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Hi Sotolo!
I basically agree with you. Interim dividend should be good. 230p should be new target.
But do note how some of H2's production seems to have been pulled forward into H1. Annual guidance has actually been "reduced" from 510 to 540K ounces to 510 to 525K ounces. No news on West Africa again as well.
Risk factors? Mostly things out of Centamin's control... General stock market crash, Covid-19 outbreak gets worse in Egypt and affects plant, Egypt-Turkey military conflict over Libya, Egypt-Ethiopia military conflict over dam and Nile water rights.
Yes indeed ,those figure are well in line.
Should keep things stable at least.
GLA
Nice cash results guys and girls, that looks like a big cash beat.
Reckon FRES may follow soon enough with silver starting to rocket.
Results look pretty good, ounces above what we expected as maintainance slowdown postponed to second half, prediction for year maintained, profits way up with gold price as expected, steady as she goes
Centamin should bust its all time high today, and imho deserves a rerating to a higher PE, and a price of 230, and if gold rises further then more, Let’s just hope the market agrees with me
The Chinese play the long game very well, unlike the US, with their fire and brimstone and off for anther war on whatever takes their fancy. One thinks that the US foreign policies and actions have burnt their social license, and the chap in charge is just adding more fuel...and providing the world with a clear message that the USA is to be nos 1 (and 2 and 3). His team could have worked on a more subtle and strategic messaging, but that's under the bridge now.
The Chinese game would be to gradually (not to shoot themselves in the foot) par back their US treasuries and $ exposures, and to replace them with a more stable, sustainable and better international currency. No need to rush, the US will shoot themselves in the both feet, which is a lot better than shooting everyone else, say y'all.
Given the Chinese positioning on GOLD, one would not be surprised to see a Chine and GOLD backed international currency emerge in the next 3-5 years.... The IMF and the World Bank have shown that their ship load of academic ideological economists have failed in providing any sustainable development outcomes let alone narrative of note since birth and are clearly in need of a sharp reset (there is that word again). Trumps shown his hand with WHO and the UN is just a bureaucratic bungle after another, and I suspect we know Trumps view on them. RESET
The world needs some better financial structures that deliver a better financial model for development...esp for developing countries. Although some marvel that so many have been lifted out of poverty in the last 70 years, there needs to be a lot more openness and frankness about just what the full report card of the last 70 years has really been, and not forget the serious matters that have been kicked down the road..galaxies of debt, millions of acres of wasted agricultural land running on chemical and mechanical agricultural management practices, astronomical investments in arms and military madness ... etc
So the US booted GOLD pegging of the USD out in 1971...there was not enough gold in the world for what was forseen...the other view would have been that gold is a dead certainty to appreciate wildly and be very obvious a metric of the shenanigan's of the future? and I suspect that gold will again re-appear as a basis for the currency of the future. After it is real, humans still cannot create it nor destroy it (a worry?), and it does appear firmly stuck in our DNA.
We live in interesting times!
best
the gnome
Today Centamin Is finally into the top 150 shares in Sunday Times top 200 companies. IF tomorrow looks ok, and the forward view is good, then I believe Centamin could be rerated from a forward PE of 12 to around 15 which would give your share price of £2.30 at the current gold price. On top if the gold price rises then the share price should rise about 2.5 times, so if gold rise to $1900 then we should hopefully see Cey north of £2.50. Wishful thinking......
I shall be looking hard at aisc tomorrow, the less important ounces mined, and anything about W Africa, plus overall forward view, fingers crossed, and then gold needs to hold at $1800, make #1900 and toughest of all go into new territory.
Any little bit of research might be useful: research based on 4 weeks after 2019 mid year interim results:
Two days after share price was up by 8%
Two weeks was up by 14% and 4 weeks (end of august) 24% up
That leads us to approx £2.03, £2.14 and £2.33 based on £1.88 at the moment.
goldgnome,
Which is all and only made possible by the PetroDollar ( am I right ? ) With the Petrodollar currently being challenged by Venezuala, Iran, Russia and China taking oil payments in Euros and talk of a gold backed Petro-Yuan, the gasoline is really about to go on the fire ( pun intended )
Thanks Dasut, I remain optimistic that Centamin won't disappoint on Monday.
Hi Mr Gnome,
Your posts are always informative not only about gold and mining, but also on so many other topics, including the state of things down under that we wouldn't normally hear about, the way you report the political shenanigans of your government always reminds of the late Clive James, informative , entertaining with a dash of humour and twist of cynicism at the same time!
Some of Aus ruling politicians sound as self serving, inept and incompetent as some of ours!
Looking forward to your next update.
Cheers!
Tibbs my pleasure let us hope Monday the news is that we are still on track because given the GP, now is the time I believe to see the magic £2 SP. GLA
'But nothing is absolutely safe in times like these.'....Couldn't agree more and it is scary
Poor old Centamin let’s all help give her a push over 190, so nearly over that hurdle ...and yes to all Tiger
Hi Sotolo!
I see inflation/deflation and real interest rates as the best arguments for the price of gold to continue to rise.
