Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
hi Razors, from memory your figures do seem seem about right , although I seem to recall the SP did go a few pence higher for a short period in the past, may have been nearer 197p?
Because nothing goes up in a striaght line, slice the rise, re-buy the dip, rinse and repeat, max the profit.
Mrtibbles I did a very primitive search yesterday attempting to discover Centamin’ all time highest share price. I came up with;
190.50 13th April 2017
and
190.80 17th September 2010
Are you aware of the pps ever being any better?
Thank you for all your posts and any response to this question.
Quite so Razor's
The whole 30 odd page BMO report was supplied to me by a very reliable and well connected acquaintance who is also very confident of steadily improving performance and much better times ahead
Unfortunately I am unable to post the whole repost on here.
....how can anyone take profits with such recommendations being banded about?
With the (new to me) shortage of gold still in the ground the risk now isn’t staying in the share at £1.50’s but being out.
Sell at £1.60 and up pops a Barrick bid!
Our Thesis
Centamin provides investors exposure to a relatively
high-quality, large-scale, and long-life asset in Sukari,
that should be increasingly attractive in an industry
that finds itself challenged by short asset lives. In
addition, Centamin's solid balance sheet, FCF potential
and sector-leading dividend yield, make the stock an
attractive investment opportunity
Valuation
Our target price is based on a weighted blend of 1.2x
NPV5% and 9.0x CFPS. Our assigned multiples are
representative of Centamin's top-tier asset, strong balance
sheet and sector-leading dividend yield partly offset by risks
attributed to single-asset exposure.
Upside Scenario £2.25
Our upside scenario is based on a weighted blend of 1.6x
NPV5% and 12.0x CFPS, and reflects strong operational
execution at Sukari including productivity and grade
improvement in the underground and ongoing exploration
success.
Downside Scenario £1.00
Our downside scenario is based on 1.0x NPV5%
and and 4.0x CFPS, and reflects relative operational
underperformance over 2020 including lower throughput
and grade variability from the underground.Key Catalysts
Catalysts include: 1) results of life of asset review at
Sukari; 2) ongoing decline development and exploration
at Cleopatra to delineate additional sources of ore feed; 3)
continued development at the Amun and Ptah underground
mines to improve flexibility; and 4) further resource
development from projects in Burkina Faso and Côte
d'Ivoire.
Company Description
Centamin is an exploration, development, and mining
company dual listed on the London and Toronto stock
exchanges. The company's principal asset is the Sukari gold
mine in Egypt, which began production in 2009 as the first
modern large-scale gold mine in the country. Exploration
programs are largely focused on extensive licence holdings
in Burkina Faso and Cote d'Ivoire.
Bottom Line: We are initiating coverage of Centamin Plc with an Outperform rating and
£1.75 target price. Centamin provides investors exposure to a relatively high-quality,
large-scale, and long-life asset in Sukari that, in our opinion, should be increasingly
attractive in an industry that finds itself challenged by short asset lives. In addition,
Centamin’s solid balance sheet provides significant flexibility against potential gold
price and operational volatility that should enable the company to maintain its peerleading dividend yield. Consequently, assuming operational execution at Sukari over
2020, we see potential for share price upside.
Key Points
Sukari - A long-life asset worth its weight in gold. Sukari’s large reserve (7Moz)
and resource (11Moz measured and indicated) endowment alongside significant annual
production profile of ~0.5Moz makes it a coveted asset in an industry that is staring at
an impending production decline driven by rapidly depleting reserves. Consequently,
we view Sukari as a top-tier asset that should attract a scarcity premium.
Asset duration and strong balance sheet key to capital returns certainty. Having a
long-life asset like Sukari significantly lowers the ongoing capital intensity. In addition,
Centamin’s solid balance sheet with cash and liquid assets of US$349 million provides
significant financial flexibility to maintain its peer-leading dividend yield.
New team brings new hopes of stability. While operational execution in recent
years has been less than stellar, recent changes to the operational team, starting with
the appointment of Jeremy Langford as COO in 2019, have raised hopes of improved
stability. Appointment of a new CEO (Ross Jerrard, CFO and currently interim CEO)
will also be key in terms of communicating the company’s future strategic direction.
Centamin has also strengthened the board over 2019 with the addition of some key
members including James Rutherford as deputy chairman.
Key Risks. 1) Single-asset exposure with Sukari; 2) Political and economic climate in
Egypt.
Key Catalysts. 1) Sukari life-of-asset review results – over 2020; 2) Appointment of new
CEO – H1/20; and 3) Doropo resource update – late 2020.
Valuation. Our target price is based on a weighted 1.20x NAV5% (50%) and 9.0x 2020E
CFPS (50%) multiples. The P/NAV multiple is at the lower end of the range we use for
intermediate producers and reflects Centamin’s relative jurisdictional risk and single asset exposure. The P/CFPS multiple is, however, in line with the average multiple we
use for intermediate producers.