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https://www.boxofficemojo.com/month/?ref_=bo_nb_di_secondarytab
Slightly stronger weekend than last weekends No Time to Die release weekend.
Benefits of strength in depth of high end movies :-)
Two full weeks to go, $140m per week and we will see c. $700m month.
First two weeks come in ave. c$155m.
Could be a stretch but not unreasonable I think to at least be approaching that now.
Just found this from 2 days ago.
https://deadline.com/2021/10/no-time-to-die-uk-box-office-dune-venom-1234856318/
I enjoy a once in a while drop in over there to rattle him sammy :-)
Tend to agree there does seem to be a fairly strong case for folks (after what we have all experienced last two years) want to be out out more than ever. Living life and spending having fun outside their personal "jail cell" of last two years.
May take us more than few months but can definitely see good case for a strong future business.
*Disclaimer this author holds shares in company spoken about therefore may have a biased view ;-)
https://www.hulldailymail.co.uk/whats-on/whats-on-news/gallery/first-look-hull-cineworlds-new-6071502..
Was in six fields Northampton, Friday and Saturday ( performing glamdad duties).
Cineworld busy busy busy ,ten pin bowling busy busy busy , as we're most restaurants around .
People are now out out , enjoying life, spending money..
Hell, I fed the slots, the other machines with £25 of 10p,s , just to watch it spew out red tickets , which were exchanged for a 25p bouncy ball and 2 x 10p lollies ..
Short term, the cine SP will be manipulated with , tinkered with, played with and its gonna frustrate , anger and distress you - but as sure as gegs are scrambled eggs - another 4-6 months , we shall look back with a smile and wonder what all the fuss was about .
Oh, FYI, lthtrust ( aka indepthloses) is firing on all cylinders on the advfn chat board , reciting news from 55BC , talking of debt , streaming, low box office , interest rates , Iranian nuclear attacks and Martian invasions
He really is banging his head against his damp bedsit wall..
Ain't life a daisy :-)
Went for a rewatch of Venom tonight and it was PACKED TOTALLY.
Foyer was completely packed, poor staff looked very tired out. Massive queue even at the ticket checkpoint to enter the screens itself there were so many people.
4DX was completely and totally packed solid, except a few single seats every single one was occupied. Leaving the film, the foyer remained very busy.
Business is booming, there is no stopping this company now as long as there is no lockdown or anything like that. I will be very happy I put money into this company a few months down the line. All imo.
Hi small trader, I agree with you, we need a catalyst other than box office news which are not moving the price for now. In terms of momentum, certainly the broad market has been under pressure, especially reopening stocks are not performing and still in the middle of capital increases and right issuances. Yet I do not see cine as a trend following stock, i consider it a high beta with high volatility and potential for under/out performance with regards to the indices. After touching 80 briefly, we have been down and not able to sustain a decent rally, somewhat surprising given box office is undoubtedly good news. Uncertainty weighs on the court case and the fund managers short base adds to nervousness as these guys are out there pushing sp lower daily, it is not easy to understand if and when they will cover the shorts, what triggers they may have in terms of prices or news or else. As I mentioned, assuming a conservative stance for court case, the game changer could be the Us listing, I really hope cine won’t need it if price recovers in q4. MT
Get well soon Smalltrader X
Sorry to hear that smalltrader, wishing you a speedy recovery :))
Have yourself a great weekend :)
Good afternoon Mountainous, I picked up cough from kids and have fever too so bit down at the moment. Need to go back to office from Monday but I got an excuse now! Have a lovely weekend.
spot on and good afternoon smalltrader, hope you’re keeping well
MT, despite all the uncertainties, we went up from 60s to 84p. We also had Polaris increased their stake. And not to forget, 700mn shares are still with the institutions including Mooky's and no one has sold as we didn't see any such holdings RNS. So IMO, we are back down to 60s not due to uncertainties. It is all about sentiment and momentum.
We are down from 84p to 60s due to the wider market conditions. ITV, TW, BT and other FTSE 100 stocks were down too and still not recovered after the Evergrande and inflation scare. Saw an article today that said that FTSE powered up with investors shrugging off inflation and even DOWJ up too.
We need catalysts to push these stocks up. Coutr case outcome will be one big catalyst and soon after that any news on US listing would be another one. We are due for trading update as the last one was only till June 30th so investors need to know about trading in Q3 and that is why I mentioned that it could be in November like the previous years.
Considering the above catalysts, now is the time to accumulate. Even a director purchase can kick off upward momentum. AIMO.
Not a problem and good morning to you FunInvestor, hope you’re keeping well.
Definitely not a given, but let’s hope for the best :)
Great post Mastertrading. Good analysis.
Yes my apologies. There have been some years with a November update, but I don't think it's a given by any means.
