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SHC, is that you?
I have checked the James Watt Space Telescope pics and the CPR is on its way..!!
It will be three weeks tomorrow since AP told us the CPR would be published 'shortly.' In geological terms, three weeks isn't even the blink of an eye, but this is worse than waiting for Christmas. Come on Adonis, give it over.
Molehead,
You are quite right. My business was on an exchange that lacked liquidity and one mischevious day I placed an order for 1000 euros at double the share price. The priced rocketed and all the brokers were p****ed off but we did it to prove a point about how laughable the stock price was.
I don't think aim is that bad but it is a bit amateur at times.
Deal Breaker, You are quite correct. This has nothing to do with these mythical "MMs".....Chariot is listed on AIM which is an order driven market. As you say, liquidity can be v thin as evidenced by the UCT at the close on Friday of 4 shares. This alone took the price down 0.4p.
Folks,
IMO this is nothing to do with MM's. Aim simply lacks liquidity which is why you also see some absurd spreads.
We just need to wait for the CPR.
GLA
Darkini-----i know this will sound like a bit of a cop out---- but i just don't know at this stage.
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---If you look at the trading over say, the last week----then it's obvious that the MM's are not seeing institutional support, and so they are playing with PI's------
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-Every rally sucks in a few more, (and drains their pockets), --and as soon as the buying peaters out, then they drop the SP, leaving people locked in.
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-My guess is that the MM are running a short position, and they will continue to do this until something changes.
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-Next week could make or break the 18p level----------------if it's broken then we could see mid teens-----if it holds then 18-20 is the range again until we get solid news.,
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-Sorry it's not much help---but it's how I see things at this stage.
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-Would I trust a Monday rally----no.
NewKOTB, what's your plan? :)
Redeyemines, really appreciating your posts recently, good to get such good analysis on the cautious side. Your post of 9.32 this morning: that logic would seem to work well with IIs who are already holding, but would a good CPTR not attract the attention of new investors? Or do you reckon most of the action would come from those already holding, looking for the right moment to increase? Thansk in advance
"a UT trade of 17.70p at the close, points one way.." As mentioned by n1shares, as being odd, how can the UT be an indication when the total value for the trade was 71p for 4 shares !!! UT's are to 'tidy' the books at the end of the day, nothing more nothing less. Although I do agree, it was a very strange amount given we are so close to the CPR, I can only guess that we had no one willing to sell. So in that case, an 'indication' it may be to sellers having dried up !
AIM shares are notorious for manipulation , CHAR is no different .... we have close to 1bn (~£170m) shares in issue, yesterday only 1m (~£170k) shares traded and closed >4% down ... CHAR SP could go anywhere on any given day should anyone with a half decent holding or cash want it too, fwiw, my take is serious, controlled accumulation has been happening for many many months now and when this share begins to rise, volume will show our true direction.
On announcement of Anchois-2 in Jan we traded around ~40% of our shares that month in the range of ~7 to 12p. So you can understand 'lack' of buying on run up to CPR .... investors have already positioned themselves and have probably de-risked to some extend ( given placing's ) up until now !!
No doubt, there will be a lot of technical traders eyeing ~22p, smash through that and hold above into the close will be a massive result and leave many traders wonder 'what if'.
Sell, hold, buy or try your luck trading on RNS CPR spike, your choice .... I know my plan ... :-)
One thing over the years CHAR SP has never been guilty of is being .... BORING !!! don't think that is going to stop anytime soon. atb
aimo & dyor
The 17.7p UTI was for exactly 4 shares and was worth less than £1 which is very odd the later closing trades for many more shares was significantly higher.The placing seems to have depressed the share in the last week or so but I am confident that as soon as the cpr comes out the price will go up significantly,just like it did from the last placing at the end of last year.
I think we may get a farm out announcement along with the cpr.
Chariot have repeatedly stated they are looking at strategic partnering.
In any event, with Russia expected to cut gas to Germany and gas prices to treble chariot is in the right place at the right time.
