Centamin PLC Share Chat (CEY)

Thanks Picket

Cowichan 126,000
Sparkle_and_Fizz 120,000
Mizolgit 117,500
Picket 117,000

Thanks Miz (and good prompt it is in Troz)

Cowichan 126,000
Sparkle_and_Fizz 120,000
Mizolgit 117,500

I'll go for 117,000 ounces whilst hoping I'm wrong & it's much higher , ATB

I of cause hope for more but suspect 117500 troy ozs.

I gone back over 6 pages of posts so apologies if I have forgotten anyone. Please shout!!

Thanks Cowichan

Cowichan 126,000
Sparkle_and_Fizz 120,000

Come on Tibbs, Rebess, Dansul, Marmot, Picket,downhil,ton-fra-cen,scuby-do,Pushmepullyou ,hedgehogg,mizolgit , Wally46, MrBond46,notsosmartmart,Gino73,TigerByTheTail,ChasPB,zambianminer,Cooperman21,uncertain,Paul-280i,Somnamna

Siko if you are out there grab the prize!!

Okay - I'll give it a go... I can't recall the last time we got a surprise to the upside so I'm going to say 126,000 ounces

Dansul
1- they have a complete analysis of what grade they have...
2- when they mine the tonnage they know in advance how much gold by grams. (I did watch a video that explained how they control the output with exact by Grams) to avoid any playing around.
Agree with both of the above, even Kess Decker would have e known the grades in 2015

They know what they have and what equipment they are using and for how long can it be used and they are very conservative about their operation and they never exaggerate in their PR(s) concerning the production.

They may know what the operational time/maintenance limits are, but they have admitted running plant a over capacity in the past and as any engineer will confirm you can only abuse working limits for so long and then the piece of kit will fail.
Also not having any back up for an essential single LHDR does not exhibit prudent or professional production management

The politics theory I don't buy that for the following-

I really don't think that the Centamin management would pull a move like this, it would be absolutely stupid and they would certainly lose the concession when it became public knowledge, which it would in Egypt!

EMRA have representatives on site they would find out if anything underhand was going on

Centamin plc is an independent company
http://www.ide.go.jp/English/Data/Africa_file/Company/egypt05.html#anchor9
Pharaoh Gold Mines NL, Centamin's wholly-owned subsidiary, and the Egyptian Minerals and Resource Authority established an operating company, Sukari Gold Mining Company, 50% owned by each party.
The consolidated entity has material interests in the following incorporated ventures:-

I thought for a bit of fun we could post our views/ guesses on the production. I am probably the highest with 120k. The are no cash alternatives just the world cup winner of cey production figures.

U.S. employers likely maintained a rapid pace of hiring in June, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 200,000, reinforcing expectations of strong economic growth in Q2 and allowing the Fed to continue hiking interest rates. Data from the Labor Department today could also show the unemployment rate ticking down for the third straight month to 3.7%, pushing the jobless reading to the lowest level since December 1969.

mrtibbles, There is no way for the management to be surprised with lower grades for 2 reasons:
1- they have a complete analysis of what grade they have...
2- when they mine the tonnage they know in advance how much gold by grams. (I did watch a video that explained how they control the output with exact by Grams) to avoid any playing around.

They know what they have and what equipment they are using and for how long can it be used and they are very conservative about their operation and they never exaggerate in their PR(s) concerning the production.
And that what makes me believe what I was told about the politics going on.

I am not sure about this too, we may be facing another issue with the contract as the contract talks about the identity of Centamin PLC which was written based only on the Egyptian property and not including the properties of Burkina Faso and Cote D'Ivoire, which they are under Centamin PLC and Egypt's contract is 50/50. (That I may be wrong but it was raised during a dissection with some of my friends)

GLTA,
Dan

SP one step forward 2 steps back gggrrr!!! ATB

Dansul,
I think it is more about opening our eyes and being more aware of what to look out for in the future.

The Centamin management have made the impact on output by lower grade and difficult strata much worse by failing to mitigate risk to the production process, ie running plant at over capacity and failing to have a back up LHDR or even sufficient spares on site

Agreed they flagged up albeit late that there would be transitional grade problems, true they can't do much about ore grades ,

However they added to those problem by failing to mitigate the risk to essential plant and the production process.and that was in their control.

downhill, I agree with you and

Just to be clear, some here trying to prove management were aware of issues that will popup a year(s) later and sold their holdings?

This is insane and idiotic to think that way… If they know then they would of fix and avoid it before it happens.

My dear friends, we all know and go back to the time of management sales and read your posts for the reasons of selling for Ampella.

But, if you want to blame the management you can say; they were planning for such action on 1Q 2017 and stopped and are now going through it on 2018 to retaliate against the Egyptian authorities with less return for Egypt from the Sukary mine and force them to accelerate the resolution and finalize the court case.