As I said before, I am in at 70 usd and planning to hold at least until q2 2022. I am trying to stay positive and realistic at the same time. Price action in the last few weeks wasn’t great to be honest. We have a lot of headwinds. Short term the court case is creating uncertainty, I know most of the contributors here are optimistic on the outcome but until it materialises we can consider it a negative. Second, the company has high debt, more than 4 times market cap, servicing it has high costs and could drag future profits even in the best case scenario. One thing is saying the company has no problem servicing debt, the other thing is using most of its profits to service debt. Third, the short base is worrying, it has been increasing recently, making cine the most shorted stock in Lse. That implies constant pressure from money managers, taking advantage of the illiquidity in the market, using leverage to manipulate sp down.
On the other hand, the positives are clear too.
Th court case may have a good outcome, the cineplex request seems excessive even in the worst case scenario and we should have a resolution by year end.
Fundamentally, the new movies are well received by public, cinemas are full again and I think it is going to last. There is a great will to go out and enjoy life after the pandemic and people have money to spend after savings. That means that liquidity is improving fast for cine and it could be the base to address high debt in the future. This is a key point in my opinion, even if profitability lags behind because of high debt, solutions can be found if the underlying business thrives.
Third, the short base is concerning and increasing but, once the court case is out of the way and q4 2021 shows solid numbers, there won’t be a good reason to stay short. We have seen what could happen to sp once short covering squeeze takes place, namely an acceleration and panic buying from the speculators. We are not there yet at all but just saying it could happen once the tide turns.
Finally another big positive: the possibility of us listing, mooky hinted of it which makes it a real possibility at some stage. I believe it could be attractive for various reasons, perhaps just a spin off of us operations, I am sure it would be a game changer for speculators too, see what’s happening to amc for example. It is an atomic option which could be used in case of stock under performance next year, tbh I don’t care about impact of dividend tax once the sp doubles on the back of it!
In conclusion, I don’t think we are out of the woods yet but I think the pent up demand mooky was talking about is real and is not going anywhere. Probably better to switch the screen off for another month or so. Unfortunately my plans to trade in and out with 30% of my position are on hold until we get above 70 p again. Good luck to the longs in here and nice weekend. MT
Indeed BlueBuxton, it all seemed a bit fragmented.
All in all I enjoyed it though :)
Hello FunInvestor, smalltrader pointed out the other day that historically we have usually seen a trading update in November/December.
Of course, I’m not in control of when they release one, but based on past events it looks like one is on the horizon :)
I don't think Mr Mark is ever going to live the bus incident down Mountainous, he made a complete horse's arse of himself and hopefully Goodmans are embarrassed of the association :-) He must have been hallucinating on Miss Rosenthal's stash the night before to dream up such an insane analogy :-)
The last scene on the beach in Venom after the quickly scrambled conclusion was also just like a comedy sketch? Surprised to see Golem directed it too!
Yes I believe there will be another Aquaman, I really liked the water ride on first one in 4DX :-)
What makes you expect a trading update in November? Year end is December and results usually March with I think a brief update in January sometimes!? As is fairly standard with companies.
I love these subtle references to Mr Mark’s bus company and Miss Rosenthal’s cannabis hahaha
Indeed, the ending was very very quick. The film went at a normal pace at the start then started speeding up and the ending came fast. I must say the 4DX was probably the most intense I’ve ever had it (my 5th 4DX), so that really kept me on edge lol
Aquaman sounds like a fun one in 4DX too, I believe another one is coming next year if I’m not mistaken?
Glad you enjoyed it more than I did Mountainous :-) Maybe you had a good ride in the 4DX chair! I'm seeing Harry Potter in 4DX with my Sister in a few weeks. The best experience I had with that was Aquaman where they used loads of water obviously the floor was drenched in the Telford 4DX screen lol
Yes I was sadly disappointed with Venom I really like Tom Hardy and to see he co-wrote it made the disappointment even worse :-( The voice was sounding like Brian Blessed to me and far too comical to be of any threat, the CGI very lazy and overused and didn't you feel it wrapped up really quickly at the end? A bit like a modern Dr Who reboot episode (ie David Tennant suddenly conveniently finds a button that wipes out every Dalek hovering the planet in the last 5 minutes)
Halloween Kills was as expected, I'll try again with Last Duel over the weekend. Seeing an animation in the morning about polar bears I think - can't remember what it's called lol. Getting maximum use out of unlimited anyway!
Ive actually had more fun watching the trial than today's 2 movies, come back Mr Mark on your special bus - very entertaining :-)
Good evening all, watched Venom in 4DX 3D today.
BlueBuxton doesn’t seem well pleased, however I personally enjoyed the film. I hope to watch it again sometime soon. It was quite short and I can see where BlueBuxton’s CGI comments are coming from.
On the other hand, the cinema was packed solid and the concessions stand had about 5 different queues and pretty much all the tills were in use. People were flowing into the cinema for the next showing, very busy indeed.
Looking very forward to the predicted trading update in November, I’ve never seen the cinemas this busy ever. When Mooky was talking about pent-up demand he definitely wasn’t joking with us about it :)