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Spoon who threw you a banana....you have no idea what I'm doing ...I certainly didn't buy here at 2 quid like some others did.
You clearly have no knowledge of the full history of Centamin and the outstanding accomplishments of the company’s founders and previous management turning a piece of desert into a billion dollar mining operation.
Despite your obvious lack of knowledge you continue to repeat ill-informed and erroneous opinions based on nothing but your own misery and ill will.
Why don’t you examine your own investment principles and practices and work on improving those rather than continuously searching for scapegoats to satiate your seething rage over poor investment decisions - this course of action may well lead you to profitable investments.
Hi Keeplugging
It's understandable on the information and media releases made available by the previous management and indeed the brokers analysis predicting a share price at nearer £3 why people bought in at £2, but unfortunately Andrew Padey, the BOD and indeed members of the EL Raghy family were glossing over how they were achieved by high grading and failing to have in place a fit for purpose methods or any method at all of adequately dealing with waste ore, also the open pit walls angle of inclination were too steep and there was inadequate surface water drainage at the top of the open pit, this all contributed to the inevitable and narrowly avoided near catastrophic pit wall collapse when the crack in the open pit wall became so apparent that it forced the previous management to confess their years of bad mining practice!
You may be aware that in the original Sukari agreement profit share didn't begin until all CAPEX costs in the building of Sukari had been recovered which would have been all well and good if the original open pit and the underground operations had been developed to the correct speciations for long term operations, but this wasn't the case.
So do we now have a situation where the new management through the deception and poor mining practice of their predecessors are having in many respects to redevelop Sukari from scratch which incurs a huge increase in CAPEX , this I suspect is very difficult, if at all possible to recoup from EMRA who were likely of the impression all major CAPEX had been repaid!
In view of this could the management now trying to renegotiate some extension of terms in the LOM plan
(That is he 15 year tax holiday coming to and end in 2025 but it also says that PGM will submit a 15 year extension as well. )
You may recall Hendersom's postings recently warning of some unannounced bur impending bad news, I wonder ?
The Suakari potential problems were exposed in 2015 & 2018, it is now apparent they were justified!
https://rb.gy/5qo6z
For some of us longer term investors, the previous management made Centamin a hugely profitable investment for which we remain immensely grateful.
Don’t want to rub salt into the wound but I will anyway for a giggle 🥳😃
Sorry Mr gnome, I mistakenly referred to you as Mr Bond!
That's excellent Mt Bond who knows if we are lucky our share price may tick up to at least 83p for a couple of days!
I concur, an absolute stinker of an investment and a result of the management never being completely honest with the shareholders or the market!
Hi Sotolo,
I agree with you entirely on this, the "Fishy" smell is increasingly apparent the higher the sterling POG as is my rising suspicion that the management aren't being entirely honest regarding some rumoured changes in the agreement with the Eygptian government which reduced the amount of free cash flow!
More detail this morning from Berenberg on Citywire:
Https://citywire.com/investment-trust-insider/news/expert-view-aviva-moneysupermarket-gb-group-firstgroup-capital-ltd/a2428592?re=114049&refea=218441
"Don’t ignore Capital’s investment portfolio, advises Berenberg
Projects at Capital Ltd (CAPD), previously known as Capital Drilling, are on track but the market is giving no credit to its investment portfolio, says Berenberg.
Analyst Richard Hatch retained his ‘buy’ recommendation and increased the target price from 169p to 173p on the Citywire Elite Companies AA-rated mining services company, which closed unchanged at 77p last week but are down 20% this year.
A third-quarter update showed revenue slightly below Berenberg estimates, but it observed that ‘key mining and drilling projects are on track’ and the group ‘also provided an investment portfolio update, noting an increase in value by $5.7m to $47.8m’.
‘Capital’s holding of Allied Gold, which listed during the third quarter, with a market capitalisation of CAD1.3bn, was worth $10m as of 30 September,’ said Hatch.
‘Overall we view this as a steady update from Capital, but we highlight the positive investment portfolio update which is 25% of its market cap and given no credit in its valuation, in our view.’"
27 Oct 2023
In this week’s episode of Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire is joined by Dave Kranzler, founder of Investment Research Dynamics and Mining Stock Journal writer, to discuss outstanding US Treasury Debt and its impact on precious metals.
The experts debate how the coming banking and financial crises will be far more devastating than 2008 and how this will impact the price of gold and silver before Dave reveals some of the stocks he’s looking at shorting in the near future.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=np1gzQbsqj8
https://investmentresearchdynamics.com/
This has to have been a terrible investment...especially those in at 2 quid......
I suspect that shareholders may not have been made fully aware of some changes which is why I am submodifying the following questions to the Investor Meet preservation for some clarification.
1.Whether he profit share with the Egyptian government been amended or changed at all over the past few years - with dividends being distributed to shareholders yet free cash flow remaining stubbornly low,has this relationship been tested at all?
2. What cash has been paid to Egypt through the profit share and royalty mechanism in the last 2 years and what is it anticipated to be for the current year?
Hi Tornado,
Possibly in some respects the CEO has no control over what the market decides to value stock at, but he has great power to influence the markets decision over the valuation of the company share price .
SteveJones often refers to the main factors that influence the market and the CEO and BOD making some substantial personal share purchases is a fact that legally requiring an RNS in this case a confirmation that the CEO and BOD have great faith in their future strategy of the company which would certainly influence the market valuation of the company ,likely to the better!
Irrelevant on support line Tony.
Facts and events drive indices not charts, charts simply respond to events.
Data yesterday PCE etc was surprised once again on the upside, so the FED bets are poised on hawkish, still, and we all know what this means- potential on rate hike remains on the table.
It's really as simple as this.
Spot on Tony.
