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Thank Siko for the heads up.
If the ERMA come out in favour of Centamin they won’t remain “as cheap as chips” for long.
Thank you again and please post anything you deem maybe of interest. It’s like there’s a drought around here since the last RNS .
Atb
Hi Thunder2040,
(Re- this is one of the worst boards I have seen)..
I know where you are coming from, but I disagree with you. This board has always been the best one by far , especially when Centamin used to be a stable share with the normal ups and downs, with mainly long-term holders here discussing the good and the bad. Even during the times of the court case, suspending the production and stopping gold exports when the SP went down to 20p, the discussion was great..
The problem now is that the 2 recent major drops in SP attracted many new faces who are either frustrated because they got locked in at a higher SP, shorters who want the SP to keep going down, or people who are sitting on the fence wishing for the SP to go down further so they could get in at a lower more attractive SP. This mix has deviated the board from its usual path.
I'm not a holder at the moment, but will look to buy, not much due to lack of funds, once the results of the recent EMRA tenders get announced, which could be soon. Centamin has applied for a few good areas and EMRA is in the process of looking at all the applications now after announcing the criteria for choosing the winning applicants. If Centamin wins any tenders, I will seriously consider getting in for the long journey, regardless of the SP, subject to cash availablity.
Siko
"when cum prefs"
EC
fwiw the only time I know of these sits is wen Cun prefs resume, never seen it with an ord share b4.
My assumption would be that any divi declare would be be for sholders at record date for that divi, even if it included a catch up divi.
But that's only my assumption. I suggest you email the company or their brokers for clarification.
Dividend is back...
"Gross profit, our most important measure of income, grew by 12% during 2020 to £235.7m, with operating profit up by 11% to £93.7m. Cash generation was again very healthy, with no discernible impact from COVID-19. Based on our confidence in the business and a robust 2020 performance we are announcing the resumption of our normal dividend policy, to include payment of the interim dividend previously cancelled in March 2020".
Hi Especial,
Not a situation that I have come across however I would presume that current shareholders would get it as when they bought the share they bought all risk and benefits at that point in time.
What exactly do you mean by missed dividend though?
Best wishes,
Prof
Sorry to butt in here but I have a question for you more experienced traders. If a company pays a missed dividend from earlier in the year, do the current holders get that dividend or the persons that owned the share at the previous ex-div date retain that dividend? Thanks in advance
Thanks Prof
I still think the ore is in the ground, and that the PRESENT management did the right thing in the right time, otherwise it could have been calamatous. These things happen in mines.
I was not impressed with the previous mangement and some members of the board. Its common when founders hang around too long and are out of their competency level, and so it seems to me we have passed through this stage.
The management discussion hit most of the right notes to me, and thats a good first step. They have now to follow through, on time and deliver. I suspect they will under-promise and over deliver (esp given the appallling track record of the last bunch), so the underpromise is in the market now, and the SP dip is the result. I think now is a good time to stock up. Quality orebodeis are few, and I suspect the exploration around the mine has been underdone, and there is ore outside present permits.
I think now is a good time to get West African assets onto the balance sheet, and like to see them do this. They have done well, and coud do even better
If they dont do something MandA will....so add 30% to SP if this happens at least...
best
the gnome
Morning Goldgnome (or afternoon for you),
I know you are bullish on gold, as am I with the exception of a possible ST dip if we see a replay of March. But what is your thought process on CEY, as I know you are very heavily invested here? The slide was unfortunate but not catastrophic in itself but the 2021-22 production cuts, announced with Q3 results, were both serious in themselves and indicative a poor previous management. Do you worry that there could be other hidden issues, such as lower mine life or a weaker mine plan, that will come to light in the future, say on 02 Dec, or do you see nothing but upside from the currently rather gloomy SP position?
I know we have bounced around significantly before and been back to a double figure SP when we all thought that was long behind us. In those instances the issues seemed shorter term (LHBR anyone?) but are the present ones potentially more serious or just ones that will take a little longer to resolve?
Best wishes,
Prof
Sorry, in 1913 $100 gold bought 5.28 ounces ($18.92/oz), now worth $10,042 (at $1900/oz)
http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/capital21c/xls/RawDataFiles/GoldPrices17922012.pdf
So gold was a good investment, and my guess is that it will be for the next 100 years...tomorrow what will it be worth, well there are short sellers, traders, manipulators (etc,etc),
BUT
not a lot of new tier 1 discoveries and these are where the new gold comes from...the little gouger type discoveries do not move the needle.
