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I would love to buy Centamin shares at the price forecast by the idiot from Liberium - I will happily pay you 90p per share - a few pennies above your price forecast - put your money where your mouth is.
I wonder if the nice photos of the team on the Liberum website have been photo shopped and they are really chimpanzees.
It's a joke, like the price target they pulled out of a Christmas cracker!
Hi Marmot,
Thank you for reminding everyone just how ridiculous is the Liberum valuation, is this bloke really an analyst or an out of work comedian from the Edinburgh festival, gaps or no gaps (and why these should be filled anyway to conform to some stupid MM jiggery pokery is beyond me, the price is the price ,if you want the share pay it!) as you rightly point out Cey was valued at this before it was even producing anything, let alone gold!
If ever there was an example of just how manipulated and crooked ,not to mention devoid of common sense the markets are then this rating is it!
I did mention a while back that iI had heard that Martin Horgan intended to review the West African assets and then decide which were worth keeping and which to offload, but that never ending drilling for no return or sitting on unexploited assets was no longer an option as he would rather invest the funds in other projects in operationally known and more stable jurisdictions, he seems to be doing just that.
Hopefully when the statement is issued on the Egyptian concessions then things will be clearer and an 82p rating will be confirmed as a complete joke!
As already mentioned Basel 3 next month, Liberum seem to be oblivious to the way that will affect future bullion prices!
Rebess, Liberum and what they know about anything I know not as what a load of old rubbish must have had a bad dream and woke up in a bad mood because doesn't make any sense whatsoever.
I don't take any notice from the likes of such so called analysts because unless they have first hand experience it is only conjecture.
Rebess , whether there was a plot and collusion ,as inferred. It makes little difference, any hostile takeover will be once again reviewed by not only the BOD but the Institutional investors.
They are here because of the way Centamin expand without cutting the divided or borrowing.
Giving good shareholder returns ,along with self financing gradual growth.
B/F was a lemon, I always thought that ,today confirmed that.
If you have different thoughts and suspicions question CEY direct.
Keep well.
I’m not day trading this share, or leveraged, so today’s retracement in recent progress is not really material to me. It’ll creep back up again I expect, as I don’t think many will agree with that 82 pence analysis. IMHO before it got to those levels, it’d be vulnerable to a take over, which I expect would send the SP up substantially. It’s a hold and be patient for me.
I wouldn’t make investments decisions on the basis of recommendations from analysts from Liberian - these individuals are not fit to tip dustbins - look at their past record and decide for yourself. Given the amount of money printing by the US / EU / Japan....... the price of gold will increase sooner or a little bit later as a hedge against inflation and giving private investors an option as a store of value. Given Centamin’s balance sheet the net worth of the company will rise in line with the price of gold - I will top up tomorrow at this price for sure and more if the price goes lower - the current economic context - the implications of Basel III are missing from the Liberian forecast for Centamin - otherwise what we have is a naive forecast. Do your own research when making investment decisions
Hi Dasut
Let's see what the coming days will bring. - One point that Cowichan raised which struck a chord with me was the Liberum 82p release occurring at the same time as Centamin RNS release. - I believe they even beat Peel, the Centamin Nomad, to the draw. A release that played no small-part in the collapse of the SP. - Coincidence or what? - A person could be forgiven for thinking this was a contrived/collusive event. After the shenanigans of recent history, it would not be an unnatural thought. IMO
Rebess as I say I really don't get it we get good news and a kick in the teeth at the same time. Sell of Batie/Konkera to one of the big boys (or maybe Horgan can sort out something with Resolute who are not necessarily one of the big boys but they have some great guys working for them and like a challenge), to finance Doropo and ABC, an additional mine or two no longer a single resource, not hampered by the Burkina risk, Cote D'Ivoire less risky and NOT land locked so easier logistics, experienced contractors, including Lyco working in West Africa for many years also well known to Horgan and his team. What's not to like?
So let's give Horgan some credit Batie was always somewhat complicated and risky and could have proved expensive in the long run and if maybe Lyco struggled with the process then best cut your losses.
Liberum initiates at sell with a target price of 82p, seems a bit harsh, why so low ?
Hi Dasut
I think the collapse in the s.p. after such good news had something to do with the doom and gloom. - A repeat of the short-ladder long-snake syndrome that has plagued Centamin for so many years now. - It's before us and behind us and we cannot shake it off. - Or so it seems.
I really don't get it I am out in the garden labouring for the wife from early on this morning. I switch on my emails at 5pm and see the West African announcement and pretty much everything I read came as no surprise whatsoever. Batie West/Konkera has been pretty much mothballed since 2014 and OK yes they have tried to make it viable by drilling over the large expanse but as expected has been placed in the "Too Difficult basket".
