Petro Matad CEO Mike Buck confirmed that he believes the Exploitation Licence for Block XX in Eastern Mongolia is likely to be awarded in Q2. Watch the full video here.
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Decided to buy half back , got around 0.90 , showing lots of interest today , just safeguarding as it’s a news rich Q4 , everything looks like it’s overdone and it might back 5% in my opinion come an up day in gold miners , I want 0.85 but don’t think It will happen , if it does will take the other half ! Volatile at the min. But weekness is been bought into today.
Hello folks, been keeping up with events on the board but not posted as sold out a long time ago to pursue a different investement startegy, which if any comfort to you all is not doing so good either - lol. Hang in there guys/girls might be tempted to have a dabble in the coming months as the software I use to pick stock, ie high ROCE, but cheap valuation, is indicating this as a buy within the gold mining sector. Great board, good luck all.
Around low 0.85 as gold and the pound stand but I’m constantly re-evaluating.
DJryan What price would you be tempted by in the short term ? Would 80-84p do it ?
Mine production and market forces are two separate issues. I do not think that the management could print an incorrect output figure. Their projection can go wrong. In fact it appears they have been over careful in their projection. I am not
recommending that one should buy it now, since the price depends on the market forces, including dollar index. They say that the open pit has reached the sulphide phase, which reinforces the possibility of better years ahead.
Acacia reported better than expected Q3 today and raised their FY target. Their previous FY target had a 40k oz range 435k-475k and they now expect 500k.
Hindsight is wonderful but i wonder if Centamin in Q2 would have been better putting a similar wide revised FY target such as 480k-520k a 40k range also. Then because of the uncertainty of how long the intersection to better grade took in Q3 (we know now it was 2 months) then the company would have given a more constructive message:
Q3 improved on Q2 and we believe that with our September step up through Q4 we can achieve at least 480k if not more.
The aim after a setback should be to "kitchen sink" the downside so that the company has a chance to underpromise and then overdeliver
Amongst analysts comments on Friday RBC criticised the Q3 "on a number of levels", including "poor messaging".
48500 oz is ok but Hard to believe anything they say now. Q3 and Q4 are always good , still on sidelines , gold looking weak and pound could strengthen in my view. Toxic combination. I can see the upside potential but think the market will punish centamin short term.
I would recommend all to study Q/3 results carefully so that our conclusions reached could be unbiased.
1. Stoping grade has improved (6.16 g/t). ie 37% improvement.
2.Restored mix grade 60:40
3.Ore mined ( stoping & development) improved to3.65 g/t .
4. Milled grade has improved from 0.59 g/t to 0.81 g/t ( again 37% increase)
5. Produced 48,511 oz in September !!
All of the above are extremely good indicators that the mine strata has returned to the 2017 position. The equipment problem appears to be resolved, possibly with a new LHDR on site or due to arrive. Hence I posted yesterday that it would not be unreasonable to expect the mine output to reach about 500,000 oz for 2018.
Like so many on this site how charming you are, I quite agree about most members here and the so often informative helpful and tolerant discussion. The best board. Well now down before up......
Well I have been in this since the 30p days so I have bought and sold over that time when needing the money, I hold more than I ever have ( nothing in comparison with you though) so obviously disappointed like most on here that we may be running into a bad period! I like this blog more than any other I am involved in as I feel people are passionate about the company and have lots of interesting facts and statistics, its like being in a club which at the moment the membership fees are very high! lol. Best of luck and believe me I do hope your latest buy works out, for all of us.GLA.
Thanks dealts. I accidentally bought more Centamin on Friday afternoon, part of my portfolio is with a new broker Sharecentre and I was dealing for the first time trying to get a price, but the amount was too large for one, so I pressed the button that I thought would seek a quote again but it set the dealers buying them, and my call was too late to stop them after the endless menus and security . Worst was not intending to buy I was still on 1% commission. However actually now so many including DJRyan are saying Cey will fall further I am wondering whether my purchase may turn out judicious, at least I got them back a fair bit cheaper than I sold then, and I was looking for a buy price as too many hate Cey now. Uncertain and I have always been interested in the contra-indicators on these boards. As said before next profits and dividend will be horrible but depending on gold price further out might pick up. I know a large 'depending on', but I feel less gloomy (which may be a contra indicator in itself)
There are many times I could not agree, but this time, totally agree.
Shorters and traders, you are not happy.
I cannot be bothered saying more.
Stop whinging, take your loss, and go elsewhere.
