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The US figures are readily available for all and yes January has been sh. 1t.
We know the reasons, move on lets measure by end quarter, then half. Quarter on quarter business has recovered since reopenings.
Lejjb, first of all - don't take my response as personal. I have no desire to block you or anyone for that matter. I am merely calling out that misleading posts to encourage others to sell to satisfy your cheaper entry are wrong.
Regards to the box-office claim that "unless you have US comparative figures, the UK ones are all that professional investors and traders can use to gauge commercial success" this is simply incorrect. If Cineworld had a 50-50% split you could forecast with a degree of accuracy, however as stated several times, when Cineworld's UK operations amounts to just a little over 10% of their estate and you forgo the other 90% of their box office admission, you have to heavily caveat that claim which you did not.
As for THG, the SP declined to 160p since your 191p push to then 120p - a 40% drop. I held off buying THG as I could see it declining and when the Russia/Ukraine situation hit I managed to buy and I hold an average of 130p, some 30% cheaper than the "double bottom" you called.
I suggested you put in a DYOR at the end of your comments when posting technicals, so not to mislead other investors.
Thank you!
I won't comment on them, people can see for themselves....
Here's the US figures:
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/month/to-date/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses
Lejjb...
You're right the markets are volatile, we are also coming out of Covid, confidence has been rattled..
IMO the market is in correction, Imo most stocks are at or very near the bottom re SP...
As the days /weeks and months go by markets and investors will get momentum and imo cine as well as quite a lot of others offer a great opportunity...
If you want to look at the dark side that's fine it's you're choice...
It's my money so if it's OK with you I'll make my own choices... Win or lose...
I also can't understand that someone with such knowledge would want to spend so much time on this BB, that's a compliment because I'm assuming your a multi millionaire?
Personally wouldn't worry too much about the January comparison with 2019. 1917 was released in January 2019 and probably accounts for most of the 50% difference. There are no "big" released this month in the UK. (Scream and Belfast are doing OK and the tail end of Spidey is keeping things respectable).
RS2002
1- box office figures: you totally ignore the point I was making about SEASONALLY COMPARATIVE numbers (i.e. Jan vs Jan). And unless you have US comparative figures, the UK ones are all that professional investors and traders can use to gauge commercial success.
2- The THG post that you dug up: the SP increased by approximately 6-8% after the post that dug up deep. so the short term analysis was correct. I was admittedly shown wrong in the medium term however.
If you are worried about the impact that my researched and fully backed-up claims (whether they turned out to be correct or not) make on your confidence, feel free to block me. I don't think however, that what I write has any influence on the price of companies with the market capitalisation of CINE or even THG.
Lejjb, I don't make posts personal but you at risk of losing credibility.
This thread was commented where it was explained that using UK cinema box office figures alone, was misleading when you appreciate that Cineworld's UK estate only comprises 12% of their estate. The US makes up 75% and is more relevant. Universal's Sing 2 was released in December there and has carried over into January there so whilst we in the UK may have had a reduced movie slate (because Sony's Morbius moved to 1st April) a lacklustre quarter is certainly not a given, particularly as we have 2 more months to follow.
I appreciate you are looking for a cheaper entry but I would ask you be more considerate with misleading posts.
You have been ramping THG for some time with some misleading technicals. Case in point, you posted on the THG BB:
Board: THG (The Hut Group)
Price: 191.40
Good technical signal
12 Jan 2022 10:29
lejjb posted:
"I pointed out yesterday that the daily candlestick looked like a bullish harami - the shape changed and we were only borderline after the candle became red, and this look more like a doji (look again on Investopedia for an explanation). However, today's clear rise is a confirmation of the change of momentum to bullish.
The MACD has also gone from red to pink, also announcing a possible (but not strong yet) move to bullishness. But more interestingly, we have clear bullish divergence of the MACD.
And finally, it appears we have formed a double bottom."
The share price then tanked ~40% to 120p. Please be careful and post up "DYOR - don't take my posts as accurate" as investors can take what you write for truth and be out of pocket.
Big thanks to psvrichard for showing us that link with UK cinema box office figures.
It is looking surprisingly bad for January, which would explain the re-increase of reported shorts a few days ago.
Shorttracker.co.uk
https://www.bfi.org.uk/industry-data-insights/weekend-box-office-figures
Watched Dune in Leicester Sq imax yesterday… it was quiet mid day- but you just can’t beat cinema experience.
A lot of good films to come looking at the trailers… so I’ll be going more ofte
@Onlyonewhufc
It's January.
March hasn't happened yet.
The market was looking to see if the language was becoming more Dovish, as it would seem that the Fed is tightening into a slowdown, but it wasn't.
Sorry, just to add the markets factored in an interest rate increase in March of 0.25 followed by 3 others inn2022, none of this happened apart from people selling shares and losing their hard earned money...
They expected an announcement that interest rates would go up in March by 0.25%, this did not happen, so lpd is correct in his statement.
Why else would all the panic have taken place?
I fact, depending on how inflation plays out interest rates may never go up?
Same as everything else, panic, panic, panic!!!
@latpulldown
*Narrator's Voice*
'No one in the industry expected rates to go up at this meeting'
I doubt it metom.
The Fed kept interest rates on hold until March (when many thought they were going up).
@Fun
It is tedious that people don't understand that it is entirely appropriate to have a mixed capital structure of differing types of debt and equity.
