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He MrTribbs
Thanks for a great thread and I agree with everything youve statec.
My first broker was a chap called Peter ...youre not from the cheshire area are you....
I used those Brokers just to buy penny puts....
I am somewhat surprised and bare with me if i am out of order here! that a guy as sensible as you still uses a brok though...
When I retired the firm arranged for us to meet up with one of these so called finance houses....
They would have took the lump sum...liquidatec my entire portfolio ...and I reckon id have been 5% down straight away...hence I do my own thing...
Either way keep up your brilliant posts my freind
ATB
George
Hi Adam,
You mentioned trading success, think on this -
Trading is hard. So hard that recent data disclosed by trading platforms show that, on average, less than 1 out of 4 retail traders make money.
Outside of the U.S., forex is commonly traded by retail traders using Contract for Differences (CFDs).
If you’re not familiar with CFDs, a CFD is a contract entered between a trader and a CFD provider. CFDs allow traders to speculate on rising or falling prices in an underlying currency pair (along with other underlying markets like indices, shares, commodities, and crypto).
Due to the recent measures adopted by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), companies that offer CFDs to retail clients are now required to display a “standardised risk warning, including the percentage of losses on a CFD provider’s retail investor accounts.”
Basically, trading platforms are forced to be more TRANSPARENT and now have to disclose what percentage of their clients are losing money.
At the bottom of each CFD provider’s website, they display a message that looks something like this:
Please note that CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. X% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Hi Adam,
If only I was exaggerating, but I speak from my own experiences and from other's whom I have tried to help recover some of their losses and more importantly their self respect and confidence after they have been encouraged down the same path.
I once used a broker who was a really decent chap and over the years became a great friend, Peter had principles that he abided by, he made a good living, but he never to my knowledge took advantage of his clients, he always acted in their best interest, even if it meant turning down a commission.
But Peter retired, times moved on, as did technology and the way we invest ,no more sitting in on that old leather settee on the other side of Peter's desk enjoying a glass or two whilst looking through various papers and company reports deciding which might be worth buying or selling, then if we weren't decided off to the pub to enjoy some real ale and put the world to rights!
Unfortunately I made the mistake of being too trustworthy with the new type of brokers on the block now, cost me a chunk of my portfolio and my health at one point, but I decided to turn a negative situation into a positive one by using knowledge gained from the experience to my advantage and to help others avoid the same pitfalls, or if they had already fallen in then to help them get out again!
In general, certainly on web forums people are more inclined to talk about their trading prowess or investing success than their failures. understandable I suppose, after all they can be whomever they want to be on a forum, real life as we know is quite different.
The web is a marvelous thing when it is used for the good, but unfortunately it is also a marvelous thing to use for the bad!
A broker is more likely to consider the credibility of trading advice they offer a client sitting opposite them than a client they have never come face to face with on the end of an internet connection !
Tibbs
Gold will hit new highs and keep going, there are eye watering levels of debt, which will soon be approaching 250 trillion Dollars!!!!, endless money printing, debasement of currencies, its the perfect storm for Gold, but the fallout for so many will be unimaginable, meanwhile, the Billionaires just get richer, nothing changes.
Let's forget about Libelium (!)... What is the next big thing we are all waiting for CEY to happen, please?... I've got dry powder, but what I am waiting for?
And I thought I was a cynic but Mr Tibbs you've outdone me!
You post a hellish dystopian picture of people fleeced to within an inch of the shirts on their back just because they lack the capacity or tenacity to think and act independently. I'd like to think you exaggerate but maybe not. You never here about this side of investing. Only the winners!
I hope I never join this particular madding crowd....ouch!!
Any macro gold folks on this board watching this development? Trying to understand the facts and timelines - but I understand Basel III upgrades gold to a risk free asset and furthermore requires that this may only apply if the gold is in an allocated account or physically held. Paper contracts and unallocated gold, in contrast, require 85% capital backing. The impact of this on comex action, and gold leasing, would be profound. I believe it goes live with EU banks end of June, and (I think) also US banks a few days before. It goes live in UK from January next year. If you believe that central banks need to recapitalise, then they would have every incentive to allow the gold price to appreciate substantially. The fear is that EU has 10k tons, US 8k tons, but UK has diddly squat. So it will f*** over the UK into the bargain which for the anti Brexiteers in the EU and US dems is a convenient side effect. Thoughts anyone?
