Rolf Gerritsen, CEO at MetalNRG gives an operational update and sees an exciting year ahead. Watch the full video here.
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It seems to me that the profits for Centamin follow the formula of gold price plus or minus management competence , with a helping of luck thrown in . It also seems that the more competent the management team are , the luckier they get. .
On a more serious note and with regard to the Cey share price , I am looking for a noticeable shift in momentum , where the share price rises despite a fall in the price of gold ..of late is has happened on a few occasions but it corrects itself back again within a few days .
The fall in the gold price earlier today by the way , occurred after the markets closed in London .
Well , strange you should say that because I happen to be an amateur weather forecast enthusiast .( I had to give up being an amateur gynaecology enthusiast after some unfortunate lawsuits ).
I am a country specialist though with my focus being Saudi Arabia and the Arctic
My forecast for Saudi tomorrow is that it will be hot dry and sunny , with temperatures averaging around 27 - 30 degrees
My forecast for the Arctic is that it will be cold and icy with temperature around minus 25 degrees.
Forecasting for the UK is simple...it's either going to rain or it has been raining. If it is neither of these then that must mean that it currently is raining...
I could make a living out of this ..
Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said it’s appropriate to consider finishing the US central bank’s tapering of asset purchases a few months earlier than previously PREDICTED, with inflation proving more persistent than PREDICTED.
This and POLY seem to be catching a bid, perhaps some anticipation of a Gold rise
Poly up 3.6%
Quite so Candid a 50% chance of either!
So many traders/investors never seem to consider if the majority of analysts, brokers and other market experts were so good shouldn't they have followed their own advice become very rich and sailed off into the sunset?
Of course the same can be said about so many other professions and walks of life!
What about the climate forcast? Be considered in your answer!?
Yes ,. Lots of forecasts concerning major world events ..completely wrong ! I wouldn't trust the so called experts with the weather forecast
Yes Spoonington...I do like their longer term forecasts for the price of Gold ...let's hope they are wrong to the downside though !
and the new predictions
2020...World Bank forecasts, the global economy will shrink by 5.2% this year.1 That would represent the deepest recession since the Second World War, with the largest fraction of economies experiencing declines in per capita output since 1870, the World Bank says in its June 2020 Global Economic Prospects.
According to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) latest estimates, Italian GDP is expected to top the $2 trillion level,
Estimates from the IMF’s October 2020 World Economic Outlook show that the G7 public debt is projected to increase by around $4 trillion in 2021, which is significantly lower than the $7 trillion increase recorded last year.
PWC. Finally, we expect investor appetite for Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) funds to continue to increase. Specifically, in an optimistic scenario we think that up to 57% of total European mutual fund assets could be held in funds that consider ESG by 2025
The US dollar is expected to weaken in 2021 in a lagged response to the Fed's sharp pivot to monetary accommodation in early 2020, an increase in investor risk tolerance, and a widening trade deficit.
we think that France will follow up its success in the 2018 World Cup to take the Henri Delaunay Trophy home. Allez Les Bleus!
There is so much rivalry for the worst ever prediction
Irving Fisher, one of America’s greatest ever economists, said in October 1929 that he believed equities had reached a ‘permanently high plateau.’ Less than two weeks later, stocks plunged and didn’t reach the highs they fell from for 25 years.
‘Japan As Number One’ was released by Harvard social scientist Ezra Vogel back in 1979. It was not an unpopular view at the time that the United States economy would soon be surpassed by prosperous Japan
In December 2007, Goldman Sachs chief investment strategist Abby Joseph Cohen made a Fisher-like prediction of her own. She suggested the S&P 500 would hit 1,675 by the end of 2008, a climb of 14% — it actually ended below 900
Paul Samuelson, the first American to win the Nobel Prize in economics, said in 1961 that ‘the Soviet economy is proof that, contrary to what many sceptics had earlier believed, a socialist command economy can function and even thrive.'
In 2010, billionaire entrepreneur Richard Branson issued a warning that ‘the next five years will see us face another crunch — the oil crunch,’ predicting a severe supply shortage. Five years later, the price of oil was actually lower than it was then.