Nominal interest rates are not going up. Certainly, not soon. And perhaps not ever. They can't; the interest on our mountain of debts, public, corporate, and private, would become unpayable, collapsing the economy. Interest rates might drop a bit more and/or go negative; but there is limit how far you can move in that direction.
As for inflation, it's what the Central Banks need. The "best" way out of the current debt crisis, is to gradually inflate away the massive debt pile at say 5% inflation per year. The other alternatives (default or debt jubilee are either worse or impractical). Right now, the Central Banks are battling deflation. But if they want and need inflation, they will find a way to create it in the medium term. And they won't be raising interest rates to combat it once it arrives, that's for sure! (At least, not until it's far too late, and they realise the kitty cat of mild inflation has grown into the tiger of hyper-inflation).
In short, I make this an ideal macroeconomic environment for gold prices to go on rising! But, still, it's good to remember the arguments contra, and to keep questioning yourself!
Just so. The price is a fine balance between those who see reasons for gold to rise, and other to fall. You could add inflation/deflation and negative/positive real interest rates to your list Tiger. On balance I believe up but gold has a habit of confounding a bit like a long term partner (or mine)
Hi GoldGnome!
Why won't gold go to $3,000? I actually think it may well do so, but here are some possible reasons why I could be wrong!
1. Gold is bought in times of fear in the West, and in times of prosperity in Asia. We have recently seen outflows from Thailand as people in economic difficulty sell their savings held in gold. Also, there has been very little recent purchasing from China and India. What if this trend increases, and there is a big outflow of gold from Asia as their economies struggle?
2. What if major central banks decide to sell their gold as an attempt to hold down its price and to hold up the value of their own fiat currencies? Or simply because they desperately need the cash, as per Venezuela recently? Remember, the US and Switzerland may be able to print currency without harmful effects (at least for now), but this is decidedly not true of emerging market economies.
3. Stocks are wildly overvalued, and bonds are in a giant bubble. What happens if the stock market crashes? Will there be another desperate "dash for cash" as margin loans are called in? If that happens (again), I'd expect people to sell what they can for what they can get for it, and gold will always be one of the most liquid assets around. That would cause at least a short term dip in the gold price.
Just a few things to think about. I still think Centamin is about as safe an investment as there is these days. But nothing is absolutely safe in times like these.
Yes Mr Tibbs, I second that; while many like me pontificate on economics and the gold price, it is wonderful to read the contributors who really know about mining so thanks again Dasut etc, or Siko etc for sharing your Egypt or W.Africa knowledge, and especially thanks to all the courteous members of this board who respectfully post their views on where Gold and Cey might go and why, tolerating each others’ views, including Tibbs with whom I often disagree but always appreciate as it is the various views that help group super forecasting, and have helped me stick with Centamin over many years. Now let’s hope we crack 190, and even more that gold makes it through 1900. I remember my excitement at 1200, even more at 1300, but then the two years trying to break 1370. I always promised myself I would sell half my Cey as gold approached 1900, but then I said I’d sell half on the way down when our share price hit 160 3 years ago but never did. I am hoping it will be like that in reverse, just wonder how long and how many goes to get through 1900?
On a shorter horizon hopefully we’ll crack 190 this week, even today, and soon 200
Fingers and toes crossed For Monday
And a final one, ten year ago I bought a gorgeous small Oakwood with a garage and small bedroom, the house had burned down, and got planning for a dream home. I put the money in gold and have been waiting for it to increase enough that the profit builds the house. I was just about there in 2017. Now a larger (too large) house up the road that has been on the market for two years has finally agreed to half it’s price, which would be cheaper and affordable, but I would have to buy selling almost all my shares. And then sell my Oakwood with planning which could take months. I couldn’t bear to be out of the market till Xmas by which time I am hoping the money I make from Cey will make my building cost on flip flop hall. Roll on and lovely for us all to dream tho deeply scary the Coming world that should make us money..
Hi Dasut,
Through your past professional activities at Sukari and your relationship with Centamin the company over the years you have always been a great source of technical information and honest facts, certainly when some of us felt so angry ,let down and hurt by sudden disclosures early in 2018 your knowledgable voice of moderation encouraged us to put the 2018 events in perspective and to consider the true future potential of our Centamin investment before making any hasty or rash decisions that we would later come to regret.
So thank you Dasut for all your input into our forum which helped us to remain strong!
Hi Dasut,
Through your past professional activities at Sukari and your relationship with Centamin the company over the years you have always been a great source of technical information and honest facts, certainly when some of us felt so angry ,let down and hurt by sudden disclosures early in 2018 your knowledgable voice of moderation encouraged us to put the 2018 events in perspective and to consider the true future potential of our Centamin investment before making any hasty or rash decisions that we would later come to regret.
So thank you Dasut for all your input into our forum which helped us to remain strong!
