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Thank you Mr Gnome, for some great posts and info,as usual!
Very fair and valid Summing up Somnamna!
Been frustrating at times to say the least for us trusting share holders !
Hyperinflation will keep prices down or stagnant for a while
Yep- we will never know before appears, acquisition of cey is a distinct possibility once seen again as a 500k plus miner or on a consistent path to one esp at this price.
I agree, but the answer is not fully developed. If the new mngt can reinstall trust into the investor community, this will be a step up. Previous guys destroyed it, and trust once gone, can be hard to recapture, but this is the journey.
Also very important to watch the exploration expenditures for mine, brown and greenfields. They have invested in this heavily now, and the team to manage this plus the mngt systems looks far more convincing than previously. In fact I do not think they had much of a system in this area at all, just a few shots in the dark and a thumb suck. The presentations have been far more articulate, clearer on process, strong on hurdles and the investors can see and feel the management. This is so far in front of the other mining companies around the world, it is a breath of fresh air.
If from their more measured and managed approach to exploration, they make discoveries in the mine and brownfields, or 2 or 3, this will create some tail winds for the SP/some value add.
I think they have enough in the organic growth pipeline, and the money to follow this that they do not have to jump onto making an acqusition to grow. The reverse maynot be true...they maybe acquired ...
best
the gnome
With the benefit of kind and erudite posts by Rebess, Cowichan, Sotolo and many others too many to mention and of course the guiding hand of Mr Tibbles, my thoughts with regard to CEY SP is it is clearly a function of:
a) gold price
b) production i.e. ounces of gold,
c) total costs (AISC + CAPEX)
It may also carry some benefit of "gold" in the ground.
So unless there is a major movement on a) b) or C) and bar any short term major buys or disposals the SP will languish were it is. We clearly need positive news on any or all to move the SP upwards.
I have followed CEY and been invested, as opposed to traded, for a number of years and seen plenty of ups downs, questionable management performance and skullduggery, so it is refreshing to have Martin Horgan and his team at the wheel but despite excellent work done so far they need to deliver increased production in terms of ounces of gold be it Sukari, Doropo or the new leases. The above to a large extent is stating the obvious it has taken me 10+ years to realize.
Thanks Mr T. I'm hopeful for positive news that will signal and return to being a 500k plus deliverer again- and if this can be projected sooner rather than later, it cements all the good work done by Horgan on his expansion plans and abilities in running the key asset.
Most long term holders will agree that Martin Horgan has achieved great deal in a relatively short time , although admittedly it may not be fast enough for some relatively new holders who prefer to be in and out of stocks more quickly.
Possibly some of the detail Decembers announcement may not please everyone, that is to be expected , although it may exceed expectations, who really knows at this stage , however I remain very optimistic for the future.
https://www.asktraders.com/analysis/centamin-shares-are-falling-despite-q3-results/
The article just repeats what we already know that the POG affects Centamins profits , I am certain that we aware all aware of that by now, so pretty pointless,
How much does the author know about the engineering and geological issues involved in running successful gold mine?
What do they know about doing business in Egypt or the legal system in Eygpt
Have they ever visited Sukari?
What gold mining experience does the author have, most probably very little or none at all , they apply the same analytical methods to pub chain's, super,markers or jelly bean production.
This outfit is just about getting people hooked on trading, even worse it promotes CFD trading on which it is estimated that between 71% - 80% 0f retail investors lose money on.
Centamin/Sukari is where it is simply because appropriate mining methods and practice were abandoned in favour of high grading in order to impress the market with impressive guidance in the short term, Robbing Peter to Pay Paul, although as we are now aware this glossing over was unsustainable and it's now time to "Pay the Ferryman!"
The process which Sukari is going through now is the only waty to access higher grades safely and safeguard future production which may or may not exceed the exaggerated claims of the previous management but the guidance will be more constant and reliable and the AISC should be brought bacjk far more rspectable levels or even to industry syandard lows.
There was nothing wrong with the article. The concern on gold was correct, although I would have said it WAS due to gold price/sentiment on gold price obviously, all other PMs have suffered on this, plus rising costs potential which the POLY CEO openly communicated adding to their lacklustre performance which is now coming back a bit.
Horgan has not said anything concrete on Sukari other than meeting revised forecasts etc which has been positive, most people have listened to every broadcast, and read all the information out there.
If Sukari is not good news on 1st December, it will also throw into question the capability with future projects where so far have been progressing well with lots of detail there.