Former Fed chair Alan Greenspan warned in his 2007 book ‘The Age of Turbulence’ that the world might need double digit interest rates to control inflation in the near future. Rates have been near zero for the vast majority of the time since.
Joan Robinson, one of the 20th century’s most prominent Keynesian economists, visited the Koreas in 1964 and said ‘as the North continues to develop and the South to degenerate, soon or later the curtain of lies must surely begin to tear.Today, ... North Korea’s economy is an example of repressed backwardness
Joseph Cassano, who ran insurer AIG’s financial products division, had his own financial crisis howler. In August 2007, Cassano said he couldn’t see AIG ‘losing one dollar in any of those (credit derivative) transactions.’ AIG was bailed out in 2008.
Professor Ravi Batra wrote a book called ‘The Great Depression of 1990,’ predicting global turmoil. It was a New York Times number one bestseller in 1987, and Milton Friedman said he wouldn’t ‘touch (the book) with a ten foot pole. 1990 is more generally remembered as one of the beginning years of an extended global boom period
Former National Association of Realtors chief economist David Lereah published a book called ‘Why the Real Estate Boom Will Not Bust — And How You Can Profit from It’ early in 2006. It has not aged well.
Schiff foretold that Quantitative Easing (the unconventional monetary policy undertaken by the Fed between 2008 and 2014) would result in hyperinflation and the eventual destruction of the Dollar. Unfortunately for Schiff, the average inflation rate per year since the onset of QE has been 1.68%, slightly below the 2% target of the Fed. BUt bow he is on the money!?
good for a late night read, why pay
Snake and ladder, snake is our sins and repentance is our ladder, Boris went to mount Sinai to be return as Moses, and Royal Charles went to Egypt to adore a statue/Idol. Ultimate One above heavens is not indifferent whatever we do.
if only there were a reliable way of predicting the future, let alone the prices of anything, including gold, wouldn't we all be rich, never take a wrong foot,etc,etc.
However there is'nt is there, even with the sophisticated market charts and hedge fund algorithmic boxes so much of how things work out is down to chance, fate and to some ,extent the control the corrupt buggers (shadows) have over the levers behind the scenes the world over.
That chart is interesting, though I wouldn't put too much faith in it and my advice to anyone is stay away from CFD trading at all costs irrelevant of what any chart predicts because over time 75% of small traders lose far more than than they ever gain!
Be nice to have had a crystal ball that would have predicted that crack appearing in the open pit wall, but then the independent reports of 2015 & 2018 warned of the glossing over of the the true grade structure of Sukari, yet many of us chose instated to believe the assurances of Andrew Pardey that all was well and 550-600,000 oz year on year were going to be the new norm, because that's what we wanted to believe and in a perfect world that should have been the case!
But in reality the warnings that all was'nt well, that the low grades were being glossed over and even worse as a result the pen pit was'nt being cleared of waste were justified!
Oh is'nt hindsight great thing, or even having a CEO who is truthful!
So it come down to is having the integrity face the facts and to tell the truth, otherwise all the glossy predictions on the future output are meaningless, although even if the truth is told in all good faith and especially in precious metals mining there is always the unpredictable occurrences of fate!
I wouldn't waste too much time and effort trying to predict predict future guidance or place too much faith in the majority of analysts notes, what will be will be, although having a CEO with the professional ability to do what needs to be done and the integrity to face and deal with the facts as they are can only be good for the future prospects of Centamin and its share holders.
If only the the UK electorate had access to that crystal ball I am certain that Brexit wouldn't have happened and certainly Boris wouldn't be prime minister, but unfortunately the masses chose to believe the crock of sh*t they were being told at the time because it suited them!
Go to their forecast chart but then click on the forecasts based on the 5, 10 & 25 year charts.
You will be a lot happier with those predictions :)
I always think Long Term Capital Management was the best at predicting the future.
Their team, which included a couple of Nobel laureates, said that conditions leading to a loss of 20% of their capital were so rare they would only occur once every 10,000 years (I may have got those numbers wrong, it is a long time since I read about them, but it was that level of stupidity).
