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It could fall another penny or so I suppose. If it does, I'll add to my position, because anything around 10p or under is just too cheap to ignore. It could however, also just as easily, go up by 5 or 10p tomorrow or the next day or a week from now on an unexpected RNS announcement and stay there and even go higher still. You need to be exceptionally lucky rather than skilful to time the market in such a way.
When gas starts to flow in 2024, nobody invested will care if they bought in at 8p, 10p or 12p when the SP is 85p+
Yes, I do follow some of ST work, among other micro/small cap investors who have a good track record of beating the market and I am very aware that he has rates this as a recent buy.
The majority of my positions are in funds and companies with solid fundamental metrics - As stated before, this was a ‘speculative buy’ for me on the momentum of positive news; I suppose you could argue that in this particular position I could be classified as a trader.
I personally feel the price will fall in the short-term but will rise significantly in the medium/long-term (2024 onwards). To clarify, I do not dispute the significance of the findings, my view is that the recent rise is part of a momentum trap and the price will tail off in the coming months - I look forward to hopefully being able to secure a longer-term position at a lower price, if not successful then I wish you all the best!
The traders and derampers should perhaps reread What Simon Thompson wrote last week:
The Anchois-2 well has encountered multiple high-quality gas reservoirs with a calculated net gas pay totalling more than 100m, or almost double the level in the original Anchois-1 discovery well. Net gas pay is a key parameter in reservoir evaluation as it identifies penetrated geological sections that have sufficient reservoir quality and interstitial hydrocarbon volume to produce commercial quantities of hydrocarbon.
Analysts at house broker finnCap note that Chariot estimates that the Anchois B sand prospect has a calculated total net gas pay of more than 50m in two stacked reservoirs of similar thickness. The upper reservoir is a continuation of a reservoir drilled in Anchois-1, with the lower reservoir being newly identified. It suggests upside potential to the 247bn cubic feet (bcf) pre-drill 2C contingent recoverable resource estimate in the high-quality reservoir given it has a 3C resource estimate of 375 bcf. To put this into perspective, finnCap’s risked valuation of the combined 361 bcf pre-drill A and B sands 2C resource is US$215m (19p a share), but if the B sands 3C resource is assumed then the brokerage’s valuation rises to US$300m (27p a share).
@AP-invest In fairness, you aren't talking about the same thing. You are a trader, so you trade. The majority of people lose money when they trade in & out. You may also be an outlier, but we will never know as internet anon, can't verify your profits etc.
As an investor, buying and holding a stock with decent fundamentals for 3-5 years usually beats those who try and time the market.
Time in the market always beats timing the market ~ Warren Buffet.
Shareholderchar
"The fact is the did hit the A sands which proves it extends further out than first expected and they thus sampled the dry gas from it." - There is a big difference between sampling and "evaluating productivity". They must have already had samples from A-1 A sand, and acquiring more was not the stated objective anyway.
"As far as integrity goes, A1 has proved it has full well integrity. Nothing more to add." - where do you see anything confirming A-1 well integrity? They found A-1 again and "coupled".
With O&G RNS, it's often more accurate to interpret what they don't mention, and when you have stated well objectives, and the RNS doesn't confirm those are met without good reason (I see none provided here), you have to read between the lines.
The Anchois 2 RNS stated:
"Previously discovered Gas Sand A was not targeted in the Anchois-2 well, due to the intention of evaluating it in the subsequent Anchois-1 re-entry operations, however, the Anchois-2 well encountered gas bearing sands at this level providing important additional subsurface data... The Stena Don rig will then move to the Anchois-1 gas discovery well to perform re-entry operations with the objectives of assessing the integrity of the previously drilled well, and if successful, providing a future potential production well for the development of the field."
Today's RNS states:
"Anchois-1, the original discovery well drilled in 2009, was efficiently located and the wellhead was inspected, prepared and successfully coupled with the Stena Don rig confirming its potential viability as a future producer well... To maintain efficiency a decision was taken to not take a Sand A gas sample in the Anchois-1 well as gas samples were successfully obtained in the previously drilled Anchois-2 well."