OK yes frustrated that we aren't digging for gold in the next months at Doropo BUT it does point in the right direction "they have something worth going for" and again this wasn't a surprise as this resource came on board later and the good news is they are now going for a pre feasibility study so we are on the home stretch of putting a shovel in the ground at long last "a plan"!
So then I logged on here expecting to see a healthy rise in our SP as I say I don't get it. Conspiracy theories wasted funds on drilling confirmation that Burkina doesn't cut the mustard ???
OK yes frustrating but to be expected and to be very honest surprised that Burkina decision wasn't announced earlier guess they wanted to combine the announcement with the good news at Doropo and ABC, to actually reduce the impact.
Also as expected contract mining and also great news that Lycopodium part of their advisory team so process pretty much sorted and sounds simple operation.
Not enough proven to go for broke so still needs the due diligence to satisfy the money men but as I say at long last a plan is out there for a way forward and another 200 thousand ounces per annum on the horizon. So why all the doom and gloom?
Razor I think that was a very mild statement about being disappointed today, also thought we were going in the right direction, it seems that the rug is always pulled from underneath us when we get settled, unfortunately it does seem Centamins way to have its shareholders going through turmoil . I really hope we will recover soon. All the best to all.
I wholly agree Razors.
It will recover soon.
The rumours and speculation are to me unfair.
The sheep panic without that. It has shaken many Traders out, but nothing is sure fire in these times. Times have changed , if people gamble they can expect losses. On top of that MMs and Anylists love days like this, quick commissions.
I’m disappointed with the last 8 hours.
What I was feeling was that patients and steady as she goes will rule the day.
The reason for my post is there points being pondered with no real evidence to back.
My attitude is the pps dropped circa 5%, with a couple of positive days with gold rising today’s loss will soon be recovered.
So I’m ready and willing to wait for the progress to resume.
Onward and upward... keeping a close eye for the near future.
Pretty sure we have not yet seen and end to the rise for precious metals. They is no way that interest rates will start rising as quick as the banks would like. In fact they are being crucified at the moment by the US Authorities for feeding off other people misfortunes! Fed wants to let inflation run for a while too with no sign of raising for a while yet. Dollar falling will help too.
I forgot we were open for business tomorrow before the bank holiday. I suppose with all the April weather we have been having in May I have become quite confused.
Glad the squeeze is on the shorters already as immediately we will see gains -although no shorts over .5% on short tracker were listed for CEY when I last looked.
If there is the even the remotest possibility that today's announcement is somehow a part of something devious, then it must rank alongside Pardey's previous attempts at sabotage. - Strange how Centamin's official tweet withdrawn. -
I think so Rebess. And here I thought things had changed. Along with the inability for a true resource around Konkera/Batie West to be shared publicly all we've really seen was the decision to develop Doropo kicked down the road another whole year! That's insane. A total betrayal of any goodwill shareholders might have been holding out for the new CEO.
We all need to ask ourselves - what was the point of waiting a year (Mid 2020 to mid 2021) if all we are told now is it will be another year before we make a decision? A stall tactic when we should be moving forward. Personally, I think it is some part of the old guard - a board member or two that's holding out for other purposes than what's in th best interest of Centamin shareholders. And if that's the case I don't know what our new CEO can really do.
There is a big short squeeze on at FRES right now.
It could get quite interesting over there in the next few days.
Hi Cowichan
Just read your post. - Amazing stuff. - They say a Leopard never changes it's spots. - Is the mystery/intrigue surrounding this company as strong and prevalent as it's ever been?
i.e. HARGREAVES LANDSDOWN quote Centamin as one of their largest sticks traded today where 67% of all trades were in fact buys? Perhaps after a weekend of contemplation we will see a bounce back Tuesday (after the long w/end). Hope so anyway.
At least my Fresnillo and Hochschild have come back quite well today instead.
Today's fall has wiped-out the value of the upcoming dividend payment and some. - It's a very difficult share in which to sustain meaningful progress. - You really need a crystal-ball and nimble-feet. - It's going to require a leap of faith to stay with this. - IMO
.@CentaminPlc must disclose the true resource in Burkina Faso including 600k meters drilling in Napelapera & Wadaradoo — shareholders have rights
Withholding information artificially lowers asset value allowing 4 an unjust takeover
@TheFCA
@OSC_News
@IIROCinfo
@EndeavourMining
------------------------------------>>>
My Thoughts: What the hell is happening? How does management 'manage' to collapse the share price with an update on West Africa? How does a sell rating with a ridiculously low valuation magically appear simultaneously?
I hope some of the LTH's will join me and contact IR with the very question I have tweeted above
Signaling to the market one's willingness to dump the Burkina Faso assets as they are not good enough is a hellofa way to extract the maximum value for shareholders...
Somewhere in his evil lair Mr de Montessus is laughing a wicked laugh
https://twitter.com/DonLawson_/status/1397933849267507200
Also note --> just five minutes after I posted this reply Centamin has removed their tweet - looks like they don't want the regulators sniffing around!!
