We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
It always comes eventually and lets now see a rise in line with Gold futures!
I hope I can keep my Centamin shares until they are profitable .
I am committed to a very large building extension at the moment. I may have sell my Centamin shares in the next six months . Think that gold is money and fiat money is paper. I think that efficient gold miners should be profitable. I had hoped that Centamin was an efficient company. I hope I can keep may Centamin until they are profitable !
I agree entirely, at this time.
Spot on Tibbs
Put your own house in order first and foremast and get the income rolling in and then turn to other options
Its paper gold dropping.
Try buying the real stuff.
Might it be the paper being off loaded before Jan 2022 ? in the UK. And September in the US ?
Just a suggestion of course.
Hi Viable,
I can understand some share holders the enthusiasm for Centamin to develop its West African assets, however what appears very tempting on coloured presentation slides and in reports, just to good too miss may come at price that is far too high to pay in many respects!
It is pretty obvious that the majority of these alleged gold reserves are located in countries where the governments are incapable or unwilling to establish even the very basic fundamentals of law and order in place of the state of anarchy that prevails!.
Indeed the murdering of the senior management of foreign companies trying run legitimate operations cannot be taken lightly by any responsible company or its share holders,as such at present any commercial reason to develop operations in these countries must fall far short of the Centamin criteria.
Also since the dire state of the Sukari operation have become painfully apparent brought about in the main by the professional failings of Andrew Pardey and the appointment of a totally unfit for post and professionally inept general mine manager then surely the priority must be for Martin Horgan concentrate on getting Sukari Centamin's only gold producing mine out of limp mode and back up to full and sustainable production.
With the recent changes in Egyptian mining law what previously seemed good business sense to try and establish other mines in other West African countries seems no longer valid, so does in not make business sense just concentrate on Egyptian operations and future opportunities for now, possibly even for the long term and sell off most of these other West African assets.
It's easy for analyst to throw their toys out the pram because Centamin is being cautious. but how many of them would like to risk being murdered in some dusty West African state, gold is certainly not worth that price!
One thing that is really puzzling me is the recent reaction to the slightly more hawkish fed outlook. We have say one maybe two, small interest rate hikes now pencilled in for 2023, which is 18 months away, and gold has tanked. We still have historically low rates, massive QE and M money supply increases and Basel III.
With interest rates at a forecast 2023 level of 0.6% and real interest rates will still being negative with the forecast inflation levels we have, something does not add up in a big way at the moment.
why is gold dropping, they said it was a hedge to inflation, the lying b*stards
https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2021-05-24-richards-bay-minerals-gm-shot-dead-in-latest-violent-incident-to-hit-operations/
A suggestion - add DM to your regular reading list. They carry stuff in detail and occasionally have reading matter on African developments. Cramer likewise. (The Zulus have plenty of AK-47s.)
Postponement of Basel 4 until 2028!
Nothing like kicking the can down the road and Covid -19 has provided the ideal excuse!
The implementation date of Basel IV regulation is postponed with one year till January 2023 and will phase until 2028 due to the COVID –19 outbreak.
With the longer implementation period, banks are allocating their limited resources to other regulations with the priority, such as BCBS 239 (deadline in January 2016), IFRS 9 (implemented in January 1, 2018) and Definition of Default (DoD) (come into action on January 1, 2021). Although these regulations do not seem to have a direct impact on capital requirements under Pillar 1, they do have a non-negligible common impact with Basel IV regulatory framework. Banks should not underestimate the importance of considering the common impact when adapting to the new regulation, as the efforts and costs of implementing each regulation are considerable.
Impact of COVID 19
The outbreak of the COVID –19 pandemic and the subsequent global lockdown put the banking system, particularly its capital positions, under severe pressure. Repayments of loans are Loans need to or will be written-off. The market movements are also hurting safety buffers. But because of the regulatory capital buffers banks remain resilient so far. With the pressure on capital there comes a huge demand for ad hoc regulatory and management reporting. Besides COVID there was already impact from huge backlogs in DoD, BCBS 239 and Modelling.
In order to allow banks to concentrate their resources on mitigating the effects of COVID –19 and maintaining financial stability, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) has announced that the implementation of Basel IV will be postponed for one year to 1 January 2023 [1].
The revised implementation guidelines following a deferral are summarized below:
https://www.capgemini.com/2020/11/there-is-no-basel-iv-solution-leverage-on-initiated-finance-and-risk-optimisations/
Haven’t noticed any improvement on the POG since Basel 3becoming live June 28th , in fact so far quite the opposite, early days I suppose, although it seems the Cartel always have the upper hand!
