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https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DXY/e3gatekl-Advanced-Education-Why-the-US-Dollar-is-Going-to-Die/
The above link provides a nice, simple summary of monetary policy during the last century to date. The conclusion is highly debateable!
The West seems determined to wean itself off oil and use renewable energy sources. Again, that's all highly debateable, or perhaps it's the speed at which the transfer from fossil fuels to renewables that is in doubt. I don't know. The main point is that if oil does become much less important to the $US, just how will America prevent the dollar from losing its reserve currency status? We get back to the economists' arguments about fixing currencies to tangible commodities or acknowledging that a currency's strength or weakness depends on the economic output of a country. After all, many African countries have a lot of gold reserves, but are deemed poor. Germany, for example, doesn't have many gold reserves but owns some gold (but nowhere near enough to back its currency), but is seen as a rich country.
So, is Basel III the next step along the way to linking currencies to a basket of commodities, of which gold and silver play a role? Future monetary policy will try to mitigate the rise of Chinese economic power. For the West, it appears that the next step to balancing debt to economic output is to inflate the debt away. They tried the other way around, but failed.
There is a lot to think about here. There isn't a perfect system, and the experts know more and more about less and less. So they're no help.
Thanks Mr T that may explain it.
Hi Mr Bond,
I know Alex has been on leave, not sure if she is back yet, you could try these next week, let me know if you have no joy and I will see what I can do to help.
Alexandra Barter-Carse
governance@centamin.je
investors@centamin.je
mailtoinfo@centamin.com
Att Sue Bannister
Office Manager:
Centamin plc
2 Mulcaster Street
St Helier
Jersey JE2 3NJ
Or
Bobby Morse
Chris Judd
Gold to $2300 by year end according to Andrew Maguire, and still not fair value. I'll take it for a start, though. Silver to rise by even more percentage wise.
When I was studying A-level biology, many years ago, I went on a field trip to Lymington in North Devon. On the beach, whilst looking for Mytilus Edulis (common mussels) I found a silver spoon. I took it home, (I'm looking at it as I write) and dicovered that it was made in the late 19th Century. It was probably lost during a picnic outing on the beach.
I'm always finding money and 'things'. I found a gold ring in my garden when digging the veg patch. It was made in Birmingham in the 1970s. I was hoping it was part of a Saxon hoard. Perhaps next time?
Well, even though the gold and silver price may fly, I'll keep the spoon and ring. They are nice memories.
Strange but the address's ending with je do not get though.
Anyone else noticed ?
Growth is now returning and the US jobs market figs issued today shows that the stimuli is working to get things started. With any talk of rising interest rates for a year or so to go we can expect a good run in from here. I can see we are now recovering with some support, well that has been the case for the past few days anyway. I am happy to wait however as I see a long sustained recovery, which may accelerate with a positive release that is over due!
https://twitter.com/bonker_99/status/1411026892002631682?s=20 ;)
Nice rise in CEY and AU today.
Hoping it will continue.
GLA.
https://twitter.com/CentaminPlc/status/1410962057802010625
Our CEO, #MartinHorgan, features in the latest edition of @MiningJournal where he candidly discusses with @TomHoskyns the quality of #SukariGoldMine; our clear plans to unlock further value; and the route to delivering growth & diversification: https://loom.ly/liKXJT0
#CEY #gold
------------------------------->>>>
and my response...
https://twitter.com/DonLawson_/status/1410991071996170246
B4 @CentaminPlc divests Burkina it must disclose true resource
Around Batie there's 600k+ meters drilled including Napelepera&Wadaradoo
CEO Horgan —where's the maiden resource?
@Jefferies
@rbccm
@MorganStanley
@PeelHunt
@TelegraphInvest
@DavidBurton1971
@proactive_UK
@TMSreach
Hi Bonker,
Some conflicting opinions it seems on NFP ?
"Gold posted mild gains [earlier this week] despite ADP payrolls beating expectations [on Wednesday], providing a good preview for Friday's numbers," says a trading note from Swiss refiners and finance group MKS Pamp.
https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/gold-price-070220213
Possibly Marmot will posts later with his view on the NFP?
Look at the June "jobs" breakdown - horrific.
Depression/stagflation at best:
https://twitter.com/bonker_99/status/1410979487378984963?s=20
Yup - bottom line right now is they've gotta break $1,780 - if they can't then it's going up, period.
In this week’s Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire breaks down the gold and silver markets in the wake of the Basel III June 28th implementation date.
The precious metals expert addresses differing opinions on Basel III, explains his bullish outlook for the historic ruling and makes the case for a gold price re evaluation.
Andrew Maguire is also joined by proud Wall Street Silver member and sound money advocate, Jim Forsy the, to talk all things silver and discuss the latest initiatives of his non-profit organisation, Citizens for Sound Money (C4SM).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yYUdqE0t9-c
Sorry typo title should read "Writing on the wall"
Indeed it would but we must remember there is so much un-allocated paper out there the investment banks have to try and cover.
