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Cowichan ...thanks for your intervention in setting the record straight. That was very helpful .
I have read by the way that under future licences the share of profit going to the Egyptian Government is going to be reduced to 25% I think , in a bid to encourage other mining companies to enter the region .. They recognised that the current 50% share was discouraging other mining companies from operating there which defeated the purpose of increasing their revenue receipts.
Goldgnome. For some reason I can't actually initiate a thread myself ..do you have to be a premium member ?
Yes if you could start a thread to pool the questions that people have that will be great .
It will also be useful for people to provide some background thoughts behind their questions .
Thanks for the contact email . I had been sending texts to the mobile number listed
Hi Mr Gnome,
Possibly you or Cowichan may care to start such a thread ?
I got an email from CEY, from the Corporate Communications mManager. Try
Which thread would be more appropriate to post your questions on in regard to Centamin?
· A key milestone under the terms of the Sukari Concession ... government was ratified into Egyptian Law no. 222 of 1994,.
The original accusations were made brought against EMRA Centamins partner by a disgruntled politician (Al Fakerani), now a convicted felon in exile who has admitted they nothing more than lies and innuendo made for his own political purposes.
The Egyptian government has never threatened to withdrew Centamins licence, that was a judges decision at the initial hearing based on since admitted false accusations by former politician since convicted of corruption.
There was never any ploy by the Egyptian government to get more profit share.
The original Sukari licence is enshrined in Egyptian law 222
The court case is stuck in limbo awaiting a final ruling (caused by SCC considering Law 32)
Possibly a delay due to number of enquiries received?
Patryk. As you raised the initial question about why profits haven't increased this year despite Gold prices having risen from $1300 to $1800 since 2013 , the following is relevant to explain the comparable decline in profits . There will be other items in the equation too.
1. There has been 8 years of inflation in mining costs since 2013, so the gold price had to increase to pay for that.. If you add 8 years of inflation since 2013 to get a real comparison with gold then the real increase would be much less than $500
2. You need to factor in real increases to costs of sustaining the mining operations. these tend to increase over time as it becomes that bit harder to reach the next tranches of gold
3. More items are being added in to sustaining of the mining costs due to increases in regulation regarding mining safety and environmental reparation.
4. Real increases in costs arising within Corporate admin due again in part to increased admin burdens , , one example is implementing staff diversity , equality , training etc . lately they have upgraded accomodation for employees...all of these are new costs against the same gold prices and none of them produce an extra ounce of gold , apart from at the margins maybe
Ken ..Centamins share price was only 35p in 2013 because the Egyptian government gave notice that they were going to withdraw Centamins licence to mine for gold ..you can't make profits if you can't mine gold ..naturally it was a ploy by the government to extract more favourable shares of profits. It did get resolved but only after a 2 year battle ...just see how much the share price rose after settlement was reached. .
A couple of comments were raised about dividend payments. .these are a distribution of profits not a charge against them , so they won't in themselves affect profits...they will though have a natural eroding effect on share prices , because dividends represent the returning of capital to shareholders , rather than retaining it in the business for future expansion
Mr T....you mention asking questions to the Board of Centamin ..I sent in 3 questions which is all I, myself needed to know about Centamins outlook ..I haven't had a reply
I will post what those 3 questions were on a more appropriate thread .
As always DYOR ..Good luck .
Correct, esp. when you add in the divis paid over this period too.
As does oil companies sp move with the price of oil of course PM miners sp will move with the price of PM's. It's not rocket science. Obviously the sp will also move on a companies personal circumstances. I take a view that the bad news we've had is factored into the sp and I'd like to think the sp will rise with reported evidence of correction on these problems. I also believe that PM's will go much higher going forward, or I wouldn't be invested here. They also pay a handsome divi much much more than I'd get with my money in the bank. I also enjoy the daily movements in the sp and play it like a game of chess, but then I can afford to do that.
I believe you make an excellent point there especially with your referance to the current SP following the wall collapse against other PM SP's
Be interested to see Goldnome and Mr T's views on this
Good Luck with your trading
Thanks for your replies.
Steve 999 CEY are doing quite well then is you knock 25% off for wall failure as other miners are down 50% plus from their highs with no major issues like CEY had last October
Ken, i don't necessarily believe CEY and Gold move in tandem but correlation is not about looking at only 2 data points, it's about taking, for example, daily data points over a 1, 3 or 5 year time horizon and looking to what degree these two are correlated. This is a pretty standard measure of correlation. Your example is meaningless.
It’s because cey and other PMs tend to move on intra day gold moves plus the wall issue wiped around 25% off us. Also ftse and U.K. listed stocks in general have been flattish since brexit decision 5years ago whereas other markets, esp US, have flown
We will rise when the big boys have their long positions. True for the whole sector. I assume they are quietly accumulating with these low prices.
If CEY share price is controlled by the price of gold can someone tell me why in June 2013 CEY was trading at 35p gold was at 1395 then 2.5 years later in November 2015 gold was trading at 1075 and CEY was at 66 which is almost double their share price of 2013 let alone gold has fallen more than $200 an oz so how is CEY correlated to the price of gold.
I’m very interested to your remarks on the above.
Don't worry Patryk ,
All is going well at Sukari, the AISC will start to decline in 2022 and continue to do so whilst production will steadily increase into 2023, POG may pull back, but once the clearing banks have finished covering their paper sell positions then it is more likely to rise in 2022.
Oh dear Sotolo,
Well who would have guessed the Centamin share price is geared to the price of gold?
if you have the holding you claim then as well as expressing your despair on here your time may well be far better spent writing to Martin Horgan expressing your concerns, possibly asking him to explain his strategy and time frame for a return to lower AISC and a return to 500,000oz per annum at Sukari.
if you haven't done so already then you should watch Martin' Horgan's broadcast from the Denver forum, it may at least help you feel better, if not then you really ought to consider the reasons why you continue to hold this stock.
So this weekend why not compose that letter and get it off to Martin Horgan, he wants to hear from retail investors and you will have done something positive which may help you feel much better, it will at the very least make the management aware of another private investors views.
Patryk the difference is last time gold was trading at $1300 Cey was making big profits on it, now if it traded at $1300 they would be making big losses. As such a high cost producer our profits and share price are currently very geared to the price of gold.
Just sit and wait .
As you are an investor not a trader the SP although not pleasant does not represent the value or future value of your investment.
The US as a world controlling Nation is in decline for various reasons ,they will drive all assets down if poss to protect the $.
The current Worlds Trading currency.
If that is lost then they are really in trouble with confidence in their currency, down the pan maybe.
It will take a few years more.
Iv watched CEY share price for years and what is puzzling is that when gold was 1300/oz, the share price was much higher than today and gold is still trading at 1750usd, plus this is a good dividend payer… I can’t believe that one is able to pick up shares here for 90p, however what worries me is what will happen to the SP if gold drops back to 1300 level/ which would not make any sense in today’s inflationary world…