@ 11:00 - Mr T. As a side issue but on topic . . .
My largest Au stake is with SHG, and I know (or knew) Kenya and Tanz pretty well. Eric Zurrin and Luke Leslie have taken the step of paying for training of ~75 personnel at KK Security. And that is even before they scrape any dirt around Kakamega (Bushiangala/Isulu). In a couple of years' time it is reasonably certain an open pit mine will be constructed along the lines of NLGM north-west of Mbeya.
In effect no one can march in to Burkino Faso/Cote d'Ivoire without all precautions in place.
https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/rio-suspends-operations-at-richards-bay-2021-06-30
re: last night's comments - I know Richard's Bay is very distant to CEY ops. And those Zulus (I've worked alongside them) are generally stable. But this is the problem with Africa . . . it's dangerous. W African states are unstable. Priority = protect your staff. It ain't easy.
Hi Viable,
Thank you for you thoughts on BF and very Interesting to hear of your past mining experiences, nothing can compare with experience gained from actual "Coalface" or "Shop floor", some analysts are sadly lacking in actual on the job experience, something Kees Dekker has a great deal of in comparison.
You will need to excuse my lack of knowledge on this matter, but I refer to your comments "keep artisanal miners away. Everything would need protection from break-ins."
I understand that these "Artisanal miners" have to work in very dangerous conditions with mo concern for personal safety, or health and safety compliance, let alone environmental responsibility. some are even virtually slaves under the control of local mafia!
So would it not be possible ,certainly preferable to work with the BF government to help bring some proper regulation and control to this mining sector, rather than just turning a blind eye to or accepting the illegal mining by instead providing proper jobs to these artisanal miners and utilising their gained mining aptitude and local knowledge?
Obviously proper security for the site is still going to be essential anyway as in all responsibly run mining operations in any country.
Helps put things into perspective, we have nothing to worry about comparison becuase Centamin's share price will recover, unfortunately this man lost his life just for trying to save the tree's that will now never help to preserve our planets future!
Paulo Guajajara. He stood in the way as loggers destroyed the Amazon -- and was brutally murdered. He isn't alone: One earth defender is killed every 48 hours. But we can help. Avaaz is at the centre of talks to secure global protections for Indigenous peoples and their ancestral forests, grasslands and rivers that support life on Earth. Indigenous leaders are asking for our support -- sign now, share, and let’s deliver a deafening roar into the heart of the talks
Half the Earth's rain forests are now gone. 15 BILLION trees are chopped down every year, decimating our planet's rain forests, jungles, and mangroves. This environmental devastation is intimately tied to the theft and destruction of ancient indigenous lands, and the horrific violence that comes with it.
https://secure.avaaz.org/campaign/en/100_indigenous_land_rights_loc/?brtqjhb&v=133985&cl=18413425635&_checksum=81ed14873c4a70a3d6bd8ecbce5b40c8ac0512669da5b41531c23e87cd57279b
There’s a Global Plan to Conserve Nature. Indigenous People Could Lead the Way (The New York Times)
Protecting indigenous cultures is crucial for saving the world’s biodiversity (The Conversation)
Amazon-dwellers lived sustainably for 5,000 years (BBC)
‘Guardian’ of the Amazon Killed in Brazil by Illegal Loggers (The New York Times)
Record 212 land and environment activists killed last year (The Guardian)
To help the planet, help the forest protectors (Reuters - Opinion)
Analysts are divided on the impact of new banking regulations on the gold market. Many expect an increase in demand for allocated gold (that is, physical ingots in bank vaults) at the expense of unallocated gold. Some people go a step further and assume that some bullion banks might simply back out of this business, with the consequence that there will be a forced reduction in huge short hedging positions on New York's Comex. If that were to happen, gold prices could be expected to rise significantly in the coming months.
For this reason, Carrasco says, the price of an ounce of gold will rise to at least $ 2,100 per troy ounce by the end of the year, which would break the all-time all-time record of August 2020 ($ 2,077 / oz). The upward move may not appear until the end of the year, as the largest share of unallocated gold is traded in London, where Basel III will not come into effect until January 1, 2022.
However, not everyone is convinced that the 'third Basel' will trigger a 'short squeeze' at Comex, pushing the prices of royal metal to new records. According to Ross Norman of Metals Dayli, the new regulations will primarily contribute to a significant increase in the costs of trading in “paper gold”, which will consequently lead to a decrease in liquidity and make it difficult for large institutional investors to enter the market and increase the costs of purchasing physical metal for individual customers. As a result, gold as an asset class may become marginalized and its role in the financial system will be even smaller than it is today.
