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darren123,
Thats what they want you to do, the Bull market doesn't like passengers.
All the best.
Thought we might be on the verge of a breakout but turning out to be another none starter, getting dissolutioned with the direction this is heading and starting to think about selling
uncertain,
Can we hear your Bull case for Oil. Its already near $80 Brent ! I think rise in oil is just getting a head of inflation. Saudi won't want it much over $75 as it will hurt world economies. If Goldman say its going to $100 its usually best to take the other side of that trade.
DXY pump in play as the S&P craters - it's never simple is it? :)
Hi Sotolo, Razorsedge tracked me down on CASP and said you had mentioned me. I am not currently invested in gold miners but amexpecting a larger increase in the price of oil. I just thought I would drop in here and let you know I am still alive.
The trade weighted dollar exchange rate may have more to do with the current rise in gold IMO. Is the cat dead? We shall have to wait and find out? Pobably is though.
30 year <2%
TREASURIES EXTEND ADVANCE; 10-YEAR YIELD FALLS TO 1.355%
Got yield?
ISM Services dropped to 60.1 in June, way below expectations. Employment and inventories dipped below 50.
#StagFlation baby
Make that 1.385
1.3783%
Aye - so only about a 3% loss on your money at that rate (which is more like 8% in the real world).
Shaken not stirred MrBond?
U.S. TREASURY 10-YEAR YIELD FALLS TO SESSION LOW 1.395%
It will be interesting to watch AU price in one hour when Wall St opens, possibly more tricks left .
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm
Fed Borrowing now doubled since 2016, 8 Trillion total, up up and away
Morning.
Looking good here and very good for Gold.
Yes we just missed the death cross in gold, however as Uncertain, who I very much miss, would have said is this a dead cat bounce or the real thing and how can we know as we cannot see inside Shrodinger's box. Will we see the golden cross or the death cross next? What a funny time in gold but I thoroughly agree with InstantExpert's article and have kept posting that gold should be the inverse of the real interest rate (ie TIPS) not the nominal interest rate it is inversely tracking, and at some point this must come right; I only see real rates falling - the true result of the much higher inflation we are seeing with only slightly rising rates. Along with our recovery we should be in clover in later 2022/2023. Anyway to some good news for another I have hung on to, at least my tiddler Omi is more cheerful this am up 40% so far, though overslept and missed nabbing more at 8.01 as still too sleepy!
And Golden Cross Due 1830-40 depending on speed of movement.
Link to full article:
https://www.sharpspixley.com/articles/lawrie-williams-gold-and-10-year-tips-inverse-diverge160;-buying-signal_8591.htm
Major stock exchanges in Europe were mostly lower in premarket trade on Tuesday as traders awaited economic data reports from Germany, the Eurozone and the United Kingdom, due to be published later in the day.
The DAX decreased 0.07% and London's FTSE 100 declined 0.20% at 7:45 am CET. The CAC 40 was flat at 7:39 am CET.
The euro was 0.14% higher compared to the dollar at 7:47 am CET, trading at 1.18795. The British pound gained 0.33% against the American currency, going for 1.38890 concurrently.
Breaking the News / MS
Gold currently + .65% @ $1803.31
Writes yesterday
"
For some years now, specialist Vancouver Island-based economic consultancy, Murenbeeld & Co, which publishes its weekly Gold Monitor newsletter, has been pointing to a remarkably close relationship between movements in the gold price and in the inverse of the 10-year USA Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) yield. For the past couple of weeks, coinciding with the latest, perhaps engineered, weakness in the gold price, following the latest FOMC meeting, and its perceived hawkish deliberations, this correlation has widened very significantly. This suggests either irrational gold price weakness, or an undue change in the TIPS yield. We strongly assume that the former is the most likely consequence and the gold price may catch up accordingly. Where gold goes the other precious metals, particularly silver, tend to follow.
In the event, the FOMC meeting, and its ensuing statements, suggested little change in the way the U.S. Federal Reserve was planning to react – it did not foresee any change in its ultra-low interest rate and bond buying programme until well into 2022, if then. Indeed some analysts feel the Fed may need to continue its low interest rate and easing programme until 2023, and perhaps beyond, to counter the economic challenges brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic and the recovery therefrom.