If I was the CEO of Centamin I would say we have no control of when the market offers a ridiculous low price as discount on the value of the Centamin stock. Buying low and selling high is a problem for some investors to do, but now is probably a good time to be buying the stock and in fact backing up the truck and buying shed loads. I then hope he can put a buy in afterwards.
Tonight SP500 held the 4116 support line and the next support line now at 4050 is critical. Panic selling happens when it breaks. If it is a stock market crash next week what are the FED going to do when or after it happens as they will have broken the market and the banks are already in a fine mess State side. In the meantime, Centamin will earn loads of money on higher gold prices.
EGYPT: DARK PROSPECTS
10/16/2023
Egypt’s management of external accounts, which consists of buying time thanks to external support between two drastic exchange rate readjustments, is reaching its limits. The persistence of a significant external financing need, notably due to the amortisation of external debt, and international creditors (Gulf States and the IMF) who condition their support on painful and politically costly reforms, have led the Egyptian economy to a dead end. The banks’ net external position is deteriorating at an alarming rate. Restrictions on foreign currency transactions are increasing, with negative consequences on activity in a country highly dependent on imports.
Against this backdrop, the currency shortage is reflected in multiple rationing, the development of a parallel exchange market, a deterioration in the net external position of the banking system and, as a last resort, a sharp depreciation in the exchange rate. The Egyptian pound has depreciated by more than 50% since the beginning of 2022, while the exchange rate on the one-year offshore market has now reached more than EGP 50 for one USD, representing a gap of more than 50% compared to the official exchange rate.
Further deterioration in the external situation of the banking system and a widening of the gap between official and offshore exchange rates can be expected in the coming months. The planning of the presidential elections in December 2023 makes an exchange rate adjustment before the end of 2023 unlikely.
Furthermore, access to private external financing deteriorated, particularly following the downgrading of the sovereign rating by Moody’s, which mechanically led to that of the country’s main commercial banks being downgraded, given the link between the banking sector and the government. Public banks hold approximately half of the total banking assets, and government debt accounts for approximately 50% of the total assets of all public and private commercial banks. Government access to the international capital market has been closed for several months given the level of risk premiums (greater than 1,500 basis points)
https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Egypt-Dark-prospects-10/18/2023,48999
More than that Mr T today gold made another all time high in sterling, which matters to our sterling gold price ……which languishes around a decisore 80p due to management incompetence.
Last week, Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly held a press conference to unveil an ambitious plan aimed at combating the country’s surging inflation and the relentless rise in food commodity prices.
During the conference, Madbouly announced that the Egyptian government has agreed with producers and retailers to cut prices of several food commodities by 15% to 25% for six months starting Saturday, October 14.
These commodities include beans, dairy products, white cheese, mixed cooking oil, pasta, sugar, lentils, poultry products, eggs, and rice.
Madbouly pointed out that the government will exempt manufacturers and retailers from customs duties imposed on these commodities as well as speed up customs clearance procedures at ports for the next six months.
https://www.millingmea.com/egypt-boosts-strategic-reserves-with-250000-tons-of-rice-to-tame-the-ongoing-shortage-crisis/
------------------------------>>>>
Any semblance of free market activity is quickly fading. Farmers cannot just absorb the high cost of inflation while at the same time sell their products for less. Same with importers & shopkeepers. If general investors don't yet understand the threat to their holdings in Egypt based companies - they soon will.
Thaer Mansour
Egypt - Cairo
26 October, 2023
One US dollar is officially equal to about 30.90* Egyptian Pounds (EGP), whereas its value against the local currency black market ranges from 45 – 47 EGP at the time of publication, leading the prices of basic commodities, mostly imported, to rise tremendously.
"Israel-Gaza war is one of the factors taking a heavy toll on the Egyptian pound, bringing it down to a record low. But this is not the sole reason behind the declining value of the local currency," economic researcher Ahmed Abdel-Thaher told The New Arab.
"Perhaps Egypt is on top of the countries in the region influenced by the ongoing fighting between the Palestinian Hamas faction ruling the Gaza Strip -Hamas as the war has increased the geopolitical risk for the country," he explained.
https://www.newarab.com/news/us-dollar-value-egypts-black-market-rises-amid-gaza-war
------------------------------->>>>
Centamin receives the official rate* in local currency as per its monthly gold sales 'agreement' with Egypt's Central Bank - thus, Centamin is being shortchanged as Egypt's currency isn't as valuable as the Central Bank pegs it
The essentially forced sale of gold to Egypt's Central Bank warrants a rethink , it represents a threat to Centamin's balance sheet, on several levels besides the pegged rate
Yes Steve I realise that, next week will be interesting, as the Middle East is in the cross hairs.
Some great questions Mr T...especially number 3...the reason cannot be that the Directors are short of a few bob
best
the gnome
Hard to see a sustainable end to the daily insanity. An expansion seems more likely
US and coalition troops have been attacked at least 19 times in Iraq and in Syria by Iran-backed forces in the past week. Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Lebanon’s Hezbollah are all backed by Tehran.
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said at the United Nations on Thursday that if Israel’s offensive against Hamas did not stop, the United States would “not be spared from this fire”
Who pays for the insanity? Gold looks good ...
The Gnome
1.With the POG @ over $2000 this Friday evening the Centamin share price is languishing @ 80.5p , now why is this?
2.Why then if the CEY and the BOD have such confidence in their present company strategy are they not willing to demonstrate it to the market and shareholders by putting some of their own "Skin in the game" that being by making some meaningful personal share purchases?
3.If the CEO and BOD aren't willing to invest their own money into the company they run and was described not so long ago by Martin Horgan CEO as "Cheap @ 80p!" then why should anyone else?
I shall be submitting these questions for inclusion in the Investor Meet Presentation
It already has :-)