On the other hand it may cause some panic buying of physical AU, to try and cover.
A web of deception.
GLA.
It would be nice to see Gold burst through $1800 early on this uptrend. That would leave $1800 as strong support for any little pullback.
Teachers +269k lol
https://seekingalpha.com/article/3695246-centamin-get-going-good
1. Introduction
Here is another interesting analysis by my fellow countryman Kees Dekker, and it is about Centamin Plc, the Egyptian gold producer. Notwithstanding the omnipresent jurisdiction risk (in my view Kees has been generous with a NPV discount of 5%, which is acceptable for running operations in top 20 Fraser Survey jurisdictions, however Egypt doesn't belong there, it doesn't even have a rating), Kees shows why Centamin might be facing challenges regarding grade and production (this might even be a case of ongoing grade variance when looking at mined grades vs reserve grades), and might be severely overvalued. It is quite a long read as usual, but it gives a good impression of the actions and communications of management, and of Centamin as an investment in my view.
All presented charts are provided by Kees Dekker, unless stated otherwise.
All pictures are company material, unless stated otherwise.
2. Executive Summary
This is an update of a report published on Seeking Alpha (“SA”) that went out under the title “Get Out While the Going is Good and earned the classification of Top Idea from SA. This valuation report, completed in November 2015, concluded that the best times were past for Centamin, with the company facing, among others, higher operating expenses associated with an increase in strip ratio and having to share the net free cash flow equally with its Egyptian parastatal partner.
The conclusion proved to be wrong in the short term with the share price appreciating in line with an improving gold price and the market not giving cognisance to the cash flow sharing that would start within two years.
https://criticalinvestor.eu/analysis/gold/kees-dekker-reviews-centamin-plc-analysis
Thank you for your explanation, the previous Centamin management regime are undeserving of your loyalty, although, having said that I understand your point about trying to keep the share holders happy with output.
I'm sure this wasn’t your intention, but this statement seems to imply that we shares holders were in some way informed of risk, or given options of condoning the sacrificing of fit for purpose, appropriate and safe mining methods at Sukuri in preference for increased output.
I was certainly unaware of Pardey and Co ever making share holder’s aware of the risks being taken on their behalf to inflate production and share price.
I feel confident that had share holders ever been informed of a choice of running the open pit in a safe manner using the appropriate mining methods, or throwing caution to the wind and "Winging it" in favour of short time gain with the inevitable risk of catastrophic events involved, then theywould have been horrified and most likely wondered just what bunch of chancer's were running Sukari, but certainly chosen for the former option of how Sukari should be operated!
There is no excuse; the previous management were guilty of putting their own self interests first by "Glossing over the facts" and completely disregarding their professional responsibilities to the company and its share holders!
One analyst who was honest enough to flag up some serious concerns and question what was taking place at Sukari was disregarded and discredited by Pardey, and bysome others who claimed he didn’t understand about mining issues!
I am also guilty, stupidly in hindsight of choosing to believe that surely Pardey knows what he is doing, as it turns out he certainly did, and Kees Dekker was proven to be right in just about every respect!
So I have to agree with the paragraphs from part of Cowichans Martin Horgan interview below.
However, the company's bumpy performance since 2018 - when it suffered three production guidance misses due to operational issues - means some are yet to be convinced!
"I just can't trust those guys - they don't do what they say they're going to do" was the verdict of one London-based analyst who wished to remain anonymous!”
As far as I am concerned during the previous managements tenure they purposely deceived share holders on so many occasions, yet after every deception became apparent Pardey pledged lessons had been learned things were going to be different, communications with share holders would be improved, it never happened and instead they yet again betrayed the share holders trust and yet again Kees Dekker’s concerns were proven right!
So as I already stated Martin Horgan and his team have a lot on their plate in Egypt, but they deserve the chance to prove themselves as really being the new order to share holders, so I wait optimistically once again!
For those who are interested see the Kees Dekker reports I have posted from 2015 & 2018
Et voila
Quite so as a long term holder it certainly seems that Martin Horgan brings qualities that were were severely lacking,even devoid in the past such as integrity ,truthfulness ,professionalism, methodology and a determination to do things properly!
Yup - 10 minutes until the casino kicks off again.
Just one point on the NFP though: Bad jobs = more bbbbrrrrrr, good jobs = more inflation.
This is how we get PM bull cycles.
I have no knowledge of mining / geology.
Having just read the interview posts below, I get the impression of a man who believes in ‘slow and steady wins the race.’ Sensible and logical decision making.
Given the current position of the share price, the POG and the global financial situation, I am happy to have my money invested with a company featuring that kind of management.
His words provide a tactful condemnation of previous management-practices. - Practices that were condemned by many of us at the time, but equally, supported by posters/experts with mining experience as I recall.
Gold movement sometimes at 13:30- 700k est. A miss it generally goes up, and vice versa.