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Froggy, at the phone-in following the leak about the the 12p fundraise, I asked Larry whether he would consider buying a producing asset to avoid future fund raises. He thought there was little point buying what he called 'an annuity' with the proceeds of the fund raise and that Char's business model was to make 'transformational' oil and gas discoveries. We all know that didn't go well.
I also was hear years ago but never said much just read the board I remember back then somebody saying char should buy into a stake in a producing asset can not remember who it was one of you might have a idea
Consider though that this is not a farm in for an exploration well / licence with only prospective resource.. This is a farm in to a proven resource (361 BcF 2C), with significant add. resource potential, with NPV $687m, strong ESG credentials (critical right now) and a development partner (SLB) to fast track first gas.
Question then is why would CHAR discount value by any more than 50%? E.g. $30m per 10%, so close to $100m for release of 35%.
The market will be in for a shock when the partner deal is announced.
Worst, worst, worst case, lets say $15m per 10%. This would secure $52.5m for 35%, which again, would be sufficient to fund 50% of the Appraisal AND significant cash back in our bank to see this project through to Debt funding / cashflows (2024).
I sense that this type of offer would be seen as 'CHEEKY' considering it values the asset as >80% discount to NPV - thus I think we can be confident terms will be significantly better than this.
We are trading at $30m MC... which shows the potential!
35k more shares to my cause this morning. Have to pay over as abroad and telefon transaction but it's just great to get in still low compared to what is hopefully coming. I was here 10yrs ago then got out - too early - but Chariot is a slumbering beast that's getting a few kicks to its harris.
I think worst case $30m per 10%, so close to $100m for release of 35%. This worst case scenario would secure the appraisal/explo/production well AND sufficient cash to CHAR to see the project through to debt funding / cash flows... without dilution.
In this scenario, the shareprice explodes upwards from 9p!
Hi Wiggly, Tbh, I have no idea of the package going out or coming in , there are so many conutation’s to take in of what will be and will not be covered and fair value to apportioned. Remember we have been told we are not going to give any equity away cheaply and anything done will be in the best interests of the company and stakeholders/ shareholders. My gut feel if it is for the appraisal , exploration and development well/ of Anchois we should be looking at about $25 -$30 mm per 10% release of Anchois only. So a little bit lower than your estimates, but I may well be right out of the ball park here. With a sector turning by the day into a new bull energy and resource cycle again ( this is a given for me this is what we are entering ) and the quality of this asset improving by the day , we could literally be talking about increases in valuations of Anchois by the week here... One thing I agree with all the comments, I feel we are extremely close on drilling partnering on Anchois ( to what extent of the greater Lixus licence I do not know) and news is really not far away..... Excitement abounds for Chariot shareholders this year.
Shareholderchar, I like your thinking...do you think Rissana was offered to CHAR in partnership with ONHYM to increase the attractiveness of the Anchois/Lixus licence (which is also in the interest of ONHYM) thus securing the new partner(s)?
Also, appreciate your feedback on the below. Is this unrealistic or in the ball park of what we can expect as part of the farm-out deal?
NPV10 @ $500m (which is the 75% for Char). Revenues of $1.5b, Capex repaid within 2 years. Huge upside potential (8 x Anchois!!!)
On this basis, CHAR could concede 50% of its stake, reducing to 37.5% / offering 37.5%, in exchange for ~$187m cash injection, enabling 50/50 split on the future exploration/appraisal/production drilling.
This would put a rocket up the shareprice and fair trading value would be 50p, with massive upside potential.
Agree with comment last night, CHAR have somehow got themselves into an unbelievable position, with a market that looks to be at the stat of a new super cycle!
Posted this , mainly for the perspective it shows re Anchois and the other 7 similar areas and potential developments that all this news we are hearing does not currently cover. This gives you the sheer scale of the potential of Lixus. It is multiples of Anchois x 7 or 8 and still growing with further resource upgrades likely ( as communicated by company ) Anchois sits inside Lixus, which then is surrounded by our newly negotiated Rissana mega licence which incorporates 1.4 billion barrels prospective resources of oil in Kinetra and Mohammadia and significant other new leads all with similar attributes to Lixus and Anchois. We have agreed terms with SLB to develop Anchois only, nothing else at this stage... please remember this. Anchois is only the tip of the iceberg. The $64,000 question is, are we looking to drill partner for appraisal on Anchois only or will we be looking for exploration wells as well over the other leads ?? Imo , whatever the scenario we partner for drilling, not only will the drilling partner have to cover those costs but also pay Chariot back costs and bonus payments as well. This has long stopped being a drill carry only partnering licence ( it never was IMO) ..
https://www.chariotoilandgas.com/operations-overview/morocco/ The above will show you how Lixus is surrounded by Rissana . Things to note here that you do not need to be an industry professional to take notice off. 1- Nearology to Shore and facilities and the Maghreb pipeline into Europe. 2- Energy hungry market for both domestic and business. 3- Ideal for multiple subsea tieback and manifold operations at low cost.
Som I have news to come on Morocco alone, it could easily be multiple RNS’s per month alone, and then you have everything else thatis going on, Brazil, Namibia, exciting new ventures.. Chariot could literally turn into an RNS machine and we know Chariot ONLY ever release RNS’s with full collaboration and vindication of facts. They do not spin.
Such an exciting year ahead IMO, all in a world playing catch-up with massively increased energy demands.