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Thank you Cowichan, very interesting, I just can't get enthusiastic about these West African operations, certainly after Centamin's past record they would be drilling more holes and producing coloured charts for the next two decades, and you would still be waiting for your promised recourse updates!
Considering the past shambolic organisation of production in the open and the underground pits at at Sukari projects like this are most probably way beyond the capability of the Centamin, management at present, they have after all spent a decade and many millions of dollars drilling holes and making promises of guidance updates anytime soon, yet have failed to produce anything of any substance!
The new Centamin management team have yet to prove themselves by sorting the mess at Sukari, a project like this would be just another diversion and the excuse why they haven't delivered guidance in Eygpt again!
10 years and millions of dollars drilling millions of holes and yet delivering nothing of any worth as far we are aware speaks for itself, there is either nothing there or as a mining company Centamin aren't up to the job in that environment.
27th June article. Curry got one call wrong between November 2020 until this week. All the other forecasts have been very accurate. https://www.gold-eagle.com/authors/jim-curry
Au999 contract was on the floor last night. Years ago this gave a high probability (85%) of heavy buying with a new month and new quarter. We shall see if that proves to be so once again.
https://www.en.sge.com.cn/data_DailyReport
@Auson - obviously I don't know what it's going to do but the, clear to my eye, retrace target would have been $1,735 last week but it never made it and has only managed $1,750 this week so I'm very much leaning to bull mode now given the inflationary backdrop.
The Fed/BoE/ECB can BS the general populous all they like about the real-world inflation numbers but they know the score and they need an instrument to recapitalise themselves on, which certainly won't be fiat paper that's for sure, hence Basel III IMO - they must surely want gold up, very up, now.
Dropping below $1,700s very much implies a longer-term downswing IMO and surely that's not on anymore - if it can't go down then it has to go up, be it slowly at first then all at once as per.
I did add today below 101.5p, which gave the total shares I was looking for. I noticed last night on the NYSE my Newgold finishing in the positive, despite a drop earlier in the session. There was no corresponding rise for the gold price at the time, so I took it as a temporary bottom.
Hopefully, we'll see a rise in the gold price now, but I think it will be a bounce rather than a sustained move up. If that is true, I'll sell my recent additions (providing the are in profit!) and wait for a final bottom. I don't know yet if this is going to occur, so I'll let the price action dictate. I'm in, come what may.
I'm sorry to say this, but I get the distinct impression this share is being shorted. The selling was pulled off a couple of minutes before the end of today's session, which caused a little price jump at the end. Unless the shorter has got things wrong, I don't think they would continue to short if the gold price was about to make a sustained rise.
I could have this all wrong, of course, but I don't post here for the sake of popularity, only what I think.
The good news is that when this pullback is finally over, I believe gold will be on the up and up. On the five-year chart, the bottom will give us seven swings ( yeah, a chart - I know).
28 June 2021
ASX-listed West Africa gold developer Tietto Minerals appears on an unwavering pathway towards kicking off the main construction phase at its Abujar gold project in Cote d’Ivoire by early 2022 and achieving production start-up at the end of that year.
Tietto has also just hosted representatives from more than a dozen mining contractors bidding for the Abujar open-cut mining services contract.
https://thewest.com.au/business/public-companies/cote-divoire-gold-mine-development-motoring-along-for-tietto-c-3258136
After one small point I'll leave it alone. Other matters are more concerning:
When I last checked there are a few tough Afrikaners at Sukari. Expats they may be but they don't cut and run. They dig in and, if their families are alongside, they are extricated. Many of these blokes can be found right across Africa. They are a very tough breed unlike us "rooinekke".
The Minter’s Yield.
For the first time in history, Kinesis is providing a yieldon gold a nd silver. Find out everything you need to know about receiving your yields.
https://kinesis.money/minters-yield/
Might be a little early for the big rise with a six month time frame
That said it would be good to see £1.30/1.50 as such a low price is always a worry with possible predators and £2.00 plus 2023
South Africa is a world away from BF and Cote D'Ivoire but I get the point - Africa can be dangerous. Only problem is that if we indeed want to stand by ESG commitments that would include not tucking one's tail and running when security becomes a challenge.
Centamin (and Ampella) have already spent over a decade on the ground building relationships while exploring. It's fine for expats to take a flight home but locals have no such escape route - never mind the jobs Centamin provides feed and clothe many more than just those hired to do the grunt work.
If all we are concerned about is digging up a profit and to hell with the rest then yes - we do not deserve to be in the mining business in West Africa - I for one aspire to do more with my investment dollars.
bonker99,
Back test of June 2020's Gold price then resume upward trajectory ?
We're real close IMO peeps - I don't see that Gold has anywhere to go but up from c$1,750 ...
It always comes eventually and lets now see a rise in line with Gold futures!
I hope I can keep my Centamin shares until they are profitable .
I am committed to a very large building extension at the moment. I may have sell my Centamin shares in the next six months . Think that gold is money and fiat money is paper. I think that efficient gold miners should be profitable. I had hoped that Centamin was an efficient company. I hope I can keep may Centamin until they are profitable !
