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In Oz the prediction of Coronavirus deaths by some was very high 4 months ago.
"Australia's Deputy Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly has said the best case scenario in Australia is to expect about 50,000 deaths as a result of coronavirus, with the worst case scenario sitting about 150,000."
So far 110 have died.
It is estimated that there are over 77,000 hospitalisations of pneumonia each year (Poulos et al. 2014; Medianet 2019). There were 4,269 pneumonia deaths in Australia in 2017, making it the 9th leading cause of death that year (ABS 2018; Medianet 2019).
In Australia, influenza on average causes 1,500 to 3,000 deaths, about 18,000 hospitalisations and 300,000 GP consultations each year.
Alcohol causes nearly 6,000 Australian deaths in one year, cancer responsible for one in three. Almost 6,000 Australians died from alcohol-attributable disease in a single year, about one every 90 minutes, according to new research being released today.
Ok so they have censored the second link.
So try .
Second coming of virus to kill 120.000 people in UK.twice as many as current one British Scientists warn.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has revised up the cost of the government’s COVID-19 response by tens of billions and said it expects the UK economy to face its worst downturn in 300 years this year.
The OBR on Tuesday set out three “scenarios” for the path of the UK economy this year as part of its monthly update on the sustainability of UK public finances.
It’s central, or base, case assumes GDP falls by 12.4% this year with “some potential scarring” to the economy — an economic term for permanently lost output caused by firms going bust or people losing work. Unemployment is forecast to peak at 11.9% in the fourth quarter of 2020.
The Brexiteers have made a bad situation (Covid-19) even worse, lets see what Forage, Boris, Gove, Dominique Cummings and all the other Brexiteers have to say when the UK economy goes down the pan!
Thanks Prof for the comments very appreciated-your a true gent.
Yes, have to agree disappointed with the narrowing of the range! and hopefully as you suggested gives CEY the opportunity to outperform.
Other post-Interesting points regards west Africa and End strategy-as suggested look after core asset
thanks to all
The virus matters down south are intriguing, and seem to be lost in a fog of the government and medias (always good money to make in a crisis) own making. Lots of new infections and the latest 3 fatalities?
...the Victorian Department of Health and Human Services has confirmed that two Victorians have died from COVID-19 since yesterday. The man and woman – both aged in their 80s – died in hospital. The other was in his 90's.
It does make one think about the strategy of crippling the country for 20 years in the future.
Sun you ask? We have been immersed in fog for the last 48 hours ... and beyond that and to the south they are still immersed in viruses. I will stay with the fog!
Yellen is v worried about the next wave of fiscal support ... another concern, as the US government’s debt pile grows ever larger.
“I’m very worried about the degree of fiscal support, which we truly need to keep the recovery going. And I don’t know if that’s going to be there.” !??
The US budget deficit widened to a record-high $US864 billion ($1.2 trillion) last month due to the federal government's extraordinary response to the coronavirus pandemic, the Treasury Department said on Monday (Tuesday AEST).America spent about $US2 trillion more than it took in in tax revenue from April to June alone, and we should be reducing tax to stimulate...
Investors are wrong to celebrate the 40 per cent correction in global sharemarkets since March as widespread economic destruction and a "third wave" of infections is still possible, billionaire fund manager and Magellan chairman Hamish Douglass has warned.
Magellan, which manages $97 billion on behalf of retail and institutional investors, has moved to hold about 15 per cent of its portfolio in cash and dumped holdings in high-profile global brands as it reveals its bearish outlook on the global economy's emergence from the coronavirus crisis...and on the back of this bearish sentiment we have a majestic run on Iron Ore and Copper. Something does not add up and I suspect it wont add up much longer...
If Iron Ore stops propping up the moribund Australian Economy, then with Tourism gone, and the Universities teetering on insolvency, we could well end us as a wind swept, barren place at the end of the world!
Perhaps there is more to the fog for 2 days than I think? men
Back to my double malt, yoga and deep meditation
I am with you there.It was the old CEY mantra but then was abandoned for a couple of years at great pain for the share holders.