Can’t believe the low share price.
J
Let's see what the CPR says. Hopefully it's an upgrade across all classifications (P10 to P90) and that Anchois achieves 1TCF
Not sure you have your figures right capex, ATM we are valued at approximately 35% of cenkos suggested value, so 35% of £1.41 is roughly 50p
Capx, ------------"what does the SP do following the CPR"-------that's an interesting question.
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-Of course it depends on where the SP is at the time---------so lets assume it's around this (18p) level.
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-Now lets have an honest show of hands.
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-They come out with a GOOD CPR and the sp opens up @ around 23--26p
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-Hands up all those of you that will go into the Mkt and buy.
----Now
-Hands up all those of you that will sell.
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-That has answered that --
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-You see the trouble is, we have "all but" had the CPR.---Gas gas everywhere and then some more gas, --all we don't know is the exact numbers, ---but I expect Jimmy's numbers wont be too far wrong-----so in reality it's already there and in the price.
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-The ii's have their positions and wont be jumping into the Mkt, no matter how great the numbers, ---and PI's are up to their cash limits and looking to make (or take) a profit.
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-So where to now------does the sp need to fall before the II's come back in again, or will they support the 18p placing level------------This remains to be seen.
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-Certainly, if the SP gets down to say 16p and THEN we have a good CPR, we would almost definitely see some II buying, but not beyond, say 20-22p.---Any buying beyond that level, at this time, will again be just PI's.
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-Monday could be a good day to test the SP ---a UT trade of 17.70p at the close, points one way, ----but the normal Monday rally away from the placing price, could point in the other direction-------we will have to wait until mid-weekish to see the true trend.
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-But with PI's lining up to sell into any CPR spike----24p looks about the best we can achieve for the moment.
Just setting a strategy for taking profits and I wanted to pose some thoughts and do a sense check with some of you on
here for the potential share price following release of the CPR. Well understood that nobody knows what the market will make of it, but it is always good to plan ahead.
Cenkos risked share based upon 361bcf was £0.51 share and the market is roughly valuing CHAR over the last few weeks at around 18 to 20p share. If we get a CPR that is say 1000bcf, then Cenkos risked share price ought to be 2.77 x more so £1.41. The market however may value this at around £0.90 share adopting the ratio between the Cenkos share price and the average market share price over the last few weeks.
Any thoughts on this?
It's ok Speed, I'd marry you...followed by a quick divorce!
If she does speed you know you'll always have an admirer on here, that danlowence seems to be totally obsessed with you.
You could end up with your very own "Annie Wilkes" :-))
Happened last time and then we went for a 3 bagger. Same again.
kr2
Falling back to the placing price was almost nailed on. It's what happens after most placings
Thanks for clarification Jimmy. Can't wait to see how close you are to official CPR figures.
I agree there will be a farm-out. I expect it will be announced - subject to approvals - before end Sept. Who will it be ? Repsol, TotalEnergies or ENI ? They would probably want to operate. CEPSA perhaps ? My money would be on one of these.
Hi snott,
In an ideal world that’s how one would proceed,
I suspect chariot need some contingency funding, so hence the farm out.
At present , assuming the new volumes for anchois are audited at 1000 bcf and chariot have 75% interest. If a farm out occurs and drills successfully the volumes would increase to 2000 bcf at say 50% interest is net 1000 bcf plus cash in bank. Hence the logic of a strategic partner.
Jimmy
Aljimon
You are correct, I rushed my posting.
I am expecting 2c resource for anchois of 900 to 1000 bcf.
Obviously , when the finance and capex contracts are finalised this would usually be classified as a reserve.
The remaining potential in the anchois sattelite I expect to be probable 2c resource and prospective resources.
Jimmy
Jimmy,
You post so much good stuff i am reluctantly agan pointing out your incorrect use of PRMS terminology.
"2c proven reserves" do not exist. 2c are contingent resources. See slide 21 of latest corporate presentation.
So what precisely are you expecting ?
Thanks AJ