You could put 10p on today’s share price and the stock would still be cheap.
Excellent post Tibbs, it really is a corrupt world where money is concerned,hope all is well,keep up with your posts it would not be the same without you. G. L. A.
Quite so Auson,
But the brokers don't care because so many traders want to be in and out in a day to avoid paying leverage costs or being knocked thru their stops!
None of these brokers are factoring in a Gold price well in excess of $2200. The sentiment a move like this will propel the PM miners much higher.
Adam,
You are quite right,they have no obligation to explain their reasoning behind their valuation, most likely this morning a number of their clients would have been knocked through their stop losses by the "gap up" on their CFD's and now be liable for trading commission, CRD in & out costs .Leverage fees and a nice loss!
In contrast Liburam will have made their commissions , CFD fees, whichever way the clients trades went!
If a client challenged them they would probably be told "Oh the market or sentiment moved against us" or "We can't get it right all the time!" "Thing to do now is get back in, open another position!".
Those clients that are still dizzy from being hit between the eyes by a Monday morning CFD slap down will probably be fooled into making the same mistake again out of desperation and some hope that the broker is on their side, so Liburum will make more commission and in and out CFD fees!
This will go on until he client has lots all their funds, their portfolio is gone or in ruins , even their home is at risk if it was put up as security against CFD leverage!
The bank lending the money will show no mercy and the broker won't care they will have hooked the next sucker!
This type industry that has been allowed to fester and propagate within the UK financial sector for far too long and the regulation of it is unfit for purpose, and rarely enforced, possibly because victims feel they are to blame, or are embarrassed to admit being taken in, the resulting misery, despair and ruination is on a far greater scale than the payday loan scams. the online Casino's,betting shops and bingo although the regulation these and and the consumer protection somewhat more effective, if victims are willing to ask for help!
But I digress, there is most probably far more to the ridiculous brokers rating than we can tell at this stage, but we are fortunate enough not to have been taken in for whatever reason, some unfortunately have been had, that will always be so,until they start putting some of the perpetrators of the unscrupulous practices behind bars!
As Cowichan says West Africa is extremely important to Centamin and as I have said on a number of occasions it is a great place to develop mones given the depth of experience already available. I have no idea why the board has said Batie West/Konkera or indeed maybe Burkina Faso is non core BUT a guess as others have said it is the refractory nature of the ore and then I would suggest the confusion around the processing method which has already been very well covered by Goldgnome.
Lycopodium are in my view the most experienced company in West Africa when it comes to planning and advising on the correct process and if they have reservations then I can understand the focus on Doropo and ABC over Burkina at this time.
I would also like to know what is meant by "Third Party" is this a joint venture, is this a sell off who knows?
I was hoping that Batie/ Konkera would be a let's get mining the oxides, using a form of simple leach process and use contractors operating 100 tonne trucks or smaller and get to know the nature of the mine and grow into the mine BUT Centamin are not that sort of company and does look as though they have reverted to type namely a conservative approach.
I think as it has already been suggested we need answers to why non core and what does third party really mean.
I do however favour the idea of focusing on the less risky options of Doropo and ABC and if the third party means bringing in a partner with added value to develop the Burkina assets then again I am all for it as I would hate for them to walk into something that they are not comfortable with purely because of bravado.
Really difficult decision as pretty much a no win, sell it and see it blossom under different management (heaven forbid Endeavour) keep it and it becomes a drain on funds.
I know technology has moved on but Bogosu had similar issues at the outset and the solution was use a roaster at considerable cost so much so went bust and the finance company had to run the mine until they introduced the then new technology "bug plant". The then forerunner of Lycopodium namely Minproc also suffered from their recommendation.
I would like to know more detail about the non core statement but am as I have already said very happy that there is a plan in place to develop Doropo and add value to the company with an additional mine, hopefully with ABC close on it's heels.
2/2
This column has yet to strike it rich with Centamin: the shares are showing no gain since our initial analysis more than two years ago as the firm has disappointed on production volumes and costs more than once. A development plan announced last week for its assets in Burkina Faso and Côte d’Ivoire also went down like a lead balloon with analysts. Yet the company should be primed to capitalise if gold prices do shoot higher, especially as a first-quarter update in April reaffirmed 2021 goals to produce between 400,000 and 430,000 ounces of gold at an “all-in sustained cost” of between $1,150 and $1,250 an ounce.