Any sunburn of late?
I reckon that the new mngt will have learnt from the sins of the past mngt, and will be firmly on the "under-promise, over deliver" mantra
Just my guess though
Thanks for clarifying the question. When I said H1 financials should be stunning I was referring to when they go into more detail on 04 Aug at the interims on the financials for the first half of this year. From today we already have a bit more detail: H1 Production 255k oz, Q2 average price of gold realised $1731, Q2 AISC of $900, (so $831 per oz profit or $415 per oz after profit share), Q2 revenue of $227M (54% up YoY ) and interestingly cash held, as at the end of June of $367M and this after paying out the May dividend. In short I would expect on 04 Aug a reiteration of just how healthy a financial position they are in and a good interim dividend to be announced for Sep. Interestingly a few years back (can't remember if 2016 or 2017) they were holding too much cash so paid out a special dividend which took the total to the year to c15c. I wonder whether we could see this again next month as they will be generating a lot more cash this quarter with POG now above $1800.
With regard to H2 Production well guidance for full year go 510-525k would mean 255-235k oz. Notwithstanding their explanation of delayed maintenance from Q2 to Q3 being behind a massive outperformance in Q2 I can't help but feel management are desperate to keep expectation down so they can excel. I was disappointed to hear 510-540k become 510-525k and still like to think they might well exceed this.
What do you reckon?
You mentioned that H1 interims should be stunning.
I was wondering what forecast you think will be achieved for the next quarter/ounces? I am not sure if this will be covered in the August period. Looks like we are a head on 40/60 split initially covered by cey
Glad to hear you take on it and reassured by how confident you feel.
Let us hope that it is a delayed reaction and we see a good rise over the next few days/ weeks. Provided gold stays good then between that, then the H1 interims then the month or so wait to ex-dividend then we could be in for some good times ahead.
Starting to feel £3 is a real possibility at some point in the next 18months. Then again if gold falls back then £1.50 is also a possible. Got to love CEY.
Prof spent the day travelling so my first opportunity to scan the half year report and to be honest with the so so or as you say mute response to the increase in SP I thought the report must have been somewhat disappointing, however far from it given the rest of the world suffering economically here we read a very good report with above target achievements. So maybe the market needs a bit of time to actually digest what has been reported and disregard the ( brackets) and understand the achievements.
OK the achievements explained as being because of delayed maintenance/service which did make me shudder a little so hope they put this right in 3 rd quarter when production should be helped by increase in underground results.
Money in the bank by the end of Sep then!
Sorry but I don't quite get the question. Can you clarify please?
Hello Professor Great post, mentioning the dividend reminded me of a post I did a couple of weeks ago covering the possible payment and qualifying dates so if you don’t mind I’ll take the opportunity to repost in case anyone’s interested.
Bol ty again for your contribution’s
Onward and upward!
Interim dividend timetable
This was the interim dividend qualifying and payment dates for 2019, I imagine the 2020 dates will be similar.
EX-DIV DATE: 29 August 2019
RECORD DATE: 30 August 2019
LAST DAY FOR CURRENCY ELECTIONS: 6 September 2019
FX RATE DATE: 9 September 2019
PAYMENT DATE: 27 September 2019
H1 what do you think 140/50, 000 ounces?
Well in response to you comment:
'today's response was mute to say the least'
I would say in my best Sir Humphrey voice from 'Yes Prime Minister:
'Yes and no'.
I agree that it would be have been nice to see a stronger rise however we have taken out the 12 month intra-day high having reached 193.05. I think you have to go back to Apr 17 to see higher when it got to 193.8. We have also closed above 190 for the first time also, I think since Apr 17, and taken out that troublesome 188 resistance end of day level.
With gold staying above 1800 we could well see us pushing up towards the 200s this week. H1 interims are on 04 Aug. They should be stunning so if we get a good interim dividend announced we could not just break the 200 but really fly.
Even though the share price could rise continuously in the coming week today’s response was mute to say the least.
Oh well at least it didn’t fall.