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Sotolo, most holders are well aware of your suppositions ,but still hold and buy.
I wonder why?
Thanks Dasut, the ounces don’t bother me they never do, it is the much higher aisc plus around $200 extra capex that will hit profits harder, the metric that matters more and management say will take a couple of years to work itself through. Hopefully this is already in the price so good news on ounces, costs, concessions or W Africa will give us a boost. However if even some here aren’t aware management predicted halved profits this year will the cold truth bother some. I am hopeful mid term, this week I just don’t know but remain hopeful
I put a buy order in today which didn't quite get hit. Only for a smallish amount but I can see gold doing quite well for the next few days/weeks. I can't see much else to buy at the moment - looked into POLY but not sure.
Driving home yesterday, I saw a crash in front of me. Not the usual car crash, though. There was a van on the opposite side of the road which had pulled up. It was transporting three Portaloos and one had fallen off and hit a couple of cars in front of me travelling on my side of the road. The guy in the transporter looked like something from the Beverly Hill Billies.
It didn't look as if much damage had been done, but as I eventually passed them, I gave one of the victims my business card and told him I'd be a witness if required. When I had my bad car crash years ago (2005), a really nice guy from Croydon did exactly same thing for me and he was required as a witness. I vowed to do the same if I ever faced a similar situation. So, I kept my promise. I hope I'm not required though: 'Yes, your Honour, that is quite correct, this gentleman's car was attacked by a loo.'
Isn't life strange?
PS if anyone comes out with 'that's a s@it story', I won't be impressed...lol
I did ask him i think on the Hoc BB his view between hoc and cey. And he was wholly positive more on cey than hoc. And I did appreciate his taking the time to reply. It was posted on this BB as well by Sotolo some weeks back. I think the last sentence was cey looks indeed the better bet.
Sotolo no worries I have three other shares which you also own each time you comment I think oh this will be interesting depressing but interesting.I know the day you are fully enthused I shall be ecstatic. So I look forward to it with much excitement. Take care plus I am waiting for you to tell us you have started you building work. Good luck lynn.
Ooops last para of mine meant to be “ Any positive news on licenses etc will cause a rise, as will any excess on prod numbers”. Meeting prod figures will also be good as shows continuation of meeting numbers since Oct2020 RNSs
Sotolo- of course they will know of the revised figures!
ALL figures are compared to most recent communicated predicted figures.
Any positive news on licenses etc will cause a rise, as will May excess ion on prod numbers
Thank you Dasut,
You know the mining industry and Centamin inside out, your thoughts are greatly appreciated by us all!
I appreciate that you clearly put a very considerable amount of work into your calculation's and possible outcome's, although I'm never quite sure if your contradictory thoughts and conclusions are meant to inspire great hope or suicide amongst share holders?
Your calculations,predictions and conclusions of sort's are based on what has been and not what may be , the latter is yet to revealed and if outstanding disputes are amicably settled to the satisfaction of all parties, the new concession area's are as desired, the existing concessions terms are brought in line the latest and standardised across the Centamin Egyptian operations, the open pit remedial work is progressing to plan and of course promised production is delivered or bettered then you you will have to start your calculations all over again.
Sotolo I will be happy if results are inline with or a little above target but also important is that the west wall has been stabilised and that they will access the higher grade ore as the year progresses.
I am hoping that at long last we will also hear good news relating to the additional concessions and the relationship with Egyptian Government and that the court case is effectively nullified with revised terms of agreement.
Any good news relating to West Africa will be the icing on the cake.
I am not sure I fully understand why anyone will be happy with 450 thousand ounces or why it is not until 2023 to get where they need to be, given the equipment that they now have on site with Capital clearing waste to open up other areas of the mine. So I am expecting to hear something a little more positive and am trying hard to remain positive.
Encouraging to see gold and most commodities holding on a red day for most stocks.
Reminder of GOLD: W- formation is emerging on daily chart T1 1840, T2 1930.