My guess is a lot sooner than 3 years. I think it is as soon as the full extent of the economic mess (es) becomes in view. September 2020 is going to be the first set of glimpses of the global and national messes. In Oz the University sector I suspect is insolvent, International students are being flown in (?!). The Tourism sector likewise, Aviation ditto, hospitality ditto, wine industry (I get heavily discounted offers daily, so much so I have filled the cellar and lounge room!), Victoria locked up (except for International sutudents?) in disarray (25% of Australian Economy). Rent forgiven, loan repayments suspended, unemployment benefits skyrocketing, job retention benefits...and who and how is it all payed for? To top up, we pick a trade war with one of our major customers, and then announce we are fortifying our forces to protect our 60,000 km long coast line...when we have sold more than half of the Australian assets out now ...
Gary Schilling has an intersting take, and has warned investors to not be fooled by the recent rebound in stock prices. Shilling draws strong and highly informed parallels between the current market downturn, the 1929 market crash and the 1930s great depression to sound the alarm on "the most disruptive financial and social event since World War II." "Bear markets that accompany recessions last about 11 months, far longer than the recent slump," Shilling said of the current US equity index rallies.
Shilling warned that in 2021 he believes stocks could fall as much as 40%. So where does an investor go ... Cash in the bank in Oz runs at effective -1.95% interest rate!
Prior to the 20s, Shilling wrote, the Dow had seen a matching 48% fall from January 19, 1906 to January 7, 1907 during the financial crisis spurred by the Panic of 1907 - the period that led to the creation of the Federal Reserve system (!)..although there was widespread interest in equities in the 20s, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, only 10% of Americans owned any. The buyers that stepped in pushed stocks up 48% until April 17, 1930 but the bullish times didn't end well as the Dow eventually ended up losing 89% from its September 1929 high...etc
Shilling wrote the pandemic is "likely to be the most disruptive financial and social event since World War II with equally long-lasting consequences."
There has been a global lack of quality new gold discoveries (lack of epxloration$, deeper orebodies, grey matter retiring), there is an increase in the time from discovery to development due to environment, social liscense, archeological, anthroplogical issues (no end in sight) and with present prices of course production has been at all time highs, reserves not being replaced.
So for me gold will be sharply on the investment agenda now and into the forseeable future.
Good luck all, but my allocation to gold investment is coming from my cash reserves
best
the gnome
I believe you are right. However, there will be resistance levels along the way. It's the time span which is more relevant perhaps. I don't think any time soon, maybe in about 3 years time.
Sorry about my rant about my new obsession (still obsessed about gold so don't worry) I am still digging to find out the short comings of my prediction that gold is going to go through us$3,000/oz and continue. Can someone tell me why it won't, as I am battling (clearly!)
best, and go CEY
the Gnome
Indeed there is much going on in the world of gold, but in the world of make believe and money all is amazing. The tsunami certainly insight, and in fact is almost with us. I have my Modern Money Theory Primer as bedside reading now, so I can understand some of what is shaping as the new wave of the Millenia, written by an Economist. Coincidentally of course, in February 2019, the first academic textbook based on the theory was published..sigh, worry...students will be forced to study it?
Whats modern money...what was ancient money ...?
Knapp, writing in 1905, argued that "money is a creature (I think he meant creation) of law" rather than a commodity. It is to serve societies needs, and try to make up for all of the shortcomings of various ideologies (there are quite a few!) and economic theories which seem to run the world, and generally run amok. Knapp contrasted his state theory of money with the Gold Standard view of "metallism", where the value of a unit of currency depends on the quantity of precious metal it contains or for which it may be exchanged. Unfortunately gold is not elastic enough to cope with the shortcomings of various ideolgies and theories (hence characterised as a barabaric relict of the past), and threatens to hold those accountable, by exposing the continuing devaluation of the paper money . created at need of the politicians for the need of the people (and on it goes). He argued that the state can create pure paper money and make it exchangeable by recognizing it as legal tender, with the criterion for the money of a state being "that which is accepted at the public pay offices". Profound stuff, the full virtuous circle. The state in effect creates the money which it accepts..funny about that.
Economists are well meaning people, with theories which have little to do with reality (which most of them have never experienced first hand) and hence oddly enough never seem to be able to predict very much of use at all, even great catastrophies (now) ... but when they take over the Central Bank of the world, with various theoretical models with odd assumptions (preclude human nature, avarice, etc) Recalling one of the more sensible things said of recent by an economist ... "The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print money to do that. So there is zero probability of default." A Greenspan. CAN, WILL AND DOES, hence its strength, underlain by control of foreign exchange, equity markets etc...
MMT's main tenets are that a government that issues its own fiat money:
Can pay for goods, services, and financial assets without a need to collect money in the form of taxes or debt issuance in advance of such purchases;
Cannot be forced to default on debt denominated in its own currency;
Is only limited in its money creation and purchases by inflation, which accelerates once the real resouources (labour, capital and natural resources) of the economy
Are we there yet Dad?
Nearly
1
Sotolo just found my golden flip flops wrapped up in my honorary Pharaoh Gold rugby shirt that they Josef and the team wore at the Dubai Rugby 7's back in the day. Sorry goldgnome maybe need an interpretation golden thongs down under. GLA for Monday and here's hoping that no news recently is good news.
Click above fundamentals.
Go down to the final line,it is there.
But does not really mean much.
That figure is if mining stopped and there were no more profits ,the assets does not take into account the value investors hold in the" good will ",an old legal term,hardly used today.
IMO.