Trust in the management is certainly not irrelevant as you would realise if you ha been invested in the company as long as many of on here have
Had investors not had complete faith in the management they would have sold instead of buying at around 30p and holding depute two revolutions,strikes, court cases, diesel and explosive shortages and the threatened changes to concession terms from profit share to production share on concession agreements
Some long term holders bought in much lower than the present and have been through far worse times than now because they had faith in the company.
True if you are a day trader then up to a point trust isn't so important because all you want is a quick profit, but most of us on here are long term holders.
As WarrenBuffett said it is time in a stock that matters not timing,
Remember, the price you pay for a stock isn't the same as the value you get.
Successful investors know the difference.
Workover I’ll nibble a few if I’m the 80s couldn’t resist on Friday, but will hold back until dust settles.
Maybe he looked uncomfortable in Denver due to the fact that what he was saying was not the true position. - It may be true that he couldn't reveal the truth because it had not been officially released and I think that's a reasonable point to make . - However, it does expose the smoke and mirrors tactics employed even at the most important Gold mining forum in the world. - I'm assuming that what is conveyed here to the investment world is of some importance.
He would know the true position when he used the old-guidance figures in his address. - Finally, bringing the prelims forward to Friday is a cunning ploy that they have used twice already this year and the year isn't out yet.- This company is beginning to exude a bad-smell. - I expressed my view after Q2 that we weren't being told the truth. I also expressed a view that as a result of the silence another revised guidance could soon be winging our way. - As it turns out I was right on both counts, unfortunately.- As has been stated by some of our posters who are experienced and knowledgeable about the mining-industry, set-backs for all sorts of reasons are par for the course for the industry, they are expected. I believe this fact is accepted by most investors. What is not acceptable, to me at any rate, is the way we are now being blatantly lied to as a device for covering up incompetence. -
Yes it seems the jury is out on gold - and the company future guidance is positive. I think this drop is a massive show of newfound distrust - and if gold rockets, that wil be irrelevent - so at some point this should be a great buying opportunity. SPGP down on Friday evening so no rush yet.
Don't really care if drop to 50p on Monday, because when gold does go north it'll be 200p and onwards and imho it'll be sooner rather than later.
Most investors I have contact with claim that their emails go unanswered and not even acknowledged and so are of the opinion that Centamin has adopted a policy of silence because it has things to hide.
At present Centamin needs to rebuild its former reputation by demonstrating it can once again deliver on its promises and that it is willing and able to communicate with all investors at all times and that it isn't hiding facts behind a wall of silence.
Obviously rebuilding the public face of a company is no mean task and requires senior managers who are not only highly competent in their particular fields but have the necessary skills and confidence to be able evoke the desired reaction from the audience.
Presentation at Denver by Andrew Pardey,shows from his body language that he is very uncomfortable, he does not seek any eye contact with the audience and then he rushes though a power point presentation in an emotionless manner that would neither inspire or excite any audience.
In direct contrast a presentation by Josef Chairman Centamin during times when there was nervousness amongst many investors concerning the court case, Josef appears relaxed and confident, he takes time to establish some eye contact with the audience and then goes on to deliver his unrushed presentation in manner that reassured investors and thus reaffirmed their confidence in Centamin
Perception versus reality speech by Centamin Chairman at Mining conference
The market may have overreacted to another guidance reduction, but perhaps it is erring on the side of caution in case yet guidance down grade may be announced.
Andrew Pardey may be a nice chap and experienced in his field, sadly his PR skills are severely lacking or even non-existent, he is not the right person to invigorate investor interest or the markets confidence, Centamin needs a new front man with dynamism who demonstrates confidence and whom investors and the market can have faith in to deliver results not more excuses!
Yes I agree! The question is how low? Might be worth another punt in the low 80s...
Likely fall back again tomorrow on strengthening pound. Don’t think the MM’s are done yet !
'Put not your trust in Princes nor in the son of man' - Samuel.- (I think) :-)
the market has over reacted to the downgraded cey production levels. this is not a time to sell CEY. in fact its time to do just the opposite, Buy. im going to stick my neck out here but i predict with in the next 2-4 weeks CEY will be up at least 10% on fridays share price drop. ending at 92p. “Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful”― Warren Buffett.
Good morning Somnamna - Thank you for that. - So, it looks as though it's been brought forward deliberately to provide a weekend cushion effect. - I remember earlier in the year requesting that the final dividend payment be brought forward by a day, from the 6th April to the 5th, in order to maintain tax allowance equilibrium and also prevent 3 payments from occurring in the following year. - Not possible I was told. -
You are correct Rebess. Date for reporting of Q3 production was showing as 09-Oct-18 on CEY website..
While I disagree strongly with the nefarious actions of CEY Board they seem adept at slipping in profits warnings.