We all remember what happened to LTCM :)
Thanks Gnome , puts things into perspective .. I like your " weapons of mass destruction " analogy
The history of predicting future prices or events is an interesting area. The success rate is appalling.
J M Keynes 1929 " There will be no serious consequences in London from the Wall Street Slump"
RAND Corp, 1960's "a permanent lunar base will be established long before A.D. 2000.."
USA, 2001, "weapons of mass destruction..."
Paul Ehrlich, 1968, "In the 1970's the world will undergo famines - hundreds of millions of people will starve to death ...."
Then there are the more recent Covid predictions, say no more
You would wonder why people bother to try and make predictions? A: They get paid for it Next question is if the rate of success is so low, why do people pay other people to make predictions? A: Madness/social conditioning
James Glasson, 1999 "Dow 36,000" ...well we are nearly there!...so the argument goes that some of the predictions will be true, if you wait long enough?
When dealing with a market derived price mechanism (lets assume fair, fully informed etc), then the question is supply and demand
Gold supply is limited by diminishing exploration successes (been diminishing for decades and I predict it will get worse), and slow rate of bringing mines into operation..think 15+ years, more ESG, regulations, lacking attractive destination for speculative money (why bother with gold mining, get better returns on "the market")
Gold demand seems to be increasing, from central banks, ETF's
good luck in the future!
I was researching if there was anything on average gold prices for the previous 6 months to get a handle on what the second half revenue is likely to be .
I couldn't find anything , but I discovered this website , which I have posted a link to
I don't know the credibility of the site , but there is a forecast gold price tab which doesn't look too promising .
I don't know how to read and make sense of technical analysis , but I wouldn't have drawn the same trajectory lines into the future that they have .
I am of the general opinion that these kinds of analysis and projections are akin to horoscopes in that you can read into them what you choose to, and that when the situation unfolds into something different to what the charts suggest , they just change the chart !
Mr T, I've still got a stack of Kruggerands my Grandad gave me years ago... for a rainy day :-)
I think it's pretty obvious that mankind's selfishness, greed and exploitation is responsible for most of the environmental damage to our planet.
I fail to see how a massively reduced human population could be anything other than a great help to preserving the planet.
Especially if the virus could wipe out most of the corrupt buggers that control some countries at present!
It's no good trying to control the spread by just inoculating those in the countries that can afford to pay for vaccines , the people in the poorer countries need vaccinating as well, otherwise we shall all be existing in masks and reoccurring lock downs.
No certainly not bearish on gold because according to a wholesale trader I know physical demand is still strong and there is an increasing lead time at refiners.
It seems from the evidence available to wholesalers that the POG is being held back by those who control the levers to allow the unwinding of paper positions prior to next year.
Bought back into my crypto, and some travel stocks (but with stop losses on the travel ones to protect against the virus Omni becoming more deadly) - although this is unlikely from current media.
On gold- so hard to predict- seems like it must stay above 1780 to prevent real damage. Markets bounced back overall, and crypto off the recent low, gold seems to be @@@@ all...
And yet the boom we got from inflation a couple of weeks ago which has gone, but inflation hasn't.
Gold is the hardest I can predict in ages....
It rose so well, but not a lot seems to make it stick, for now....
Wow, some crazy thoughts in this thread. Viruses aren't clever, and usually peter out as the mutations do as much harm to the virus as good. Look at what's happened in Japan recently. Their mutation has rendered the virus fairly innocuous. Please don't scare people if you don't really understand viruses. A massively reduced human population would lead to all sorts of new problems so be careful what you wish for...
@MrTibbles: what's your best guess for when those with the 'big levers' release them?
Are you bearish on gold?
It's interesting to se that Singapore bought so much earlier in the year. I am guessing that their purchase of 26.3MT was the primary reasom for the rise and hence the rise in CEY.
Regardless, the Chinese have admitted they have a viral research facility in Wuhan, so nobody seems to have asked the obvious question , what the hell were they doing researching and experimenting with a virus so deadly ? ( assuming of course that is what they were doing )
Thing is though , I like the Chinese ;. they have a far better menu option that the Indian one across the road..