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Great post MAJWandCo. Very good thought process and clearly demonstrates the upside potential of CGNR from these levels.
With all the recent statement from AAZ regarding their JV with CGNR its clear that it will go ahead.
In respect of AAZ and any conflict in the area of their current ops I would be surprised if that had an impact on plans elsewhere. Why would they stop looking to the future and how they will continue with producing gold, their main source of income.
I hold shares in CGNR but the potential of all out conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia does worry me. The first priority of AAZ must surely be the mines in Azerbaijan. I'm just hoping it doesn't throw a spanner in the works as that is a feeling I am familiar with as an investor.
My scepticism also comes from the clutch of failed minnows I got into, JV or going it alone. Went through a period 10 years back of chasing these dreams and they all lost. IT was a time when you were supposed to find stuff in the ground then get bought by a major. That stopped happening, so some tried to go it alone. Goodbye 'investment'.
AAZ does bring a decent small scale track record to the party, I will concede. I would rather buy onto AAZ though and get the gain that way. Maybe after the war thing settles down.
Anyway, have fun with it. No harm if it's a controlled percent of your portfolio, and well done prof. You pulled it off. Never thought you would get round to it.
MAJwand that is eloquently and succinctly put.
Excellent summary.
I have to say, I just don’t understand why people post on the boards of shares they do not own. What a waste of time. Anyway that won’t change.
What will change is the market cap of Conroy Gold and as you rightly point out it really could go north big time.
Apologies for using the phrase multibag. I had never heard the phrase until viewing these chat boards....
Mole man,
Thanks for the reply, reading your response is clear to see that is very much looking back rather than forward. The company has never had a Joint Venture partner...
I must stress again, I’m fully aware of the history of the company, it’s dilution of shareholders in order to progress the company is effectively 95% of AIM stories.
My entry is timed to coincide with the JV, call me lucky with the timing, or call it calculated- i don’t mind.
“As CGNR holders you'll only get 45% of what the JV makes“
Strange statement this one... that’s a huge % to retain for a small outfit like CGNR, in fact I’m incredibly surprised they have managed it. You will obviously be aware that GGP will ‘only’ keep 25% of the Havieron deposit?
There is a very real chance that Conroy could end up with an attributable resource greater than that GGP (It’s a pipe dream at this stage, but the numbers are clear as day)
GGP (15m oz * 25%) = 3.75m oz
vs
CGNR (8.8m oz * 45%) = 3.96m oz
GGP’s market cap is 77x that of Conroy so you can clearly see that their is room for vast improvement here. Even understanding that CGNR will almost never get to the same level of GGP, you can surely appreciate that the gains from an £11 mcap market company are potentially wonderful.
The beat up, good for stocks of yesteryear are often the ones that can provide the best gains. Hopefully the JV is formalised soon, the AAZ CFO let slip “Ireland deal is done” on the presentation last week, make sure you check it out at 20mins 23secs.
All the best
MAjwandco, I am not in. It was a purchase I made years ago and after about 6 months realised it was a dead donkey and got out with about 30% loss I think. The prof split off the diamonds side, it used to be conroy diamonds and gold, and they just did resource upgrades followed by placing to pay their not insignificant salaries. It just made me angry so over the years I checked in to let others know the game.
The JV is a game changer potentially I admit, but I fear it will be the usual prof mad excitement, followed by years of declining SP. If you get a pop on some news, take some profits at least. As CGNR holders you'll only get 45% of what the JV makes. Within your 45%, AAZ will get their extra shares in CGNR, so a double dilution of sorts.
If AAZ do first exploration part they get 25%, and can walk away and keep the 25%.
AAZ plan to spend €4m prospecting. Dalradian have spent $190m already in Ireland and still no mine. They now have protesters camping on the land too. The JV will need more money and time than the heads of terms suggest I think. More placings, more dilution.
The diamonds prospect is in Finland. Karelian, KAR on the LSE. Another one with years of resource upgrades and placings, but no mine.
What about the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia? Don't think that was mentioned in the presentation but could have a big effect on AAZ business.
Napthman,
It's a deal, 23rd December we'll catch up and compare % gain from the current price of both CGNR and GGP.
Sincerely hope GGP do the 200% for you, I'm not knocking the (excellent) company by the way. I'm just confident CGNR will do that little (a lot) better.
All the best!
Also MAJeand i will make a mockery of you with your obviously uneducated post :) ill see you in December when greatland has doubled to tripled Frm here. Just to note my initial Investment if 1.6p in greatland topped up all the way to the 4 grand o bought yesterday at 20.28 that i have taken out of conroy. Much better chance of a triple GLA
Majwand no i get it from the experts, conroy is nothing Until the contract is signed but trust me ill be back if it does and put my investment back but just to pint out 3 mins in gave a listen
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/925125/greatland-gold-s-havieron--on-the-path-to-becoming-a-tier-one-gold-asset--says-peter-o-connor-925125.html
Napthman,
Anyone who uses the term ‘bagged’ or ‘bagger’ can often write their knowledge of equity investments down on the back of a postage stamp. It’s typical language seen from the many of the ‘Pump and Dump’ crews, and somehow the language has become common place across the forums.