But a lot of buying ...
Central banks added 650 tons to their reserves in 2019, the second highest shift in 50 years, after the 656 tons added in 2018. Before the 2007-09 financial crisis, central banks were net sellers of gold worldwide for decades. WORTH NOTING.
PHYSICALLY BACKED GOLD etf'S
https://etfdb.com/themes/physically-backed-gold-etfs/
Good luck to the punters who play the short term volatility markets ...
best
the gnome
With you WhiteNight. Some good news for Oz ...IF Biden makes it to the elections (LOL)
"Biden has big, ambitious plans, he wants to spend $US2 trillion in the green energy space which is good news for a bunch of Australian companies."
I am worried about hanging onto too much money. Money is a transaction convenience, and thats fast becoming a thing of the past. As an "assett" it has devalued every year for decades, one of the most predictable outcomes evry year. Bankable prediction, one of the very few in fact (and you certainly dont want to have too much money int he bank, LOL). If you define an asset as something which holds or inccreases its value or purchasing power, then money is not an asset, its a liability, pure and simple. Good investment sens eif to increase assets and decrease liabilities.
Quick review of the US$. Since early February 2002, the U.S. dollar has depreciated nearly 31 percent on a trade-weighted basis against the currencies of the major industrialized countries and has also depreciated more than 6 percent on a similar basis against the currencies of key developing countries. On a real basis - that is, after controlling for the effects of domestic and foreign inflation - the dollar has depreciated nearly 26 percent against the major industrialized countries' currencies and almost 7 percent against the key developing countries' currencies.
A $100 bill in 1913 would have represented a typical U.S. monthly wage and would have had a spending power equivalence of at least $2,500 in 2017 dollars, and sliding...
Hmmm...transaction convenience (now very dated), and a liability.
Now good old gold ...? Long term? stuffed $100 worth of gold (or 4.84 oz of gold) which would have been worth about $6,000 in 2017 and us$9,200 now. Nice increase in purchasing power.
If we look instead over the 15 years from 2005 to 2020, the price of gold has increased by 330%, roughly the same as the 30 year. Over the same period, the DJIA increased by only 153%
So, over the longer term, stocks seem to outperform gold by about 3-to-1, but over shorter time horizons, gold may win out. Indeed, if we go way back to the 1920s through today, stocks blow gold away.
But going forward on stocks, the big gains are in the tech space, and the p/e's here are sobering to say the least. The moats on these stocks is not that great, and not only is the moat under attack by competition, but also by regulators. The latter I would greatly encourage as they are simply too powerful, and largely play against the benefit of society (at best highly questionable benefits)
https://www.barrons.com/articles/facebook-google-and-apple-face-real-regulatory-risk-from-the-ftc-and-themselves-51581717358
Google has attacked a new Australian law forcing tech giants to pay local news outlets - saying it could threaten search services in the country.In an open letter, the firm warned that its YouTube and Search features could be "dramatically worse" if new
Mr Bond, I don't have "fellow shorters", Strange conception you have. I'm hoping this goes lower so I can top up because I'm in it for the long haul and like the dividend plus thought of 2 quid plus a share in the distant future.
Great post goldgnome.
Uncertain times ahead indeed, the crystal ball is perhaps now our best bet!
ASX being slammed again, down 1.4% in the first 10 minutes of trading (not so good for my AGL shares...).
However, aside from cash of course, gold is surely the safest bet for the coming months, especially CEY who have shed 50% of their value in less than 3 months. I hope I’m not made to eat my own words but I think this stock has been overcooked and will offer decent upside from these levels.
What a day! Benchmark oil to $US38 a barrel handle, gold below $US1900 an ounce. The Aussie shed 1.2 per cent. People waiting more than a month to see a psychologist due to a spike in COVID-related mental health issues that have forced providers to close their books.
Th covid managment flow on is starting to washout onto the balance sheets (only so much you can hide from prying eyes). ANZ (big 4) bank profit down a massive 42%, virus related impairment charges, and no doubt worse will come.
