We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
I believe we will end up with 5+ TCF of gas at Anchois . The potential is huge and most importantly is on Europe's doorsteps where we are hungry for gas
@Daywalker From revenue.
1Tcf @$8mcf = $8 billion in revenue.
2Tcf = $16 billion revenue.
3Tcf = $24 billion revenue.
If 2024 is the date set for the production wells to be brought online then that’s less than 3 years from now. The renewable projects are longer term and as I understand it, Chariots rather modest stakes in these renewable projects can be increased on an go-forward basis, which could tie in quite nicely with their timeline for producing sellable gas and diverting revenues from transitional energy to 100% renewable energy.
Although likely, I said I was not 100% convinced that Chariot will partner with a major or a supermajor on Lixus. Meaning I’m 90-95% convinced they probably will.
If it's option A and Chariot goes all alone & debt finances the project where do you reckon the equity for all the renewable projects is coming from?
Offtaker agreement is with an international energy company, not the ONHYM. The ONHYM could stipulate that power stations get priority over first gas which is fair enough and easiest solution for Chariot as they are all located near the shoreline along the Lixus / Rissana licence area.
Maybe the ONHYM were waiting for the reults of Anchois-2 before rubber-stamping on Rissana. Both Chariot and ONHYM have been talking about Rissana as a done deal for a while now.
When do we expect to have the Rissana licence formally awarded? And does anyone think the existing terms will carry through, or might the Moroccans be looking to 're-negotiate' it given the stakes are now higher and the strategic importance given the supply from Algeria coming to an end?
Point A I) I made earlier.
I) Morocco needs this gas to come online soon & is actively backing Chariot to develop Lixus as soon as possible and is even about to increase Chariots licence area by x5 by incorporating it into a larger licenced area called Rissana.
With the supply of Algerian gas via the Maghreb-Europe gas pipeline coming to an end. Morocco is desperate to find an alternative source of gas to make up the shortfall that's quickly approaching their country.
I get the feeling they are willing to move heaven & earth to help Chariot get this huge gas discovery piped to shore. Possibly including underwriting the entire project. Afterall, it is a public/private partnership in the truest sense which is of national strategic importance.
hi Bdc
The most obvious low risk add on are anchois north and O footwall at circa 450bcf, this must surely have a chance of success at 65%
The critical success is that the seismic spectral decomposition was 100% accurate in predicting the gas reservoirs in anchois 2 . This obviously derisks the entire greater licence area.
The value here is just huge and will be appreciated by a farmout partner for the non anchois licence area. There is just so much good news in these results.
Jimmy
Hi Jimmy,
At least double.
And their geological thesis for the area was also proven 100% accurate. It was just a case of officially proving it and Anchois-2 did that.
750Bcf-1Tcf in proven resources but what do they have in probable resources with 65%+ CoS?! My guess is multiple Tcf.
The chariot December presentation reported they expected free cashflow from from the proven A and B sands of 361bcf as $1.5 billion, we have reserves now of at least double that and confirmation from Morocco state oil company they look forward to a quick development.
Financing this will be the usual time consuming, but it’s very doable and with chariots strong reputation on low cost drilling there will be a lot of banks lining up to provide money.
A small farmout to get anchois north drilled and footwall O sand is all that should be considered at anchois. Farm out the rissana new licence for a multi well carry.
Very achievable.
Jimmy
Although likely, I'm not 100% convinced Chariot will partner with a major or a supermajor on Lixus. It all depends on what their long-term vision is for Chariot the company.
I see Chariot having 3 options to choose from.
A. Go it alone with debt financing the project and full support from (maybe even underwritten by) ONHYM & the Moroccan government itself. This isn't as hair-brained as it may first appear, for several reasons..
I) Morocco needs this gas to come online soon & is actively backing Chariot to develop Lixus as soon as possible and is even about to increase Chariots licence area by x5 by incorporating it into a larger licenced area called Rissana.
II) Adonis is not a conventional O&G CEO. He is an entrepreneur, so he isn't tied to conventional O&G thinking.
Conventional O&G thinking would be to partner. But if Adonis calculates that Lixus would generate significantly more revenue by going it alone (and can secure the debt financing in place to do it), then he will go it alone.
III) Look at all the MoU's and agreements Chariot have already put in place.
Offtaker agreement MoU signed with major international energy group. Debt financing MoU signed with African Finance Corporation and an investment bank. Collaboration agreement signed with Subsea Schlumberger and formation of a “One-team” collaboration with Chariot for building the projects infrastructure.
IV) Chariot have one of the world's best drill team Managers in David Brecknock. He's proven to consistently drill wells both under-budget and quicker than expected. He is an asset in and of himself. Putting David in charge of drilling new additional wells would be a much more cost-effective move than handing operations over to a major or super-major.
The following two options are also in play and would be more typical for the industry...
B. Partner for backcosts plus a discounted buy-in. Keep majority stake in the project.
C. Sell majority stake or full stake for a large amount of cash to a major/supermajor, maybe keep a minority stake. Concentrate future company focus on renewables.
Whichever option is considered, they all value the company at multiples of the current share price.