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Hi Sotolo
The 3 month time frame will give you a tighter pattern between Centamin and the ETF fund which probably includes Centamin as a percentage of it. Whatever the management achieves, Centamin like most other gold miners is following a seasonal pattern. Physical buying in the jewellery sector has been awful for some weeks. The investment buying has been losing momentum and so the physical buyers will be hoping for a gold price discount. I suspect that discount arrives during November and the retail sector starts to revitalises the gold market. The gold miners therefore have a chance of drifting back down with the price. Whatever price it falls back to is not relevant to most long term holders as both Centamin and the gold price has a seasonal high as we go into January and February 2020. It is relevant to those who like to manage their portfolio by taking profits and buying their stock at a lower price and making more profits on a second dipping rise. Its only the lucky who get the bottom and top exactly right so your guess is as good as any on when to buy and sell. The above is just my opinion but the evidence thus far is showing probabilities that both gold and Centamin are heading lower until someone with big pockets decides they like the prices and piles in. It may be useful to keep an eye on the Friday weekly COTs reports as most of the market was on the bullish side of the boat and the best time to buy is when it is mainly bearish as COTs positional changes trigger the market moves.
Lovely to see you TornadoT. Miners are down about 17% on your chart, while Cey has fallen rather more at 26% I think, because of the lower production. Also it had risen faster, the miners on your chart rose by 40% but CEY by more than double that. So far your chart could maybe just about be a retrenchment of a price that had risen too fast and will go on up again, but if it falls much further it is getting worrying...what do you think TornadoT, you say it is possible for the current downtrend to continue which is certainly true, but do you thinks the odds are greater than even that it will?
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/v/vaneck-vectors-gold-miners-ucits-etf-gbp/share-charts
Centamin is trending with the above. It is possible for the current downtrend to continue.
Tibbs I think you misunderstand me
a. I do not want more shares, I have made very clear I already have a large proportion of my savings in Cey, and I certainly don't want the price to fall, or to buy any more at a lower price, I have no idea where you get that from???
b. I don't think on expected profit so fundamentals the price should be lower. However I don't think my post or others here could possibly affect the price, this is not a tiny aim stock, though if they did my post would push the price upwards.
c. As all I said is that I am encouraged (ie bullish) to see others here saying they have given up and sold as it means fewer sellers are left, so more encouraging for the price.
Sorry if I was ambiguous but hope that is clear and meets your approval, all the best
It is also worth remembering that the share price wasn't far off where it is now before stage 4 was open and when profit share was somewhere in the future!
It is confidence in the capabilities of the management that is needed now
Sotolo ,we certainly don't need any more negativity, confidence in Centamain is about a low as it can get!
I appreciate that you want to pick up shares at a lower price but that also knocks down the price of the those you .already hold.
No disrespect but whatever you or even the rest of us retail investors hold what we buy or sell is of no consequence when compared with the huge amounts traded in CFD positions by the big funds.
There are far too many shares in circulation which devalues the share price and dilutes the dividend!
Phil and Lynne,
Worth remembering that it is not just revenue but three other things, the first you mention is the $200 rise in costs (we are no longer a low cost mine); this equals $200 rise in gold price, so a gold price of $1260 then is $1460 now for the same profit. Then we have profit share which has kicked in, and has since risen 20% from 40% to 50% so that is another $50 taking us to $1510 to be level with back then. Then production is down 15% ,so all in all price seems fair now at. PE of 13, till we see how gold price does, whether production recovers and with it costs fall back a bit again. However I am very encouraged by all the sellers on this board, as on e all the negative Centamin holders have sold we should get motoring when any of the above happen....
Phil and Lynne,
Worth remembering that it is not just revenue but Tyree other things, the first you mention is the $200 rise in costs (we are no longer a low cost mine); this equals $200 rise in gold price, so a gold price of $1260 then is $1460 now for the same profit. Then we have profit share which has kicked in, and has risen 20% from 40% to 50% so That is another $50 taking us to $1510 to be level with then. Then production is down 15% so all in all price seems fair now at. PE of 13, till we see how gold price does, whether production recovers and with it costs fall back a bit again. However I am very encouraged by all the sellers, as if all the negative Centamin has sold we should get motoring.
Had a look at some past prices. Start of this year CEY was £114.75 with a POG of $1284. This rose to 136.2 on a rising POG of $1338. Things collapsed a bit on the poorer than expected forecast for Q1 and Q2, but did seem overdone again. Looking at the revenue for 2018 of $603m we are actually only sitting $152m short of this, at end of Q3 with a current POG average for the year of $1369. This means that if POG holds at about $1500 then 100,000oz for Q4 would match last years revenue. Doesn't seem so bad! 140,000oz at $1500 would add $210m to revenue making $661m, giving a similar figure to 2017, although costs are higher for 2019. 2017 was when CEY reached 190.5 per share. AISC was $744 POG average was $1260 and production was 544,658oz. Please check my figures!!!