It is worth being aware that fundamental changes in the way gold is traded on the financial market will take place at a time of increased inflation and deeply negative real interest rates. In such an environment, gold can be a highly desirable asset, which, however, has not been confirmed by reality for several months. If, however, post-Covid inflation, contrary to central bankers' declarations, turns out to be a permanent phenomenon, then the late autumn on the gold market may turn out to be very interesting.
Shares on major European stock markets were subdued during premarket trading on Wednesday as investors awaited fresh economic data reports to assess progress in the economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.
The United Kingdom's first-quarter GDP growth figures were set for a release later in the day, along with Germany's June unemployment rate and the euro area's preliminary consumer price index, all major indicators of economic recovery on the continent.
The DAX, the CAC 40 and the FTSE 100 all stood flat at 8:00 am CET. Meanwhile, the euro was down 0.03% against the dollar, buying 1.18950.
Breaking the News / JC
Happy hump y’al
Lot of money to be made in those countries. In regard to the Artisinals, the best thing is to give them gainful employment and respect, where they get a wage every day...we used to pay them to explore (actually still do in Mali!)...because thats how most of the gold deposits in West Africa (of not Africa) have been found. Its not by the expat fly in fly out with their degrees and exorbitant fees...feet on the ground with pans and now plus metal detectors.
Yes, the MandA is runnning withthe RoxGold takeover, predictably. Interesting the background on the Fronteer gold aquistion by Newmont...what a duster that was for Newmont, but thats the nature of the gold industry. Remarkably few green fields discoveries, forces MandA, hostile or not, and I do expect a knock on the door, or more likely they are happening right now in the CEY Office. I have hear Newmont has sidelined a lot of its exploration, globally.
best
the Gnome
My judgement is clouded by 32 years of sweat across Africa. After all the setbacks I would not have the bottle to contest the hazards of Burkina Faso/Cote d'Ivoire. For starters I'd need a small army of armed militias to patrol perimeters in order to keep artisanal miners away. Everything would need protection from break-ins.
I therefore have a jaundiced view. Hence my preference to pursue potential in the Eastern Desert.
Jun 29, 2021
Fortuna shareholders and former Roxgold shareholders will own approximately 63.6% and 36.4% of the outstanding Fortuna Shares, respectively. Post-arrangement, Fortuna will continue under the name “Fortuna Silver Mines Inc.” with the ticker symbol “FVI” on the Toronto Stock Exchange and “FSM” on the New York Stock Exchange, and Roxgold will be a wholly-owned subsidiary of Fortuna.
Roxgold will be delisted from the Toronto Stock Exchange and an application will be made for Roxgold to cease to be a reporting issuer.
----------------------->>>
Now the Roxgold CEO John Dorward is free to pursue other interests....
JOHN DORWARD
President, Chief Executive Officer and Director
Mr. Dorward has over 20 years of experience in the mining :
- successfully advanced Fronteer Gold's properties prior to the Company's sale to Newmont Mining Corp. for $2.3 billion in 2011
- responsible for financing the construction of the Sabodala Gold Project in Senegal, West Africa
As I said earlier it will take time.
A lot of paper to disappear, it will be done gradually.
London have 6 months more time than the rest.
If Basel works at all.
Stay well.
I know you weren't suggesting that MrBond
I was actually responding to Viable's last post where he was pondering if Centamin should abandon West Africa to focus efforts on Sukari
A healthy skepticism of West Africa aside I think the immediate frustration stems from the drop in gold. Bring back $1900 and we'll all be much more content!
I am not suggesting that.
If they turn out good prospects, go ahead ,but it may be several years.
But LTH on here are very patient in general.
re: West Africa vs a 'safer' location like Egypt
Asking if Centamin should abandon Burkina Faso / Cote D"ivoire is a little like asking if Tesla should abandon electrification — in the sense that gold miners need gold.
- Risk is inevitable
- Development takes dedication (read patience)
Only today I spotted that Centamin was granted two more exploration permits in Cote D'Ivoire and guess when the requests were originally submitted... January 2017
------------------------>>>
On Wednesday June 16, 2021, a Council of Ministers was held from 11:00 a.m. to 1:30 p.m.
The Council adopted five (5) decrees:
• a decree granting a valid exploration permit for gold to the company "Centamin Côte d'Ivoire SARL, abbreviated CENTAMIN CI" in the departments of Touba and Koro;
http://www.gouv.ci/_conseil-ministre-details.php?recordID=425
------------------------------->>>
Centamin is waiting for more a bunch more permits to be granted in Cote D'Ivoire & Burkina Faso (and Egypt!) Taking your name out of the hat isn't the way to grow or to be blunt - even survive