meme stock on Reddit
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/26/how-amc-rode-the-meme-stock-rally-to-revitalize-its-business.html
Thanks Mountainous :-) Hope you are doing OK through all this. I agree with you on the RNS
Hindsight is a wonderful thing. We have all made poor investment choices at some time. You just hope the good ones will outweigh the bad. If you have followed the standard advice, to spread your risk over several sectors and companies, you'll always live to fight another day.
Unfortunately, this BB has the whiff of a few others I can remember: Debenhams, Flybe, Sirius Minerals et al. I doubt it will be here for much longer. GLA
ah - you mean like you when the trolls are at play on EZJ, IAG and NEX? If I got even half as uptight and angry as you seem to get on a regular basis then I would indeed be concerned. As it is I was just calling you out for saying something that was blatantly and demonstrably untrue - no more, no less.
Would be best if they now sought Suspension of Trading until clarity on fresh funding and an ability to continue trading is made clear, as until then there won’t be an orderly share market. Even seeking funds for Bankruptcy Proceedings, is being questioned and who knows what pressure some Lenders are now exerting on them. In the end though suspect this will be yet another name lost to history.
So not 'literally' then at all? Just another troll post.
same happened with mcolls, sky news report then gone
Jtan: "Cineworld: literally filing for bankruptcy"
I think you need to look up what the word 'literally' means. They are preparing for it and even this is from a rumour. However, I believe the rumour is likely to be true but only as an option should discussion with lenders fail. There is no 'literally' here.
Even if they do end up filing for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy then the business will continue in some form and the prospects for shareholders will not be hopeless. They will though be even more grim than they already are - there is no hiding from that I'm afraid.
I don't understand why anybody expressing a negative view is immediately branded a shorter with a hidden agenda. The reality is that posts on here will never impact the SP, Its just a discussion forum and reasoned opinions should be welcomed but when anybody pointed out the Cine debt burden was so high as to be existential threat they were immediately jumped on. A bit of humility wouldn't go amiss and it would be nice if some of the more vociferous LTH's would actually concede that they got this one wrong.
@BlueBuxton, glad to hear from you. This has been ROUGH. Sure is giving me a different vibe to the AGM a few months ago.
We are both down by a huge amount, so for now we just have to wait and see. I’m just hanging tight and waiting, maybe this could turn around :)
@Blue Buxton, was defiantly tough to read as it was coming out hope you still enjoyed the film! the deadline article seems to inject some more rationale discussion into things and for Cine to reiterate the same line as the RNS was encouraging even though I would have preferred a flat out denial
I don’t know enough about the Chapter 11 process - from what I have read so far it isn’t the same as what we associate with bankruptcy here with companies going into administration it seems like Cine would retain control of the business and give them breathing space to figure out how to managing things going forward- what that means for us lowly shareholders I am not sure so we just have to wait and see I guess
@strike when that debt was agreed Cine +regal was a pure cash machine - the risk of a default was considered to be very low hence the issue of them not having much by way of assets was a consideration and a concern to lenders but was ultimately not considered a material risk as they didn’t envisage a 300 year in the making black swan event like covid taking place
I say that because someone close to me was working with them on a past transaction and the risk appetite was high because lenders never saw an event of the magnitude of covid emerging during the period they would be paying back their debt and interest
@HNS_77 I have to admit I'm not doing great today as I've probably lost everything :-( I was in Cine watching Fishermens Friends 2, I checked the SP before it started and we were 8p so I sat through the movie feeling disappointed. When the credits rolled we were 4p after the news had broke from Wall St. I left the screen in shock not knowing what to do with myself. I couldn't bear looking at this board, the news or the SP until late this evening. I've only really looked at the last few pages there is so much rubbish to crawl though to find sensible posts from our usual friendly crowd
I don't know what to think as it's still sinking in :-( I would love to be hopeful and say this is all stage show before the appeal OR a way of bringing Cineplex to the table OR they are hoping a Reddit short squeeze campaign saves us as with AMC.
In fact let's start a short squeeze on Cine right now!
https://reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets
If its for any of these 3 reasons it's turned out to be a dangerous gamble.
But then it's really sobering to see the reports on the main news and it's all a massive worry :-(
The post earlier from RS2002 with the deadline article saying is promising, what did you make of that? Are they back tracking having to put that out advising they are still open for business and exploring options?
