Centamin PLC Share Chat (CEY)

for me this news today from cey is yet another buying opportunity. as a long to medium term investor i see cey's as future bright. this company has little or no debt. dont ever forget that :)

Don't think the LHDR was too much of a problem as the underground production wasn't an issue during the 3rd qtr. The problem was the Open Pit transitional ore grade being very low and from what seems to have extended through not only July which would come as no surprise but also impacted on August production. In many mines this ore would almost be considered as marginal as to whether it is cost efficient to process so small pat on the back for achieving some gold production.
Unfortunately looks like rubbish numbers BUT I am now looking at hopefully some good news A. Underground production is performing well. B. Open Pit production is also performing well and grades and fresh sulphide ore looks promising. C. Introduction of solar could assist with the increases in oil prices over the future? (? because haven't yet seen any numbers relating to this). OK looks like a bad 2018 but 2019 looks though should get back on track to achieve in excess of 550,000 ounces.
I have said it before but transitional low grade ore is one of those painful experiences that all mines have to suffer and I hear that the geo's should be better able to predict the extent of the obstacle, strange thing is time and time again regardless of miner it comes back to bite you. Major problem again as I have also said before these issues hurt more as a single resource miner, role on some positive news from the West African properties.
So the past is the past and we can do nothing about it and as I am in for the long haul I will be topping up rather than what others appear to be doing is jumping ship, and from what I can see Cey will still be in profit with low gearing and what looks to me as strong long term assets.
Missed the 9 am call in so look forward to hearing from those of you who got in on the call.

I never thought I would be saying this but at least we have the good old court case deterring any possible predators., ( i hope) There's always a positive somewhere in a negative lol

would come in the form of finishing the year off with a bang. - The only light in the gloom was that September was a good month. Maintaining this output would result in said bang. -

I personally don't think a takeover/merger is imminent, and I don't think production is artificially reduced to aid this
Although Randgold has political risk it would be hard to countenance buying Cey until the court case is resolved.
I hope the current fall is done as next year as said looking much better production wise, if management are right, tho don't they say profit warnings come in threes, so fair value I think around 100 with gold at 1200 ....excluding likelihood gold may fall - however if it was to turn up so would cey from here. Ah is that a pig I just saw passing the window...

Hi Rebess!
As in (for instance) another Randgold-style nil premium so-called "merger", out of which the CEO and board make a fortune, but which leaves the shareholders no better off?!?

Tiger - It has crossed my mind more than once. - Considering the rationalisation taking place in the industry just now, it would not be surprising if Centamin were to be a target. - My fear is that the whole situation may be being orchestrated to achieve this outcome, with handsome incentives in place for insiders to create the right conditions to bring it about.

Rebess - I also thought they were due out around the 9th (as I posted a few weeks ago) but I have been "clocking on" early all this week in preparation for the announcement, mind you it was with the hope (not expectation) that we would see the low 140000ozs!!! which for me would have been a big BUY signal. However we are were we are, I managed to sell out at £1.04 first thing this AM (Barclays for once got the execution right!!!). I have not given up hope on CEY yet and will look to buy again in the future. As I first said some 2 and half years ago when I first started out "I am a newbie and will learn as I go". Well that's proved to be true - and boy have I learnt, much of which has been due to the insights and comments expressed on this board. I shall not let those lessons go to waste.

PS SIKO the pejorative remarks made today are unacceptable, even more so when made in anger.

Final thought on todays prelims. Although I have not looked thru the grades for an explanation I believe getting the BARMINCO LDHR up and running may not have been without difficulties, if my assumption is correct it could be that the may be beyond economic repair. The second Drill (under a different contractor) should be up and running by year end. So 2019 production could be potentially much brighter.

For some reason I thought the prelims were next Tuesday the 9th. - Did anyone else think this? - If they have been brought forward it's because bad-news is usually best broken on a Friday to provide a weekend intervention.

Yes I agree Siko, I am sure it is just frustration after looking like a terrible day for Centamin. Hopefully it may settle soon.We all say things we end up regretting.Very best wishes to you.