The above could well account for the apparently stronger gold price immediately ahead of the American Independence Day holiday. It still has a bit of a way to go before the apparent imbalance with the TIPS yield might be redressed. This, along with some other positive factors, could well suggest a gold undervaluation with the yellow metal due for further price recovery – in other words a strong buying signal leading into July and August – months that have sometimes seen huge precious metals price rises."
Nice start to the day!
$1790 was the. 100 day moving average, next stop $1820 say the charting wizards.
CONTINUED...Tthe third largest copper deposit and the largest uranium deposit in the world! and obviously not too shabby on the gold side !!!
There is a lot more but I wont bore you. BUT....discovered in 1975, started mining in the 1980's and still has not recovered its cost of discovery, development and otherwise cost of capital! This is a very salient story, not too well understood by the Analysts of the world.
If you think mining deep low grade orebodies is easy talk to Rio about their debacle in Mongolia. Latest of s tring of disaterous announcments...Jan 2021...
"In a fresh setback for Rio's problem-plagued project, the Mongolian government this week warned the Anglo-Australian miner it was dissatisfied with the progress of the Oyu Tolgoi underground mine expansion and was now considering revoking its 2015 mine development and financing plan unless economic returns were improved."
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/rio-tinto-s-8b-mongolia-mine-expansion-plan-under-threat-20210112-p56tfe.html
More aout the Olympic Dam Story below....
http://www.australasianscience.com.au/article/issue-september-2011/olympic-dam-story.html
I would not be assuming that finding and developing deeper orebodies is going to be at the same rate and cost as finding them at the surface.
best
the Gnome
Thanks Mr T.
My notes
1. There is a well known trend for discoveries to be of lower grade. Given equal amount of gold ounces, this implies that new deposits will need to be larger volumetrically [this is good for the exploration under cover, as bigger deposits are easier to find than small -albeit high grade ones], which in turn requires more drilling in terms of drill density, and if the deposits are under corver, then each hole will have to drill deeper to define the ore body. Hence it is logical that new discoveries will be far more costly.
2. Given new discoveries will be under cover, that is having little to no surface expression, finding them is going to have a lower probability of success. The industry has appalling discovery rates when the orebodies have some form of surface expression, when this is taken away? I will leave it to your imagination what will happen - in short, exploration will take longer, cost more and have a lower probability of any sort of financial return.
3. If we look at one of the key examples of the above 2 points, the discovery of Olympic Dam, which is an IOCG deposit with no geology or geochemistry expression at the surface, but rather a geophysical expression, it took a very well credenitalled Mining Company (WMC Resources) 10 holes to find the deposit. Here finding means they had a high degree of confidence they had a major mineral deposit (certainly no resources, as the deposit had a foot print of about 7 kms by 4 kms and depth extent still not known). Depth to top of the deposit was 300 meters...so every hole had to be drilled through 300 meters of crud. One of the reasons they thought they were onto something was a gravity anomaly was coincident withthe mineralisation intersected by the "discovery hole". In the hole the mineralisation was denser than the surrounding rock. One calculate the excess mass to cause the positive gravity anomaly and the calculation derived a figure of 10 billion tons.
4. Following the example of Olympic Dam through, drilling started on 400m by 400 m centers and holes down to depths of 800 to 1000 m. Problems correlating between drill holes again! Had to close down to 200 meters. Problems again correlating. Pick a small area where mineralisation was higher grade more consistently. Sink a 500 meter exploratory shaft (think $$$). Make a horizontal exploratory drive (think $$$). Bulk sample, and met test. New shock! Although they had encountered small intersectionsof high grade gold, they did not calculate a gold resource, as nothing correlated between holes [hint all holes were vertical, clue gold was contained in vertical structures]. The bulk sample of the exploratory drive ran of the order of 150 meters + of 6+ gpt Au! There was a high grade gold mineralisation in the vast low grade copper, uranium, REE deposit! WITH TIME AND UNDERGROUND DEVELOPMENT, IT TURNS OUT OLYMPIC DAM CONTAINS 40+ MILLION OUNCES OF GOLD!...now the third largest copper depos
Unfortunately this is the end of the dialogue, although as Kees suggested it may possibly be that other more pressing issues have intervened and Richard has decided his time is better spent on those for now.
I make no assumptions but shall draw my own conclusions and leave everyone else to do likewise.
Whatever thank you to Mr Gnome for helping to bring about a very interesting exercise that we can all learn from.