I agree entirely, at this time.
Spot on Tibbs
Put your own house in order first and foremast and get the income rolling in and then turn to other options
Its paper gold dropping.
Try buying the real stuff.
Might it be the paper being off loaded before Jan 2022 ? in the UK. And September in the US ?
Just a suggestion of course.
Hi Viable,
I can understand some share holders the enthusiasm for Centamin to develop its West African assets, however what appears very tempting on coloured presentation slides and in reports, just to good too miss may come at price that is far too high to pay in many respects!
It is pretty obvious that the majority of these alleged gold reserves are located in countries where the governments are incapable or unwilling to establish even the very basic fundamentals of law and order in place of the state of anarchy that prevails!.
Indeed the murdering of the senior management of foreign companies trying run legitimate operations cannot be taken lightly by any responsible company or its share holders,as such at present any commercial reason to develop operations in these countries must fall far short of the Centamin criteria.
Also since the dire state of the Sukari operation have become painfully apparent brought about in the main by the professional failings of Andrew Pardey and the appointment of a totally unfit for post and professionally inept general mine manager then surely the priority must be for Martin Horgan concentrate on getting Sukari Centamin's only gold producing mine out of limp mode and back up to full and sustainable production.
With the recent changes in Egyptian mining law what previously seemed good business sense to try and establish other mines in other West African countries seems no longer valid, so does in not make business sense just concentrate on Egyptian operations and future opportunities for now, possibly even for the long term and sell off most of these other West African assets.
It's easy for analyst to throw their toys out the pram because Centamin is being cautious. but how many of them would like to risk being murdered in some dusty West African state, gold is certainly not worth that price!
One thing that is really puzzling me is the recent reaction to the slightly more hawkish fed outlook. We have say one maybe two, small interest rate hikes now pencilled in for 2023, which is 18 months away, and gold has tanked. We still have historically low rates, massive QE and M money supply increases and Basel III.
With interest rates at a forecast 2023 level of 0.6% and real interest rates will still being negative with the forecast inflation levels we have, something does not add up in a big way at the moment.
why is gold dropping, they said it was a hedge to inflation, the lying b*stards
https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2021-05-24-richards-bay-minerals-gm-shot-dead-in-latest-violent-incident-to-hit-operations/
A suggestion - add DM to your regular reading list. They carry stuff in detail and occasionally have reading matter on African developments. Cramer likewise. (The Zulus have plenty of AK-47s.)
Postponement of Basel 4 until 2028!
Nothing like kicking the can down the road and Covid -19 has provided the ideal excuse!
The implementation date of Basel IV regulation is postponed with one year till January 2023 and will phase until 2028 due to the COVID –19 outbreak.
With the longer implementation period, banks are allocating their limited resources to other regulations with the priority, such as BCBS 239 (deadline in January 2016), IFRS 9 (implemented in January 1, 2018) and Definition of Default (DoD) (come into action on January 1, 2021). Although these regulations do not seem to have a direct impact on capital requirements under Pillar 1, they do have a non-negligible common impact with Basel IV regulatory framework. Banks should not underestimate the importance of considering the common impact when adapting to the new regulation, as the efforts and costs of implementing each regulation are considerable.
Impact of COVID 19
The outbreak of the COVID –19 pandemic and the subsequent global lockdown put the banking system, particularly its capital positions, under severe pressure. Repayments of loans are Loans need to or will be written-off. The market movements are also hurting safety buffers. But because of the regulatory capital buffers banks remain resilient so far. With the pressure on capital there comes a huge demand for ad hoc regulatory and management reporting. Besides COVID there was already impact from huge backlogs in DoD, BCBS 239 and Modelling.
In order to allow banks to concentrate their resources on mitigating the effects of COVID –19 and maintaining financial stability, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) has announced that the implementation of Basel IV will be postponed for one year to 1 January 2023 [1].
The revised implementation guidelines following a deferral are summarized below:
https://www.capgemini.com/2020/11/there-is-no-basel-iv-solution-leverage-on-initiated-finance-and-risk-optimisations/
Haven’t noticed any improvement on the POG since Basel 3becoming live June 28th , in fact so far quite the opposite, early days I suppose, although it seems the Cartel always have the upper hand!
@ 11:00 - Mr T. As a side issue but on topic . . .
My largest Au stake is with SHG, and I know (or knew) Kenya and Tanz pretty well. Eric Zurrin and Luke Leslie have taken the step of paying for training of ~75 personnel at KK Security. And that is even before they scrape any dirt around Kakamega (Bushiangala/Isulu). In a couple of years' time it is reasonably certain an open pit mine will be constructed along the lines of NLGM north-west of Mbeya.
In effect no one can march in to Burkino Faso/Cote d'Ivoire without all precautions in place.
https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/rio-suspends-operations-at-richards-bay-2021-06-30
re: last night's comments - I know Richard's Bay is very distant to CEY ops. And those Zulus (I've worked alongside them) are generally stable. But this is the problem with Africa . . . it's dangerous. W African states are unstable. Priority = protect your staff. It ain't easy.