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There* ffs
Covid is different from the common cold or flu.
We vaccinate yearly for flu, because their are so many strands that "evolve". If covid was the same, I'd agree, but research shows that it does not mutate, and if it does, it will likely be weaker. Its one strand that we are vaccinating against.
If it does end up like the flu, then we, as humans, are basically f**kd.
A vaccine with 100% efficacy will change things - will it be that good? No.
If it isn't rolled out, then a positive sentiment is short lived.
The public are in lockdown because some selfish people didn't follow the rules. Now we have restrictions that effects all of us. Cinema attendance is low because of the lack of films AND people don't want to go because of COVID.
A vaccine isn't the silver bullet and the economy will continue to play second to human lives. The economy won't be back as we know it.
The experts have figured out that a second wave is on its way. Its time to pay attention and be less selfish and think about other peoples lives.
I'm seeing a drawn out revovery for CINE if people don't take the pandemic seriously.
If that's the case indep, then kiss every economy good bye.
Say hello to fashisim, science fiction type control and say hello to dictatorship and communism.
You think our 10k? 100k? 1m will matter if this happens? Our money will be worthless.
I hope you are right Ian, but vaccines are not guaranteed - its a wait and see scenario. It could be positive but not sufficiently positive to make the CINE shareprice rise.
A vaccine will change everything whether it’s rolled out or not.
The public are sick of all the restrictions, hence the government are having to enforce them.
Cinema attendance is low because of the lack of films not because people don’t want to go.
Once a vaccine is out the government will completely take the breaks off as they need the economy back.
I am hoping there is no major 2nd wave at all though.
Chief science officers scare graphs have already been proved wrong.
There are so many vaccines in the pipeline. With a good few in stage three. This time next year, the medical landscape will be a lot different.
If you think that it will take the UK and USA, two of the most developed countries in the world, who on the surface, value human life above everything else, 2 whole years to vaccinate their population from a potential deadly virus, you are wearing a tin foil hat.
Indep you still waiting to buy in or what?
Its either buy in between 30p-40p or never imo. It won't go lower than 30p, unless its for a right issue, dilution or bankrupsy.
Longshot - there is no evidence, it's speculation. Sorry to hear you are that heavily invested.
Right, I keep on hearing Disney this, that and the other. Is there any basis for this at all, or is it total wishful thinking? And I say that as someone far too heavily invested in CINE.
Tomorrow is another day. Once debt is renegotiated. Then long term liquidity is solved. At this price there is plenty of buying interest. Look at the general markets and everything seems to be down today. I feel Mooky and Disney are cooking something up away from prying eyes and the market is cautious as they know all it takes is a leak of a studios interest for the shares to spike up...
If it goes further down I'll have to sell, coz I don't want to lose everything - that's the take home message from indepthwins. I don't see this recovering anytime on this side of the year.
If it goes further down I'll have to sell, coz I don't want to lose everything.
This is a recovery stock. It comes with associated risks that no one is unaware of. This is reflected in the share price.
Covid has not singled out cinemas within the leisure and hospitality industry :-)
Whilst the debt score has been downdgraded from CCCC+ to CCCC- I stand my earlier post; those who frequent this BB are NOT trading debt securities. We are trading equities securities by way of stock purchase/sell and taking spreadbet positions, be that long or short.
The debt score is something the Cineworld lenders will need to consider if they want to trade it with other debt security traders. Given it has scored lower, my take is that they will hold onto the debt and await Cineworld to pay it back. I know that pre-covid, Cineworld made progress to reduce this debt form $4bn to $3.3bn (2018 to 2019) so it is within their means to do so on the basis of a recovery and that will come gradually, it won't be overnight and a vaccine will certainly help.
With regards to the default rating, I don't make this up. You will need to read it for yourself. You can Google "what is the default risk of grade b debt" as Fitch still score Cineworld as B. It will come up as 6-9% risk of default - again a risk that lenders will need to concern themselves with as personal investors, don't ("all together now") trade debt securities.
Is this a risk free investment? No
Does this present a high reward if we see a vaccine and in turn admissions for the risk? Yes
DYOR and make the call.
I have CINE as an investment in a diverse portfolio.
lower volumes making the SP more volatile + wait until November for Bond.
Bond's more general appeal than Tenet and a likely long play time in the cinema should start to generate decent cashflow and enable the general cinema market to ride it out until a vaccine(s) is(are) approved properly.
Waiver should be an almost given. Landlords have little other choice. If you kill your tenent you have no tenent, whether that be cinema or shopping centre etc. This 'limited landlord choice' is proving true across all retail/hospitality sectors.
If you listen to the live interview last week you will hear mooky and the financial representative say they are confident in getting the waiver
I've kept hoping that CINE would be a recovery stock but it just keeps going down and down while I wait for an entry point.
@mrobs
It looks like no one wants to answer you. The answer is simple CINE are in financial mess and the sp reflects this.
What does this mean for the share price? Is this why there has been a drop today?
Don't forget that we investors are trading equities by way of shares.
We are NOT trading debt securities. We are not lenders who have an interest in trading or selling off Cineworld's debt.
In some respect, this means lender will need to HOLD onto their debt that Cineworld owns and ensure they support a recovery to drive it down.
That's All We Need Now - S&P downgrades Cineworld's long-term debt.
I can't find the [Standard & Poor CCC- negative] apparent downgrade from their website.
[Hence S&P downgraded its rating on the company's long-term debt from CCC+ to CCC- with a negative outlook attached.]
Published 28th September 2020
https://www.pilling.co.uk/home/profiles/news-and-research/external-news/article/?category=news-and-announcements&slug=sp-downgrades-cineworlds-long-term-debt-on-expected-near-term-liquidity-pressures&story_id=7657247
LONDON (S&P Global Ratings) Posted on April 30, 2020
PREVIOUS -S&P downgrades Cineworld Downgraded To 'CCC+
https://www.ademcetinkaya.com/2020/04/cineworld-downgraded-to-ccc-on-weak.html