I maintain what I said yesterday.
"Sukari in oct2020 battered the volume produced - before this it was 510k to 525k per annum then it was reset to 400-430k in oct2020 post this. Good news is slightly ahead of schedule in last RNS staying 415k most likely, so for sure stabilised and no worse since. The reason why I bang on about 1st Dec is this when they will comment on Sukari - will this once again be producing more and increase since Oct2020 projections? Fundamental as we’re still seem as single source and if this is positive along with all the new potentials this year- should be good."
My question for you Mr T, is the big question on expectation of will come out on 1st December:
Is your interpretation of Horgan's verbal comments, written comments that being ahead of schedule that Sukari will remain at current levels of production for many years and how many years with minor improvements and no more issues like Oct2020, or is that Sukari will return to 500k plus, the previous baseline, and what is the timeline for this?
Great post Mrtibbles.
I agree and am grateful to you for the content.
Thank you.
This article is pointless and illustrates the lack of understanding that some journalists have about Sukari and Centamin.
If this journalist had taken the trouble to do some research they would realise the reasons why the share price is where it is at present and that the Sukari operations are performing exactly to Martin Horgan's recovery plan, in fact things are ahead schedule!
I appreciate that some more recent holders are frustrated with lack of upward movement of the share price, but this is to be expected due to the increased AISC whilst the open pit remedial work takes place.
It's quite simple really there is no quick or magical fix to the open pit, the work has to be carried out properly to minimise any risk to the work force and mitigate future production risk, this has been fully explained by Martin Horgan in the two previous presentations and quarterly reports for anyone who has taken the trouble to listen to the presentations or taken the trouble to read the reports
So those hoping for a sudden upsurge in share price certainly before the remedial works are completed are most likely to remain frustrated for a while longer and so may possibly want to consider other alternative investments that may be more suited to their more usual/preferred trading/investment strategy.
Over the past decade have been many traders that have popped in hoping to be able to predict the Centamin share price and make whatever percent by using their usual trading charts and methodology, most have been disappointed/disillusioned and then moved onto other stocks and forums.
As some of our mining professionals have explained over the years mining is notoriously unpredictable and in addition Centamin has always been a contrarian investment in a contrarian country which amplifies the unpredictability!
I remain very optimistic that the next report won't disappoint but confirm that the turnaround is indeed progressing as predicted, possibly even ahead of schedule and there may even be some news on other developments in Eygpt and elsewhere that will reassure share holders and the market.
I don't see any threat to the present dividend policy,quite the contrary.
If Basel 3 was'nt going to have a positive effect on the POG then central banks wouldn't be accumulating so much gold under the radar on the wholesale markets and their trading rooms wouldn't be desperately trying to unwind Comex positions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WSMiH2k8MNc&list=PLE1y8hGSqr8ar1gKUdfqFDK5ygLIlrdmz&index=1
Is the Covid crisis over, no certainly not iin many countries and it's getting worse in the UK where restrictions may have to be reintroduced according to SAGE,
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59011321
Are the UK/USA economies improving, not apparent for or the ordinary people.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58998860
Steve as soon as I mention the sells are always more than the buys the current volume goes the opposite way as if to prove me wrong. Today’s buys are currently at 4.4m with the sells at 1.2m
Some say the volume is not a reliable gauge.
I honestly don’t know.
On the plus side Mark Bankes bought 40k shares a couple of weeks ago so surely if there was anything negative in the upcoming mine report I’d imagine he would be aware.
(MrBond commented the day Bankes purchase RNS was published something about how he could afford to buy a lot more. MrBond if you see this can you please comment.)
The other day the metals were up and I checked five miners and they were all flat.
I’d just like to see a bit more positivity about the share price that’s all.
Thanks Razor- Cowichan or Goldgnome anything to add would be much appreciated
Steve I have no more knowledge on the life of Sukari than I expect you and many others have.
There is a life of mine report scheduled to be published on December 1st.
The stock does seem to be limping price wise, no matter what way the market is trading Cey shares always show a muted response.
Watching the volume after the close every day this last few months has proven that the sells are continuously out performing the buys.
Thanks Razor- what is the position on Sukari now? I'm unclear- will it get back to where is was once clearing done?
This article isn’t particularly interesting but it does raise the irritating question as to why Centamin shares are not £1 plus.
https://www.asktraders.com/analysis/centamin-shares-are-falling-despite-q3-results/