Arguably, the company could have better explained or expanded on the "efficiency" explanation, whether in the RNS itself or in the interview just given, as that term is rather broad. Hopefully, they will do so in the coming days and weeks.
I agree. Appropriate market reaction to the RNS.
I speculatively bought in preparation for Anchois results and sold at 11.91p with a 46% profit margin. 46% in 7 weeks.
I have no doubt that this company will reach higher double digits in the future and I will plan another entry point when price fall to single digits again in preparation for a longer game. Remember 2024 is two years away from now. I have no doubt that the company is in a stronger position in terms of future projections with the recent appraisal of Anchois-2 but time is money in this game and until consistent revenues begin to stream through the share price will be very volatile and ultimately reactive to speculation.
Good luck to all that continue to hold here; there are some very knowledgable posters in this thread but there also some who show signs of confirmation bias and endowment bias.
For now, I see this as a speculative momentum trap until production and revenues come on stream.
Good luck all and take care.
In my view, this is a typically ambiguous and vague RNS that throws in false positives, and may be disguising not great news about the condition of A-1. Too much use of the word “potential” for my liking and well objectives not achieved. Well objectives as per Chariot.
- Assess the integrity of the previously drilled well.
- Evaluate the productivity and gas characteristics of the discovered A Gas Sand.
- Provide a second future production well for the development of the field.
“inspected, prepared and successfully coupled” – so why not re-enter as planned?
“confirming its potential viability as a future producer well.” – the fact that it exists means it’s “potentially” viable. One of the stated well objectives was to “assess well integrity” and which would confirm its viability without doubt, and not “potential” viability. They have not done that as far as this RNS suggests.
“To maintain efficiency a decision was taken to not take a Sand A gas sample in the Anchois-1 well as gas samples were successfully obtained in the previously drilled Anchois-2 well. “ – so why was a sample planned in the first place? Well objective was to “evaluate the productivity and gas characteristics”, which were presumably missing from the original evaluation of A-1 by Repsol and is important data. Previous RNS confirms A sand not targeted, and suggests A sand wasn’t significant in A-2, and would be evaluated in A-1. Nothing changed based on results of A-2.
Approx. 35 days into a 40 day programme with stated well objectives, so should have been well within budget.
Not what I was hoping for, but even if A-1 is not a viable producer, and an additional well is required, I would not expect it to impact the project dramatically. These appear to be relatively fast drills, so hopefully low cost. A replacement well for A-1 may even be positioned to optimise targeting of A & B, offsetting any downside.
Not a great RNS, and the market sees it too, but I still think the “potential” (to coin a phrase) here is massive and will be holding for the long term.
Great RNS, no shocks and gives us a well with all integrity tests passed as well as 100% support for a fast tracking of the development of the field from the Government, couldn't have been better could it?
An extremely successful campaign that has derisked potentially several trillion cubic feet of gas in the Lixus licence area and the greater Anchois field.
Adonis Pouroulis, Acting CEO of Chariot, commented:
"I am pleased to announce the completion of our very successful Anchois gas appraisal and exploration campaign, offshore Morocco. In addition to having now two confirmed gas discovery wells, we have directly de-risked a material portfolio of prospects on the Lixus licence area.
Our ambition is to bring the Anchois gas development online as quickly as possible, to fuel Morocco's economic growth, but also to deliver near-term cash flows to the Company. We will now look to conduct further analysis on our findings, to optimise our development plan for the field, with both wells earmarked to become potential production wells, as part of an accelerated field development plan for the benefit of all stakeholders.
".... We look forward to working with Chariot in order to quickly progress the gas development." it helps a great deal that the government partner & joint-owner is not only on board but seems to be in a hurry. That's not to be underestimated.
What a complete success this has been could not have wished for anything better.
Should have a great future.
GLA
Nice update
Roll on first gas flow
Great update
Lovely