Admittedly, that means production will be lower and costs will be higher than in 2020. But the targets still underpin management’s aim of paying out at least $105m in dividends. That is the equivalent of at least $0.09 a share, enough for a yield of 5.8pc, and the higher the gold price goes, the more chance for higher profit, cash flow and dividend forecasts.
Centamin could yet regain its lustre.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/shares/questor-either-gold-price-miners-share-price-wrong-say-back/
Questor: either the gold price or this miner’s share price is wrong: we say back the miner
Questor share tip: Centamin has been a serial disappointment but even its curtailed targets for this year imply a yield of almost 6pc
Gold is hovering around the $1,900 an ounce mark, which means the precious metal’s price has risen by 55pc over the past five years and trades at barely 7pc below last autumn’s record high. By contrast, shares in Centamin, the gold miner, are no higher than they were in June 2016 and stand at barely half the peak reached last year. It is therefore tempting to argue that either the gold price or the share price is “wrong” – and given the current macroeconomic backdrop this column’s inclination is to believe that the share price is too low rather than the gold price too high, even allowing for Centamin’s history of operational disappointment.
America’s Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are showing little or no inclination to tighten monetary policy. This is despite the fact that near-zero interest rates and quantitative easing were described as emergency policies when they were introduced in the West in 2008-09 and despite signs that inflation is gathering – last month’s 4.2pc year-on-year rise in the US consumer price index was the fastest rate of advance in more than a decade.
The central banks’ view is that this surge will be temporary because it is partly the result of pent-up demand and supply-chain dislocations as lockdowns ease and partly due to the low base for comparison offered by the economic downturn of 2020. That view may be right. But commodity prices are rising, factory gate prices are on the up and consumer price indices are surging. If wages start to rise sharply we could indeed be in a situation in which inflation is truly making its return after lying dormant for the thick end of 40 years. Real assets – commodities and property – or paper claims on real assets via shares in miners, for example, provided portfolio protection in the 1970s as the cost of living galloped higher, so those investors who do fear the return of inflation could be forgiven for researching gold miners such as Centamin once more. That said, those who see inflation as a transitory phenomenon will be unmoved.
1/2
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/questor-either-gold-price-miner-160813454.html
very hard to understand who to believe because on 27th of May peel hunt targeted a SP of 150 P on contrary to Librium of 80 P.
I doubt that the Liberum clients will be sorry. After all, they caused a nice wave of FUD to allow them to exit their short.
As for the historical accuracy of Liberum forecasts generally? Ha bl**dy ha, one of the worst outfits around for pushing their book.
Hi Mr Bond,
Having been unfortunate or unwise to be sucked in by Logic investments in the past Liburam seem to be a very similar type of outfit, albeit more upmarket, but nevertheless less utter shysters in slick suits, who care not a jot about their unfortunate clients.
Most likely Liburam will be counting their commission's from last weeks sale of "Snake oil" and already contacting their clients about taking a new position on the next batch!
Tibbs
The numbers today make a nonsense of the forecast by the analysts from Liberium - I topped up when the price dropped last week - given their past track record - the experts from Liberium are not fit to tip dustbins!!!
It is shocking that people place so much weight on stupid babbling and caused the worry and panic on this bb.
Friday’s drop wiped out already, add in the divi and the drop is minor blip now
That's better news and with gold up then hoping for good week
Centamin PLC (06:02:10)
News: *BERENBERG RAISES CENTAMIN PRICE TARGET TO 132 (131) PENCE - 'BUY'
Gold now up $20 since Fridays close....
Equities in Europe traded mixed in the premarket on Tuesday ahead of several economic reports that are to be released during the day. Those include the latest data on the employment rate and manufacturing in Germany and the European Union. The United Kingdom will also unveil its latest results in the latter sector and in housing prices.
Earlier, the European Commission supported the European Medicines Agency's recommendation to approve the use of Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE's vaccine against COVID-19 in children aged between 12 and 15.
The DAX traded 0.40% higher at 8:00 am CET. At the same time, the CAC 40 advanced by 0.29%. On the other hand, the FTSE 100 dropped by 0.10%. The euro stood flat against the dollar, selling for $1.22239 at 7:57 am CET. A minute later, the pound sterling gained 0.12% against the greenback, changing hands for $1.42266.
Breaking the News / JR