The question here, which has never been sensibly debated on this BB as far as I can remember, is whether the underlying business will return to profitability/ growth fast enough and of sufficient scale to cover losses incurred over the last couple of years and thus get back to a sustainable position whereby the business is adequately capitalised and all suppliers of capital are rewarded for their investment via interest/ dividends and meeting liabilities/ refinancings when they fall due.
People talk about the Cine rocket, which is an appropriate analogy if one considers the underlying business being the thrusters. Will they provide enough fuel and force fast enough for Cineworld to escape the clutches of gravity and thus fly off into outer space or will they be found wanting ending up with it falling back to Earth?
UNB1,
The company does not require to pay all its debts right now.
It "may" even NEVER be debt free (depending on economy and prevailing rates at the time I hope it is never debt free.) So long as the company uses the funds from debt to improve the business, be that growth or estate improvements.
We should expect company to look to pay down/refinance most recent and expensive debt and also to pay down or extend/refinance debts due soonest.
Big movies slate looks good and is encouraging for company and industry.
I would say, without further clarity of a prolonged period that we do want to be seeing some moves to increased numbers of release. So far that lack of depth is something of a concern.
Gonna throw this out there as curious to see others “unbiased” genuine thoughts on my suggestion.
With regards to debt, yes, we have some, but I do wonder whether for now whilst we, as a society, are itching to get back out there properly and resume normality... with this being said, there has been, is, and will continue to be a hunger for those pleasures (such as the cinema). I reckon we’ll have a bumper year based on that thought. We also have a bumper year of yet released films to rake through... some probably still queuing up to be released due to maximising response and therefore willingly or reluctantly ( Covid restrictions) not releasing them as yet.
Based on this thought process, and going with the premise that we don’t have anything major to affect us, I think we still have a healthy continued resumption north on the sp.
Stating the obvious here, but we have all sorts getting involved with CINE, from day trading pi’s to long term ii’s.
I’m going with the hunger angle combined with a queue of films alongside, positive trends sentiments ( not ignoring Ukraine) and simply that the sp is still stupidly cheap.
Gl,all UNB1
Keep hold your pants tomorrow . Us is going to bring another tornado as always
52 movies for Jan 2022 vs. 165 movies in the same period for 2019. Is it a fact people want to go back to the cinema if we have disaster Box Office it’s 100% because of a lack of movies not because of Cineworld or people
Still in: mainly because I was persuaded by the convincing words of those who declared that the Cine case was solid. Mrs M said to pull out - she very rarely says that- because it was Cine who broke the contract so no brainer. Before the week-end Mrs M recommended a further sell off of other holdings before war was declared and my portfolio plummeted. How perspicacious! I will continue to read the relevant contributions by the self-declared cognoscenti to BBs with interest. However, I will listen much more closely to the advice of Mrs M with whom I last visited a picture house to see "The Poseidon Adventure" errrm, yes, first time round. She has declared that Cine could give her a bag -full of popcorn and pay her to eat it but 007 must be dead by now so the latest film must be made up, very boring, long, and probably noisy. And how strange to have a man like a spider: ............another glass, my sweet: errrm don't mind if I do: let's put on one of our favourite DVDs
(madstork stays silent as he interrogates thesaurus.com for another word for 'disastrous')
Totally agree Fun, there are many levers that affect profitability, any one of which may be better than in their base case scenario to offset any shortfall in their admissions assumption (which come the end of June may not be a shortfall anyway).
TheMadStork whilst your objective post is appreciated, it is flawed.
1. You are using UK weekend box office to base your forecast for Cineworld's entire global performance when you need to appreciate that UK cinemas make up just 12% of their estate. The US where 75% of Cineworld estate is most valuable and appreciating that Scream (5) did very well and in fact obtained their entire budget ($24m+?? marketing) in the first weekend (MLK) of $30-40m, it did very well and then appreciate that Spider-man NWH is showing great legs as it has reclaimed the top-spot again in the weekly charts.
2. January is a slow month, as FunInvestor has posted, you need to look at the quarter to give you a more accurate projection. Morbius deferred from January to 1st April means it will be a Q2 performer now.
3. You have not accounted for concessions or advertisement revenues, where advertisement is applicable, I posted this a few weeks ago, 2019 witness ~$500m in advertisement revenue, it is ticket sale agnostic - Cineworld will get paid regardless to the number of bums on seats. This is useful because it is reported that cinema advertisement is looking very bullish and will return to 2019 levels. Source: https://www.thedrum.com/news/2022/01/14/cinema-spend-near-2019-levels-almost-every-advertiser-returns
So in summary, you are cherry picking information to base a flawed forecast.
Time will tell but as we see Omicron has peaked in the UK and the expectation is the US will too. Source: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jan/23/fauci-omicron-us-peak
Cineworld is well placed to recover this year.
Yes Hexham, the industry (and likely Cineworld) have not so far consistently reached/passed that base case level. Achieved (pretty much) October and December, November was a fail.
January will be well short, but I assume the company want to measure in more than one month periods as we all know One movie can make all the difference e.g. Bond in October, Spiderman December.
I think FAR too much has gone into the 90% case and talk of what not hitting it means.
By the company's own admission they did not recently yet know how much effect their coat savings has made (and they have made more by cutting more poor locations and added more strong locations.
Box office is one line of revenues
Revenues is one line of profit and loss.
Few weeks we have the FY accounts which will lay bare a clearer picture and each month we can refer back to Box Office Mojo for industry Bix office to give us a reasonable idea of progression.
It has so far given decent insight to what to expect from companies own stats.