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Within the limitations of my understanding of W Africa RNS, on the face of it, it doesn't warrant a SP collapse. - If anything, I would have thought an enhancement to the SP. - We now have an assigned value which we've never had previously. - However, I'm prepared to accept the limi tations of my understanding of what has been announced.
Iglu
worth a look
https://liberum.com/people/
look nice in suits, any people with mine operational experience? exploration experience? engineering, geoscience degrees, experience, SUCCESSFUL EXPERIENCE...any people who enjoy a well earned GandT at the tavern on a Friday lunchtime? and lunchtime? Must dash to the local myself! been a hard day
best
the gnome
2m sold
3m bought
Just some minor detail..
THE NATURE OF THE RELEASE CONFIRMS MY SUSPICIONS THAT MARTIN IS AN UNDERSTATER/OVER DELIVERE...CONSERVATIVE GUY!
NOTES FROM DOWNUNDER
1. Consensus gold price (I BELIEVE IN GOLD SO IF THE OTHER PRICE IS A REALITY I AM PROBABLY EXITING SIDE LEFT)
Source: BMO Capital Markets. Five-year consensus gold price of US$1,829/oz, as at 31 March 2021.
2. DOROPO
· US$487 million NPV5% with a 33% IRR at consensus gold price per ounce of US$1,829/oz ("consensus")
· Total development capital expenditure ("CAPEX") of US$275 million, including a 15% contingency
3. ABC
· US$282 million NPV5% and a 26% IRR at consensus gold price
· Total development CAPEX of US$265 million, including a 15% contingency
4. BATIE
· The open pit Mineral Resources are estimates of recoverable tonnes and grade using Multiple Indicator Kriging with block support correction produced using GS3 software
· Indicated resources occur in areas drilled at approximately 25 x 50 metre spacing and Inferred resources exist in areas of broader spaced drilling
SO IF YOU SEE THE GOLD PRICE AS BEING AT US$1800 OR BETTER, THEN THERE ARE 2 PROJECTS THAT ARE WORTH MONEY.
THE FACT THAT MARTIN IS INVESITNG MORE MONEY TO PROGRESS THESE IN A MEASURED FASHION IS ENCOURAGING. THE OPTION REMAINS TO DIVEST INTO A NEW LISTED COMPANY...OR MINE...GOOD PLACE TO BE IN THIS CLIMATE.
BATIE IS SOMETHING THEY WILL HAVE OT MAKE A TOUGH CALL ON, NO RESOURCE UPGRADE SUGGESTS TO ME THEY ARE WANTING TO RESERVE SOME OPTIONALITY FOR ANY IN COMING PARTY? BUT THIS IS A DIVESTMENT.
THE GNOME
Blue finish!!
In the RNS Martin Hogan appeared to write down the choice of B/F.
Life of mine relatively short ,for now and problematic geology, IMO.
Cote de Ivory ,not so much cash tipped into holes ! Yet.
There needs hard decisions to be made.
The large Institutional .will be sure to voice their opinions to the BOD ,and will be heard.
Overall we need news of the Egypt concessions to clear the air of the smoke.
The way to look at analysts is like this...
If they want to buy, they will tell you to sell so they can pick up a better price.
If they want to sell, they will tell you to go overweight so they can get out higher.
Analysts are only useful to get a range guidance, as they at least have to make the stuff sound credible, so some actual math occasionally goes in.
About a year ago most royal mail analysts were reiterating sell with a price target of £.1.20...There about £6 now. Must be a miracle???
Tiger, I read $275 capex +15% contingency and then $265 +15% and thought as different figures for the two mines. It would be great to get rid of Battie even better imho both to someone already mining there
*Prompted
it’s rising back up now the manipulators got in at the sp they wanted...what a scam
In light of the RNS it wouldn’t be unusual for brokers to comment, it’ll be interesting to see if any are promoted throughout the day.
Martin is just doing what he has been hired to do, and is delivering on, Cleaning out the cupboard, focusing the company's capex, and re-optimising a development pipeline that is real and delivers in our lifetime, rather than idealized by people who understand inheritance and not hard smart work.
Good luck Martin, bring it on!
Personally I did not think there was any market value ascribed to West Africa.
best
the gnome
That link takes me to a page that says RBC raises Centamin to target 140! I'm sitting tight, even considering topping up. Games being played.
130 by next week for sure!!
Perhaps they are the people who shorted Lloyds for a 100 million at 20 pence lost someone’s money at that one.Experts now we have this unfounded spout .l have not read there article but if it’s found to have no true facts maybe the. Company can undertake a libel action with the no win no fee litigation.Had difficulty topping up this morning so l suppose they have there reasons.
Given one of the largest influencers ( Libernum is of course not one, at least not to me)on the planet is the Fed, and the Chairman reigns supreme, It is interesting to look at the history of advice and actions.
The Fed’s legendary chairman (there have been a few LOL), Arthur Burns, brought a unique perspective to the US central bank as an “expert on the business cycle” (OK yes, he was an economist! Who I think have done more damage than the communists but that’s another story, wink wink, nudge, nudge). Burns argued that central bankers had the tools to curb inflation in the 1960s and 1970s but ignored them after the Fed found itself "caught up in the philosophic and political currents that were transforming American life and culture”.
