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They say that trees can't grow to touch the sky. - Well they can in America. - It's just a relentless onwards and upwards for the markets, occasionally pausing for a breather, but not for very long. - During the hyper-inflationary period of the Weimar republic, the same phenomena occurred. - The worse things became the higher their stock-market climbed.
'I remember, I remember, The fir trees dark and high
I used to think their slender tops were close against the sky
It was a childish ignorance, but now tis little joy
To know I'm farther off from heaven than when I was a boy.'
Tibbs! For some years now on this board i have said that the international currency system and the speculative markets surrounding them which a prone to manipulation, as you say, are not the greatest system of running the world's finances.
However, I have also said that changing such a system is notoriously difficult, and we are probably stuck with it for the near and probably medium future. When it does change, the USA are likely to be in for a nasty shock as all the dollars come home, and the impact of that on the world economy could be quite scary.
The gold standard is not necessarily a better system, and there is some doubt as to whether it ever really worked in the way suggested. The dominance of the UK economy in 19th century led some economic historians to argue we were really on the sterling standard. The 1920s and 30s were a difficult period where we effectively passed the baton over the USA starting with the Breton Woods Agreement and the dollar dominated the system.
Whatever his good intentions, it is highly unlikely that Andrew Maguire or a blockchain and gold based cryptocurrency can resolve the problems of the world economy. If your conspiracy theories are right, you should ask yourself whether a Russian and Chinese based conspiracy would be an improvement, because this seems the most likely alternative.
The price of gold is not something i ever attempt to forecast, and I just build the uncertainty about its future movements into my decisions. Sometimes I'm lucky, sometimes I'm not. Recently I have avoided a large loss on CEY, but in the past I have not been so lucky.
Either way, we are all armchair speculators on this board, hoping to gain from the vagaries of the market and what we fondly imagine to be our own good judgement.. I don't think that puts us in a strong moral position to complain about the system, however iniquitous it may be.
Andre De La Fontaine
Where is the outrage, there are 7 billion people out there, but we only see the same few commentators.
Am i living in a self created illusion. Where are the millions of miner's and mining shareholders that are getting ripped off.
Countries must be in abject fear of the USA to comply with the corrupt Central and Bullion Banksters.
Why would Mexico and Chile allow their countries wealth to just get stolen?
$900 AISC costs – this includes all of the drilling they are doing outside of Egypt and the opportunity to add more decent ounces is not being factored in at all by the market.
Thanks for the link. I am a believer on manipulation and can now see it could be China going short in the paper markets and buying long in the physical.
Yes cey is in a better position than many especially without debt
But it is just why I have been worrying far more about rising costs than any fall in production (I know lower production leads to a bit of rising costs, but costs are mostly up from inflation across all mines)
A miner like Orosur is now losing nearly $200 an ounce if it still has aisc around $1450
Very scary times for miners
And unlike industrial metals like copper, production is only marginal to the amount of gold there is, so doesn’t matter that much to price if mines close and production falls, plus price is dependent on investment more tha;industrial demand so doesn’t matter if there is less of it if demand is lower.
So why I have kept reducing my holding but still have 25% of my portfolio in PM miners which is horrid
gold at $1000 and Centamin still be profitable!
Actually it was less than that if memory serves me well I may be able to find the actual figure!
POG now very close to a price where it will be uneconomical for some companies to mine. - I seem to recall Centamin stating they could mine with gold at $1000 and still be profitable. - Or have I got that wrong? - If they could, that would be a plus. IMO
That's the spirit.
Gold's retreat is also an opportunity. Just think of all those marginal producers forced to take drastic measures if the price lingers at these levels!
Centamin will continue to add high grade ounces and AISC will drop given time
Fair comments Rebess, the problem is that that the US is now being run by an egotistic Trump who cares not a jot about the rest of the world and is hell bent on proving how great he is!
The outlook for the rest of the world is grim, but then the US needs to consider that it's no good having a strong dollar and high interest rates if other nations can't afford to pay back their debt or trade with them..
This situation highlights why a new monetary system is needed to combat the bullying tactics of Trump!
This could be the start.
No one will win .
Apart from ordinary people caught up in politics of world dominance..
Its been coming for a long time ,I am afraid to say.
Not at all sure where it will end or when.
Hi Auson. - 'This madness will end soon'. - I'd love to think so, but I fear not. - This could be the 'Opening salvo' in a war that America will win. - There may be unforeseen circumstances that will change the direction of travel, but failing that, I think everybody's in for a rough ride.
hat production has dropped off whilst the pog is so low?