Too much junk online going from analysts and bankers to support their hidden agendas.

GLTA,
DAN

The investors that followed Decker's advice would have missed out on some substantial dividends plus the share price was just 60p at the time. Also, we did not have Cleopatra at that time. The g/t can easily go the other way. Just like stocks value can go up and down.

I would prefer to give management the benefit of doubt. They are managing a complex and precarious operation in a volatile part of the world. I'm sure they will do better in future. We should not be looking for blood.

Let's see where we stand in 6 months

Wel,l if today is a harbinger of what to expect on Monday, we could be in for a good-hiding - again. - Masochists or what?

I appreciate that you may not be aware of this article by Kees Decker, it is the one I referred to yesterday when asking the question concerning the sale of shares last year by Josf El-Raghy.

I understand that when Kess Decker published this article his findings and conclusions were challenged by Centamin as being unsound and he later stated that there were some errors in the information he had used.

However in 2018 it would seem that the 2015 article is surprisingly accurate and predicted the very situation in which the company and share holders find themselves now.

Many share holders may now feel that the Centamin management may not have not behaved as honourably or professionally as they should have done and seem to have been gilding the lily to investors in some respects.

I realise that the most recent RNS alerted investors of a reduction in guidance in Q2, but in reality Centamin knew all about some of the grade problems they were going to encounter when 2018 Q1 results were announced and yet Andrew Pardey still stated that 580.000 oz would be achieved this year,

True it was explained to me by IR that Andrew Pardey did flag up potential grade problems, but this was well buried in the report detail so as only the eye of those that realised the importance of such information would find it.
(Notification of major potential problems should be bullet pointed and flagged up on the first page with along with all the good stuff that attracts investors such as predicted 580.000 oz)

Centamin has admitted on numerous times running plant at over capacity obviously to push up production, but professional management should realise that running plant beyond reasonable operating tolerance is not good practice and can only be done for so long before it fails, as happened with the LHDR.

So it would appear that Kees Decker was hitting quite a few nails on the head when he originally published his article.

Yours Sincerely

The report of Kees Decker
Management has put a gloss over this in their latest 5-year production plan, artificially holding down the strip ratio and assuming continuation of underground mining at a very high level,

https://seekingalpha.com/article/3695246-centamin-get-going-good
Summary
The positive factors supporting the historical performance will soon come to an end.
Management's 5-year plan sacrifices long-term future.
Open-pit reserves need a much better gold price to be economical.
Executive Summary
This valuation is based on a cash flow model which uses the latest 5-year production plan of Centamin (LSE: CEY) (OTCPK:CELTF), combined with the long-term schedule in the 2015 feasibility study, to deplete the reserves of material destined to be treated in the Carbon-in-Leach (CIL) plant of the Sukari mine at a rate of approximately 11 million tonnes per annum. Using the gold price as per 17 November 2015 of US$1,070/oz, a net present value at a discount rate of 5% of minus US$89.2 million was arri

ton-fra-cen
As said seems to me both you and Mr Tibbs are right, lower grades becuase of higher proportion of development partly because of failed machine, and on cost side higher costs exacerbated by lower production. So big question whether output and costs will recover next year. You must have sold in low 130’s. With the current price of gold what do consider far value for the cey price now, I think a bit lower, and then much lower if gold continues to fall.....which is on the cards tho it cna confound us and is very jard to read just now, investment demand is way down but sentiment can change.
Then one final question, if stpck marlets tumble and gold stays much the same will goldminers fall more, I am expecting that

Ton-fran-cen

Firstly may I say thank your your expertise in digging out and deciphering the important detail from within the Centamin reports,it is educating to say the least, I do hope that you may consider either contacting Cey via email or telephoning in on the next telephone conference call to raise some of these points.

It seems the Cenatmin are somewhat astute (tricksy)in informing investors of important production issues in such a way that the seriousness and potential damaging effect to actual mine output are somewhat unobvious especially to the untrained eye.

I didn't pay that much if any attention to page 5 in the updated guidance, had I done so and understood it then I may well have puled out my investment, but hindsight is a fine thing and I have certainly learnt a lesson.
.
I am afraid that it seems some of us long term investors may have become a little too trusting, perhaps even complacent and now we are paying the price whilst those on the top table are in line for bonus shares!

See below-Nov. 19, 2015 5:00 AM ET

https://seekingalpha.com/article/3695246-centamin-get-going-good

Thank you to Mizolgit for giving the date of the above article!

Sent to Cey PR & I R 14.06.2018 f

The Cey Management Board may also be interested in considering some suggestions from a fellow investor and friend..

Mr Tibbles you highlight some of the problems that Centamin are suffering,

However I want to highlight some possible solutions.

Firstly, if there was any complacency by management it has hopefully all gone now with the last three weeks share price fall and the drop out of the top 200 UK quoted companies.