The latest #COVID outbreak means less robust Q4 economic activity--including higher risk of double-dip recessions for several European economies, and why not we having the second wave of the virus?. Big question for #investors for any dip day: strength of the [buy the dip] conditioning
Near-vertical increases in new cases and rising test positivity rates in Western Europe poised to trigger lockdowns in France and Germany. Even going to shut the bars in Germany, so heading for social unrest? France shut its wine bars on Oct 5... The situation is particularly poor in Belgium, Czech Republic.
Cases and positive test rates also are surging in the US, Total Cost of Federal Campaigns Nears $14 Billion, Shattering Records and a lot of concepts of democracy (?!). Biden's pacing himself, and seriously looks like he has not got the energy to perform at th top level. The speculation is rife on what happens if Trump loses "The risk of a seriously disputed election depends in part on the preliminary returns available on election night, as well as the willingness of gerrymandered state legislatures to consider repudiating the popular vote, and the degree to which there develop genuine problems to fight over in court, or the ability to generate perceived problems that would give state legislatures cover for taking matters into their own hands."
https://lawecommons.luc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2719&context=luclj
Uncertainty to the max?
Six of the Dow's 30 components were down at least 4 per cent and Microsoft, even after reporting solid third quarter results the previous day, fell 5.1 per cent !
Predict a share price in the future?
It takes the mind off the guerilla in the room, Deutsche Bank, teetering day to day in the back ground, and not part of polite conversations. It could never happen ...
Like the dip in CEY
best
the Gnome
The market in general is not swayed but your fellow short term traders are, was was clearly seen this month, so it is de-ramping and this last month in a co-ordinated attack ,to panic the sheep.
And it succeeded to an extent.
With the elections , Brexit and Virus increases ,the SP will recover but much more slowly, because of these very uncertain times.
End of discussion for now ,have more important things in my life than pointless chst.
There are a lot of posters on this board in particular that change their view based on what suits them, willing it lower to buy in on the cheap, its one of the worst board I have seen. Hardly anyone offering price targets backs them up with any calculations or rationale.
MrBond, why do people automatically think you're trying to manipulate the stock if they say they think the price will drop lower? It would be a pointless exercise anyway . The market is not swayed by a couple of comments on a message board.
DJ, why would I try to deramp a stock I'm invested in? If you're so certain about this stock you'd be happy if the price dives so that you can buy them at a low price. I was just making a statement that I believe that this will sink further before making a recovery. The last SP was not promising for the near future but if you're willing to hold, which I am, then you'll be quids in. Hoping this drops to 110 . My avg is 133 so I personally would like to avg down to the 115-118 region.
DJRYAN, you are spot on target, different names most of them this week, same mentality as last.
Hoping for a few quid extra each day.
But like you say the large investors steer this share ,this lot, no more than itchy gnats. Trying to feed on whatever they can that is safe.
Management need to give us some good news in December as it's now worth half of what it was 3 months ago
EC
Thx, I have read much about the vaccines and of course, as the article you reference says, we cannot know how effective they are for some time ; protection mb short lived, etc.
But they will be safe. trials will establish that beyond reasonable doubt, or they would not pass approval. These regulators are pretty strict, and whis development and trial tineline have been telescoped, that is not at the expense of safety.
All invilved, drug cos, health authorities, regulators know that passing an unsafe vaccine would completely undermine ublic trust.
Thx fo your good wishes, but I have rad widely (as a layman) and am perfectly happythat any vaccine trial is likely safer than going to the pub atm.
Hey ho, we're going way off topic. Sorry.
Thanks EspecialC. I'm on a pretty low average at 131.6, so I'm not actually down much. I think I'll wait. If there's a bigger decline into the mid 110s then I'd average down. If not and it increases then I'm still happy
Ghengis, here is just one of the many articles that there is uncertainty around the first possible vaccines. https://uk.news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-first-covid-vaccines-likely-023700017.html But we need testing to be carried out on humans that are brave enough to trial it, so good luck. I hope the trial goes the right way for you.
Usually when the markets fall good rises as it is classed as a safe haven,but not this time
Still think the market looking forward for the next year or so dont see much good coming out of the company
I'm with ya Prince. It's difficult to know. If you're willing to hold for 1 year plus, I don't think you'd lose your money. My funds are all locked down between 7 different stocks right now and I'm in the red on ALL of them after the huge drops the last couple of days, but if I had some cash I would put in a limit order for 120 and let it ride for a week or so. I think this will drop to 110 in the next few weeks. Of course that's just speculation.