August 15, 2018 / 2:52 PM / Updated 2 hours ago
Commentary: Dollar surge, EM turmoil echo Greenspan's 1998 'oasis of prosperity' warning
Why gold tells us this EM crisis is all about the dollar<br />John Authers August 13, 2018<br />3-4 minutes<br /><br />When attempting to cure contagion, it is necessary to tell the difference between symptoms and causes. And it looks as though Turkey’s financial crisis is only a very severe symptom of the contagion that is moving through emerging market currencies. The underlying cause appears to be the strong US dollar.<br /><br />The Turkish lira fell again on Monday, but more striking was the uniformity of the falls in other emerging markets against the dollar. JPMorgan’s index of emerging market currencies fell to a fresh record low since its inception in 2010, falling 1.6 per cent by noon in New York. India’s rupee, one of the strongest emerging currencies in the years since its sharp sell-off during the 2013 “taper tantrum” dropped to a record low against the dollar. Indonesia’s rupiah suffered the same fate.<br /><br />South Africa’s rand, currency of the country most obviously dependent on dollars for financing after Argentina and Turkey — the two countries to have suffered currency crashes this year — is also now under severe pressure.<br /><br />But the clearest “tell” that we should be focusing on the strength of the dollar, rather than on events in Turkey, comes from gold. Demand for gold may ultimately lie in the eye of the perceiver, but the gold price is a great gauge of perceptions of risk, and of fears that paper currencies may suffer debasement. It remains an important link in the financial system.<br /><br />And somehow the gold price has tumbled 12 per cent, when measured in dollars, since its recent peak 12 months ago, following a trajectory that looks remarkably like that of an emerging market currency in that time. It has given up all its gains since the election of Donald Trump in November 2016. As we are in a “risk-off” environment, when investors try to limit their risks, gold might normally be expected to be exactly the kind of place where they would seek shelter.<br /><br />Why not this time? In part, the demand for gold tends to come from emerging markets, whether from individuals for jewellery or from central banks for their reserves, and so this is a sign that investors in emerging markets now feel it necessary to buy dollars rather than gold. And in part, gold tends to function as an indicator of alarm about the Federal Reserve. If investors think that the central bank will be too easy and allow inflation to take off (as was widely if inaccurately believed during the years of gold’s bull market immediately after the crisis) they will buy gold. At present, the perceived risk is that the Fed will be too hawkish (and thus strengthen the dollar).<br /><br />Turkey may be able to regain international confidence, or it may not. But even if it can halt its own crisis, that will not halt the contagion, which stems from the strong dollar, and the re-evaluation of emerging assets that it has forced on investors.<br /><br />
As a result of the EM fallout USD is experiencing a liquidly squeeze.
It is thought that that COT’s are 1/1 long here hedging physical exposure.
Opinion is that this short selling may well be all over by Friday as season gets front run.
Yes I think so it could be to do with thwarting the gold backed petroyuan however this madness will end soon.
It's possible that what we're currently witnessing is a politically motivated move against gold rather than a move inspired by the market forces of supply and demand. - A move against an Asian initiative, through gold, to move away from the dollar. - If I'm right, it means we are positioned in the wrong place at the wrong time. We could get caught in the crossfire.
Auson - Mucho Gracias, Merci, Dank u vell
The numbers I quoted are from euroclear (dot com) ( you need to register )
Its the total stock out on loan collated monthly including positions under 0.5% which the FCA and hence short tracker and the like will display.
Its a lot more complicated due to financial instruments and the like its also not a net short position as FCA reports.
Yesterday BARMINCO (remember them!!) announced a 50 50 JV with African Underground Mining Services (AUMS) - In it's press release BARMINCO said that Ausdrill Limited (ASX: ASL) and Barminco Holdings Pty Limited (“Barminco”) are pleased to announce it has been awarded the rollover/extension of services at Zone 55, and the commencement of works for Bagassi South mining contract with Roxgold in Burkina Faso.
Bagasi is approximately 120 miles NE of CEYs BK prospect.
Today 15th Aug Ausdrill announced and undertaking to aquire BARMINCO
AUSDRILL PRESS RELEASE 15th Aug : Barminco is a specialist underground hard-rock mining contractor with operations predominantly in Australia as well as in Africa (through the AUMS joint venture with Ausdrill), Egypt and India. Ausdrill stated that the acquisition is strategically, operationally and financially compelling as it would create Australia's second largest mining services company. It is also expected to strengthen Ausdrill's position in the S&P/ASX200 index and to result in a lower capital intensity, higher return business.
t's actually an old Germanic word, originally meaning "to destroy".
Thank you Tiger for educating me on that!
Tibbs you are a fabulous human and being a smile to my face. Wish cey did, just sold a few more.