Actually although this quarter's production down around 27% year on year, going forward is not looking so bad, if predictions are right this time, Q4 is expected to be 145000 ouches which is half way between 2016 and 2017 production. tho of course lower gold and higher costs. This years profits will be hard hit, but if gold stays up I see a recovery, sadly however think it won't as frequently said. Plus the impact of high oil on aisc is heavy. So I still maintain the 90's are where cey should be now

Hi Rebess!
I also have a funny feeling about this share right now. Certainly, management can't be trusted; that's obvious!
Are we being primed for a lowball takeover?

Hi Siko,
I do agree very strongly with what you've just written. Thanks!

Hi Picket, I respect everything you and all others write here, but I don't think there was any need for the last 2 words in your 08:16 post, especially when the people you are referring to are not the ones who are in charge of the company. Regards, Siko

Conference call

A conference call will be hosted by the Company at 09.00 BST (UK) today to discuss the results and answer any questions. Where possible, please dial in 10 minutes before the start time using the details below:

Participant code: 78774386#

UK Toll: 02034281542
UK Toll Free: 08082370040

Hi Tiger - Difficult to asses value when you can no longer rely on anything that comes out of the management mouth.

That's twice now in a 3 month period, I suspected that we were being mislead. - The about face in Q2 was just too quick for my liking, however, they were given the benefit of the doubt then, I'm not so sure the same will happen this time. - Regarding what's to come for next year, I wouldn't count on it. - There's something afoot here and I suspect treachery.

Thanks Tiger! And congrats again to you on selling before the fall.
My view is fair value is a combination of how many ounces we produce, what it costs to get each ounce out of the ground and how much we sell it for. We know production is 27% down year on year, but next year will improve. Do we know how bad the aisc is? Most important of all however is the price of gold. If gold was to stay at 1200 I think you are in the right ballpark, I go 100-110, but share prices look forward and it seems likelier that gold will break out down as USA booms and rates rise. So gold at $1200 but gold price likelier to fall, I still put fair price at 90p as I have since May. I still think we will test the 87 low. But of course hope not.

Given this news, which will inevitably lead to lower profits for the year, what do the honourable members of the board now consider to be "par value" for Centamin at $1,200 gold?
My own par figure is 110p, but I believe that in the short term the share will drop back to the mid 90s.
BTW , congratulations to Sotolo - your instincts were right!

That's two production downgrades - that is, profit warnings - in a few months.
IMO, the market is going to really punish Centamin for this latest miss. It makes you wonder if there shouldn't be board resignations. It also makes you wonder about a takeover; Sukhari is still one of the best gold mines in the world.
Luckily, I sold out on Wednesday (why am I so lucky with Centamin, but not with any other shares I invest in?). But for all holders this is going to be a rough few days.

Someone's dumping these, over I million shares traded in first 15 minutes ATB

Listening to this company's forecasts is like listening to trump banging on about building the wall, never materialise!!, load of ballacks, why don't they forecast 700,000 ounces for 2019, then every quarter when they miss targets anyway we wouldn't be dossapointed if it was only 580,000!!! ATB

Conference call

A conference call will be hosted by the Company at 09.00 BST (UK) today to discuss the results and answer any questions. Where possible, please dial in 10 minutes before the start time using the details below:

Participant code: 78774386#

UK Toll: 02034281542
UK Toll Free: 08082370040

24-Sep-18 Denver Gold Forum guidance was 505,000 to 515,000 ounces.
5-Oct-18 480,000 ounces
Someone is telling porkies.

http://otp.investis.com/clients/uk/centamin_plc/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=1756&newsid=1196027

The rule is, jam to-morrow and jam yesterday - but never jam to-day.'
The words piis up and brewry come to mind.
FFS CEY managment have got the guidance wrong again.
What the f**k are the playing at? Bunch of incompetent wankers.

Overview
Gold production for Q3 was 117,720 ounces, a 27% improvement on the second quarter ("QoQ"), resulting from month on month operational improvements in the open pit and underground; September was a strong month with production of 48,511 ounces. However operational improvements have taken longer than planned to materialise;
In Q4, we expect improvements to be sustained and production in the region of 145,000 ounces, resulting in a total 2018 annual production of approximately 480,000 ounces.