I wish you and your wife had been advising Mooky all along ! :-)
HNS, in the past accounts from CINE, do you see CINE owning any asset ? How much were those assets in the past pls? The reason I ask is that if CINE doesn't own any of the real estate where screens are or the sites not worth much then how are the lenders going to get their money by making CINE go bankrupt?
HNS - I agree the losses do seem quite paltry now compared to what theyve been through...to pull the plug on $bns of debt for a few £m now on a business in an industry on an upward trajectory - just seems bizarre.
Even if it hasnt got anything to do with CP (admittedly i have been one of those to suspect this), hiring advisors could be to advice on a number of different scenarios - rather than a simple wipe out.
Blue Buxton how are you keeping up today? Any thoughts on what’s going on here? I don’t know about that although my wife would certainly give him a run for his money - I always run my figures by her before posting them on here!
HNS, if those numbers are accurate, we could have raised it before Wednesday... at least the bare minimum to survive.
Thanks for the calm and reflective posts HNS_77 and calculations, if only Mooky had hired you to replace Nisan as CFO! :-)
Ok then I’m pretty sure mooky & co would of known About this months ago, & the dessert of films (bad management) can only be the reason ?
@cruis - it’s pretty straightforward to extrapolate from historic breakdowns and a few assumptions
2022 FYE 2022 FYE 2022 YTD 2021 2020 2019
Revenue $3,081 $3,081 $1,955 $1,805 $852 $4,370
Cost of sales -$2,154 -$2,154 -$1,366 -$1,262 -$888 -$2,736
Gross profit / (loss) $1,140 $1,140 $589 $543 -$36 $1,634
GP% 37% 37% 37% 30% -4% 37%
G&A 88 88 55 ($88m) ($103m) ($103m)
Cash generated from JV - $23m $50m
Adjusted EBITDA $1,052 $1,052 $534 $455m ($115m) $1,580m
D&A1 511 511 319 ($511m) ($618m) ($702m)
Adj. Operating (Loss) / Profit $541 $541 $214 ($56m) ($733m) $878m
Rent -468.7 -455 -349
Debt -325.0 766.0 478.8 -311 -245 ($523m)
Adj. (Loss) / Profit before tax -$253 -$225 -$265 ($823m) ($1,327m) $355m
Tax charge 167 167 104.375 $167m $414m ($62m)
Adj. (Loss) /Profit after tax -$86 -$58 -$160 ($656m) ($913m) $293m
2019 Cine % of total revenue
Box Office US 1859.6 42.56%
Box office UK 405.7 9.28%
Box office ROW 270.8 6.20%
Retail US 953.9 21.83%
Retail UK 156.7 3.59%
Retail ROW 129.7 2.97%
Other US 396 9.06%
Other UK 86 1.97%
Other ROW 111.2 2.54%
HNS with due respect you haven’t got a clue what the revenue is, how the hell do you & your posh friends know who’s drinking & Eating what
What else can we do? From 120 to 80 the to 44, the 24, then 14, the now 1.9p! God bless cineworld!
Good evening fellow shareholders hope all are keeping well. I appreciate the level headed posts that have been shared from the usual suspects Bonkers, Mountainous, Wellington , Crumpets , TS , Hex etc to name a few
Clearly not a good day for Cine and a collectively painful one for us shareholders. Experience is hard earned and sometimes you pay for it directly from your wallet
Ironically just as this story broke I had completed some calculations that showed at mid August estimated revenues of 1.9bn that Cine would have an adjusted loss (after all expenses including financing costs) of $160m and a Year end position of -$58m . This compares to the $658m loss of 2021 - a vastly improved position
I am very confident these figures are accurate as I extrapolated these off the 2019, 2020 and 2021 annual report figures and cross checked these with my partner who is a banker and qualified accountant so knows her stuff.
The point of sharing this is that despite these being below the 85% base case it shows a massive improvement in position so to pull the plug in a dramatic way just doesn’t seem plausible.
If the reports are true about the Chapter 11 then there could be a multitude of factors driving this decision and doesn’t necessarily mean it’s a binary wipe out for shareholders.
Let’s wait to see what next week brings, I’m sticking around to find out.
@Hexam Yes, the assumption that every twist & turn is Mooky playing 4D chess to bring Cineplex to the table is very dull. Plus the assertion that Cineworld's best ploy for getting the judgement overturned is to tell the Appeal Judges that one of their colleagues (and probably a personal friend) is bent and deliberately ruled perversely in Cineplex's favour because she and her husband happen to know some Cineplex executives hopefully isn't Cineworld's preferred option.