Dasut, you are quite right last year's profits weren't down as they were mostly from before the wall problem, I was talking about this year's which the board have made very clear will be considerably lower. My concern about this week's first quarter figures is that if many larger investors think like some board members here, and haven't fully taken on board the lower production and more important much higher aisc, and even more important extra $200 an ounce remedial Capex, then this quarter's figures, even if a little better than the board predicted, will still be bad - the first full set taking account fo the above - so will you and the market be disappointed by first quarter figures as predicted by the board or even a bit better than expected , or have the big investors taken account of this with the halved share price and will we get a lift? I am not at all sure, I have noticed with Hoc that when badly predicted figures are just as the board said they would be, or a bit better, the shares still take a tumble when they come out. I remain a holder in expectation of our 2023 recovery and a good if much reduced dividend (would only be 3% of our price was still double)
The bottom line was Pardy was below Par. Need to move on, as CEY has.
Martine Horgan has actually done a good job in focussing attention of analysts and media away from ounces to value and profit. The old crew Pardey et al were all ozs.
Gents Hedging is something that Centamin will be very wary of because they have had older members of the gold fraternity advise them on what disasters can occur when hedging at a high future price, believe me I have seen it first hand and discussed the aftermath with the then leading major mining CEO's and CFO's that effectively lost credibility and in some cases their jobs. An absolute no no when you are mining one resource and have no ability to crank up production to meet increased demands at a higher price. If you are contracted to meet future demands and can't supply you may have to go to the market and buy at a higher price than you are getting under the contract.
All looks good on paper but not something I would be advising.
Sotolo ounces down yes but not year end profit as was offset by higher gold price and the ounces are still in the ground not lost so actually have a longer life of mine. By all means provide the news due to legislation that ounces will be reduced as this is part and parcel of the targets projected results BUT at the same time the bottom line won't be reduced against forecast because they are unhedged and they have been able to take advantage of the increased gold price with prudent selling. Tell me if the news had been delivered with good PR skills and not panic do you think we would have seen a 50% drop in SP. In my opinion it would have dropped but by nowhere near the 50% and we would now be far closer to the £2 than we are today. Sorry for the tardy response as I have been otherwise engaged.
I sent Martin an email to ask the question. I've received an out of office reply, he's back Monday - will let you know if there are any replies. I recently had an interesting discussion on this on the Fresnillo board - they've hedged 7% of the annual production using a collar structure though I'm not sure how many calls they sold for each put they purchased.
Not a bad idea.
Your suggestion certainly seems to justify some consideration,
Have you thought about putting it to the CEO on the next conference call Q & A session?
They would have to officially change their no hedging policy, but I reckon given the current disruption to volume production & the high aisc and uncertainty right now why not?
it's justified in my opinion.
I wonder if the board and finance bods at Centamin had considered this option?
To some puts on the forward curve with the rising gold price.
Yes very valid points. I know CEY do not hedge, but given production distribution I would seriously encourage them to buy some puts on the forward curve with the rising gold price.
Analysts are starting to temper their inflation forecasts given slower recovery in the world economy so it very conceivable that should we fail to break through key resistance just above $1800 the traders with short positions won't be stopped out, the gold price is likely to retrace perhaps even to retest $1675. So why not buy a little temporary protection given the variables at play on Egypt for the next year or so?
Very fair comments,
Indeed so many are no longer investors they are day or even hourly traders, (gamblers) as you say they are only interested in trying to make their 10% on the spin of the wheel, or the tipsters favourite, the shame is so many get themselves into desperate situations's with losses mounting in leveraged CFD positions as the minutes tick by due to the encouragement of unscrupulous brokers who are only interested in how much commissions they can make out of a client in a trading period.
It's very apparent on some of the other forum's , or even on here at times when they pop up those that have gotten themselves into a corner, they are usually the type that are single focused, sometime rude and never have time or interest for any discussion or real debate.
I jumped in here at 112p with a view for a long term hold as a great dividend stock.
If that's your goal, then at these prices is a total non brainer.
The problem now is investors want 10% capital profit almost immediately and don't seem interested in dividends.
Forget the noise and wait for the 6% dividend to hit your share dealing account every year is my advice!