The vast majority of investors want both capital appreciation for their shareholdings and a progressive dividend policy. It is about time that the Board made share price appreciation a core metric for share vesting and bonuses.

As it is we private investors take the risk buying shares with after tax income whereas the vast majority of Mr Pardey and Co's shares are awarded "gratis". In that sense we have much more skin and risk and pain than they do. I hope that this point has been grasped.

Market makers are not so important today. 96% of all trading is programming trading.

Their algos filter all news looking for positive or negative changes.

We lost 30% of the share price as the RNS was outside of normal reporting and contradicted ie a negative surprise to that of Q1 given 3 weeks earlier. Added to that analysts could cite the" same old news" as Centamin has nothing else to demonstrate progress.

One country, one mine, two court cases and 2 green field explorations are not news that one can keep repeating as unchanged and expect the share price to progress.

But the tin ear award went for the announcement that Korn Ferry would review management remuneration. I want management rewarded for problem solving and strategic development of our business.

Centamin PLC is competing for investor funds. I want to see our Board being proactive like similarly sized Kirkland Lake.

They now have 3 active mines in Ontario and strategic shareholding investments in 3 prospectors in Australia including Novo Resources. Is W.Africa a goer? If Centamin can't envisage a mine plan within a year we should be looking to invest the majority of the cash holding in a late stage developer in another safe jurisdiction or buy a shareholding strategic stake to harness the gold price rally before prices take off.

I hope the Board are constantly reviewing all options available especially with their Australian roots and contacts. Sukari is an ideal foundation for a major gold company.

Does the Board share my ambition?

Some feedback would be greatly appreciated by our Centamin investors group.

Also please note that Centamin's REVISED GUIDANCE has budgeted for a processing plant capacity of 12.6 million
tonnes per anum, though they state the rated capacity is 11-12 mpta.

Many thanks, mrtibbles. The most important part of their reply is " THE KEY IS THE GRADE". LHDR or Long Haul Rig DRILL was certainly part of the reason for APRIL 2018 PRODUCTION. BUT NOT FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR 2018.
Mine rescheduling couldn't help much. Hence 70,000 oz less production for the YEAR 2018. I am not writing this to
offend anyone. But these are FACTS, which the management have cleverly published , so that the investors know
what to look for. So let us not fight within ourselves. I had over 100k shares and disposed all when I read their 05/06/18 REVISED GUIDANCE, particularly Page 5.

You will note that the The processing plant is supposed to have a capacity of 11-12mtpa – it is in fact processing in excess of that and has been for a number of quarters.

I understand that running at over capacity has increased output,

But what about maintenance on this vital equipment, if it is running for longer periods then it may not be possible to maintain the plant as often would be prudent and eventually this may well lead too unreliability or serious breakdown

So it is quite feasible then that a somewhat cavalier approach to plant operational limits and maintenance may have become custom and practice at Sukari and may well explain the second serous failing of the LHDR because it was being run in excess of it's manufacturers operational limits.

Let's hope that lessons have been learned and there will now be spare capacity in all areas of production rather than running plant over limits!

14 06 2018 re lost production for Q2.

In hindsight when I asked the question I should perhaps have referred to it as "Reduced production output"

Reply
Most people will know that it is common to subcontract underground mining – in Egypt there is zero underground mining in any mineral apart from at Sukari. The amount of spares, extra rigs, etc are managed by the contractor. This has been the case for the last 8 years with no serious issues, until this one. Lesson is certainly learnt.

It is wrong to suggest the gold has been “lost” – it has been scheduled into another quarter. The ore stockpiles have very little to do with the underground run of mine – all of it goes into the processing plant. The stockpiles are mainly low grade stockpiles, and almost all of this comes from the open pit – the new leach pad is indeed having some of the transitional zone material going to that pad.

The processing plant is supposed to have a capacity of 11-12mtpa – it is in fact processing in excess of that and has been for a number of quarters. This is very good news for future production, particularly when displacing open pit tonnes with underground tonnes. There is no shortage of ore to go through the processing plant – the key is of course grade, and the issue with the long hole rig has shown the importance of that.

The downgrade has been painful for all concerned – but production will be built up from this base. The company is generating cash, profits and dividends, with zero debt and a further 15-20 years of mine life left. Though shareholders have had some real pain from the latest issue, from a longer term perspective they have also reaped significant rewards from both capital and yield returns and can hope to do so for the next number of years as well.

Sadly mining is mining – there is rarely a seamless upward trajectory and this has been a blip rather than a crash.

was wondering . . if the dollar weakened - how might that help us in the $ v gold price movement, and was looking for a formula that might help, when I came across a clear explanation of Dollar v Gold - history of - if anyone is interested as I don't recall having seen this one before.

http://time.com/4444172/gold-standard-history