Upcoming Catalysts. 2Q21 Production Results (22 July), 1H21 Results (5 August), Exploration Roundtable (3Q21).
Valuation. CEY trades at 3.5x 2021 EV/EBITDA or 0.7x P/ NPV. We reiterate our Buy recommendation with a PT of 175p, derived via a 50/50 weighting to P/NPV (1.25x) and 2021 EV/EBITDA (4.0x).
The Long View
| Scenarios
Base Case
- LT gold and silver prices of $1,500/oz and $20.00/oz - Improvement in UG and OP grades drive higher production in 2021/2022 - PT Derivation: 50/50 weighting between P/NPV (1.25x) and EV/EBITDA multiples (4.0x) - Price Target: 175p
Upside Scenario
- Stronger gold/silver prices; peaking at $2,500/oz & $35/oz, long-term $2,000/oz and $30/oz
- Optimisation drives cash costs lower
- Valuation discount vs peers is not fully erased until second producing mine or geography
- PT Derivation: 50/50 weighting between P/NPV (1.25x) and EV/EBITDA multiples (4.0x), same as base case - Price Target: 300p
Downside Scenario- Gold and silver prices decline to $1,250/oz and $15.00/ oz with no improvement thereafter - Increased political concerns over Egypt lower multiples investors are willing to pay - Operational disruptions push cash costs higher - PT Derivation: 50/50 weighting between P/NPV (1.0x) and EV/EBITDA multiples (3.5x), discounts to base case - Price Target: 60p
| Investment Thesis / Where We Differ
- Sukari is a world-class gold asset, though recent difficult operating periods have clouded its underlying valuation - Clean balance sheet with no debt and cash & liquid assets of $331m as of 1Q21
| Catalysts Higher metal prices- Brownfield exploration success at Sukari further increases reserves and resources - High-grade discoveries through ongoing exploration in
West Africa- Increasing shareholder returns
- Value accretive M&A
Centamin
Pushing Ahead with Doropo
27 May 2021 Key Takeaway
This morning's update around its West African exploration portfolio clearly places priority around the Doropo project with a good chance to become the company's second producing asset by middle of the decade. Successful delivery of a pre feasibility and subsequent bankable feasibility study has the potential to deliver real value to shares where we feel the market currently ascribes little value to.
Reiterate Buy with 175p PT.
Asset Overview. The Doropo project hosts 5Moz of contained gold (primarily inferred
resource) and is located in northeast Côte d'Ivoire. The PEA envisages a 13-year mine life with life of mine (LoM) production averaging 151koz per annum and 208koz per annum in the first five years. The conceptual multi open pit operation assumes a processing rate of 4.9Mtpa and overall recoveries c90%. Initial capex of $275m includes a 15% contingency and sustaining capex of $90m includes a closure provision of $18m. Based on $1,450/oz gold and an 8% discount rate, the NPV is $234m or a 21% IRR. Consensus gold prices of $1,829/oz (vs spot $1,897/oz) improves the economics to $487m NPV and 33% IRR.
Exhibit 1 - Doropo PEA Summary
.
PEA Summary First Gold Prod (koz) TCC ($/oz) AISC ($/oz) NPV5% IRR Gold Price
Doropo 2025 151 790 904 $234m 21% $1450/oz
LoM Average
Source: Company Data, Jefferies
Next Steps. Positive PEA results improve the potential for Doropo to become CEY's
second operating asset. A $14m spend over the next twelve months will progress
a prefeasibility study (PFS). Among other items, the PFS work program will include
70,000m of drilling, aiming to bring a large amount of the inferred resources into measured & indicated. Following completion of the PFS (mid-2022), CEY will advanc the bankable feasibility study (BFS) and an 18-24 month construction period pegs conceptual first gold production by end of 2024 or early 2025.
Group Level Implications. Exhibits 2-4 show conceptual group level metrics. By 2026 (second year of production), we estimate group level gold production of c700koz, EBITDA of c$560m and FCF of c$260m (15% yield vs current share price) based on a $1,650/oz gold price assumption. Spot gold ($1,897/oz) would improve financial metrics to c$720m EBITDA and $350m FCF (21% yield).
Shareholder Return Story Undisturbed. With $331m in cash and liquid assets (no debt), and the ability to fund development of Doropo out of current cash on hand and future cash flow (JefE 2021-2025 FCF of $740m), we don't see CEY's ability to remain a leading divi payer in the gold sector in jeopardy.
Further, the capex cycle related to Sukari waste stripping will have peak ed two years prior to the assumed bulk of Doropo development capex in 2023 and 2024.
Upcoming Catalysts. 2Q21 Production Results (22 July), 1H21 Results (5 August),
Exploration Roundtable (3Q21).
Valuation. CEY trades at 3.5x 2021 EV/EBITDA or 0.7x P/ NPV. We reiterate our Buy
recommendati