Anyhow, where did I get my GGP knowledge from. Hannam & Partners just over a year ago stated a total expected resource from Havieron at 4.2m oz.
Beyond then, through hearsay and confirmatory bias this has risen to 5m, 10m, 15m and now most recently 20m oz. This latest figure may well be realised.
Hence why i used this latest figure below within the calculations. GGP will be the beneficiary of 25% of this figure- Even the top end estimate made a mockery of your ‘bag’ comparison.
Moleman,
Sorry to hear you (and others) are 95% down on your investment, that is unfortunate, and I already made a point of saying historic dilution is a kicker.
However, for those that are investing now off the back of the JV with a buy in at 34p:
If the share price for example gets to 68p in short order, you will actually now be 90% down on your CGNR... ‘so what’ you might say.
However the new buyer of CGNR shares will be 100% up in their 34p buy in.
Also, please read the August funding RNS. Any near term funding will be issued by the means of Warrants, these warrants are only exercisable at 35p. So guess what, you can now buy in at cheaper than a warrant holder.
And also, you will read from that RNS that if the warrants are exercised within the 6 month period. They will become a beneficiary of a super warrant which is only exercisable at 100p (200% premium to today).
The company is cashed up now, and any near term funding has a floor price as per the previously explained.
Good luck all
Let’s hope we are both right!
Fingers crossed and as you say, GLA.
What little do you know about what ggp has. I was just popping back to see if me selling out was ghe right move and so far im right. Ill bob back in December when ggp has 3 bagged frm its current sp of 22-5p. Fingers crossed you're at 99p but i dont think you will even have a contract signed by then. But i do wish you luck Somers but i think youre wrong.GLA
Very well put.
Real genuine chances of a multibag here.
Yes it may be a little while, or may be sooner than we think....
But without a shadow of a doubt, this share has more of a chance of multi bagging than GGP has from this point in time.
GGP has been amazing and yes there is more upside there I am certain. Definitely it knocking GGP.
But, from £850 million to £1.7 billion, or even £2.55 billion? Seriously? If anyone believes that they have drunk far too much of the GGP ‘cult’ coolade.
I guess the deal will bring in fresh speculators, but long term holders did not see virtually no gains. Holders from back in 2012 have lost 95%.
Jolly good luck to the new ones coming in, but don't expect anything to happen quickly. The prof himself is saying in the press that 4 years is optimistic for a mine opening. 2030 was mentioned in one article I found.
Plenty time to bring in resource upgrades and raise more capital, issuing more shares.
AAZ get to keep the joint venture share if they decide to walk away. If a new partner comes in, it will get diluted even more.
Read all the fine print and consider the track record here is all I ask. There must be better ways to get into gold if that's your bag.
I'm seeing an almost identical type of post on this forum as to those seen on the OMI board around no more than two weeks ago.
Long term holders, who have endured virtually no gains from their loyalty over many years now bashing the company even despite the tide turning by means of a JV with AAZ.
Posters on the OMI were adamant Newmont were pulling out, and OMI would languish at low levels. Now we know how that turned out: 250% in a week.
Harboring ill feeling towards a share based on past performance is called emotional investing, it's a sure fire way to make poor investment decisions.
I feel sorry for the long term holders here as they got bashed by dilution, yet if they cant see that this JV is transformational for the company going forward, then I don't think equity investments are not for them.
Napthman1, a delay due to covid is no concern of mine. In fact it's an ideal time to add further funds. AAZ devoted two entire slides in their 30 September 2020 presentation to the Conroy JV - The JV is happening.
Your point regarding sticking your money in GGP for 3-4 bags is delusional, however I will entertain your post and provide my input.
Havieron is targeting 15m oz, possibly 20m oz by the most optimistic estimates. GGP will own 25% of this deposit.
Their due will be between 3.75m - 5m oz of gold at a 750m gbp market cap (15-20m oz * 25%)
CGNR are targeting 8.8m oz of gold (2nd August 2018 RNS) , to which 45% ill be due to them via the JV.
Their Due will be 4m oz of gold - CGNR current market cap is 11m gbp. (8.8m oz * 45%)
Based purely on the metrics provided above:
The chances of GGP market cap going from 750m gbp to 2,250m gbp ('3 bags') - Absolutely no chance IMO
The chances of CGNR market cap going from 11m gbp to 33m gbp ('3 bags') - Absolutely nailed on to be many multiples of the current SP IMO
(Apologies for the long post all and good luck)
Bananaman just like Katoro loads of tweets then nothing. Covid will delay this getting concluded as there us a cash payment due on completion from memory, good look to you still holding but you could do 3-4 bags with greatland by December and is a much safer bet. GLA
I think it will get smashed before that. JV is not officially confirmed but there are significant hints to say that it is imminent.
Will get smashed on confirmation of JV.....mining will move quickly once it’s deal signed