Burns was prone to segment the problems he faced as a policymaker, especially the emergence of what would soon become the “Great Inflation”. Like business cycles, he believed price trends were heavily influenced by exogenous, factors – “noise” that had nothing to do with monetary policy (Blame everyone else virus).
When US oil prices quadrupled following the OPEC oil embargo in the aftermath of the 1973 Yom Kippur War, Burns argued that, since this had nothing to do with monetary policy, the Fed should exclude oil and energy-related products (such as home heating oil and electricity) from the CPI… it only had a weight of more than 11 per cent in the CPI ?
In 1973 Burns proclaimed surging food prices were traceable to unusual weather (El Niño) events that had decimated Peruvian anchovies in 1972… further he insisted that this was the source of rising fertiliser and feedstock prices, in turn driving up beef, poultry and pork prices..so his order was to take food ( a weight of 25 per cent!?!) out of the CPI…and away we go …
This led to the preferred metric of the core inflation rate – that “purified” portion of the CPI that purportedly is free of the volatile “special factors” of food, climate change (wasn’t spoken about then much) and energy, where gyrations were traceable to distant wars and weather…and the odd stray pandemic?
Well if you believe everything you read from the politicians and the government about inflation, and even better core inflation, good luck and good night.
Advice (for free, no agenda's or commissions) Set up your own CPI, lets call it i-CPI, and watch this with great interest.
Now inflation aside, in Australia it is very clear there has been wage stagnation for several years. Further, with everyone turned onto social media, jobseekers, government handouts of various flavors, covid tests, security tests etc ad nauseum, that productivity has dived? Lets not debate what is being produced for whom and why? Society benefit, well that’s off the agenda?!
My bet is the music will stop, people will turn off, and wake up and gold will ignite as being far more dependable and valuable than snake oil, political ideologies, cpi analysis etc.
Go gold, and CEY
Good luck to us
there seems concern of an Egyptian Govt announcement re changes to the govt payments.
Hi Sotolo!
The capex for Doropo would be "only" $275m - not $550m. It's a long road, but that could turn out to be a decent-ish mine, though the economics aren't all that compelling.
Batie West has been rejected by Centamin. It's up for sale, but I doubt it will ever find a buyer, given the problems of operating in Burkina Faso. The money invested in it (both in buying Ampella and in all the drilling) is likely a dead loss.
Honestly, all members of Centamin's board who have been there for more than a couple of years should resign. Put West Africa together with the high-grading of Sukhari, and the subsequent production problems there, and all you can say is that those directors have either been negligent, incompetent, or worse.
Let's hope Martin Horgan can make a fresh start with Centamin and change the company for the better. The geological endowment of Sukhari is still one of the best in the world.
Oh no, it must be take your kid to work day at Laberum and they've let him have a go.
What a set of Muppets!!!!
Passing thoughts from a card carrying member of the Skeptics and Cynics Royal Society.
Has Libernum got any credibility in the prediction game? There are other games such personages and Insto's play, as we know. The age old question - who benefits from their advice?
Have they got any argument/data/well founded logic to support their prediction? If you do want some better entertainment onto the prediction stakes I suggest you turn into the crypto space.
best
the gnome
The company has been attacked by fake news....only broker upgrades are evident. What a shower of ****e some people are
Its a buying oppourtunity, I didn't think the market was giving us any value for West Africa, the 5% drop is just punishment. I should have paid more attention to the 2 or 3 large sells over last couple of days, leaky ship.
Does third party options mean a Joint Venture or sale ?
Sotolo,
Your thinking echoes mine that the fall is likely to be people not liking the trade off of a certain pound in the pocket now being spent to generate a speculative higher return. Mining's track record is certainly not the best in this regards.
Best wishes,
Prof
RNS very positive, SP down purely on Liberum forecast, which is a nonsense.
RBC upgraded earlier this month to BUY with target 140p and others in region of 120-140p.
Liberum forecast possibly erroneous, but smacks of manipulation. Gold prices strong and rising, strong recent trading updates, great RNS today and good long-term case to be invested in CEY. Somebody will get a good entry today, courtesy of Liberum.
Liberum will be required to provide answers.
I think it is a bit unfair as most of us haven’t counted in W Africa when doing the sums, and the sums in Egypt look good from 2023
However maybe it is worrying if the company want to put our profits into holes in the ground rather than our pockets with huge dividends, and my worry about this W Africa news is not that it is weak but capex is $550m plus 15% contingency which probably means nearer a billion. Then it will be worse if we get more Egyptian concessions as more capex. What has been so good and kept the price up is the massive dividend, but now we may be paying out on other schemes for years till we get money back. Hopefully at least some of the exploration in Egypt will be adjacent to Sukari, but all drilling is prospective. Could help explain the fall? Just bravely bought some back but I am forever catching falling knives
And Mr Tibbs I meant to reply to you yesterday that you want to worry if I am optimistic. All best to all