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As I read this morning’s results:
Well pretty ghastly on the profit/income side and even negative free cash flow, as a result of the expected lower production, lower gold price and the important but sometimes forgotten even higher profit share
Lower AISC which is great and surprising, well done
“We expect Q4 to be highly cash flow generative, including the benefit from the unsold ounces produced in Q3, where we expect gold sales to exceed gold produced.”
“The exploration programme has returned another quarter of strong results. Sukari is a world class asset with untapped growth potential as demonstrated by the continued excellent high-grade underground drill results in Q3.”
“At Doropo in CÃ´te d'Ivoire, the Preliminary Economic Assessment is on track for H1 2019. Based on ongoing drilling and work done to date, the Doropo Project is demonstrating increasing potential to be Centamin's next development project.”
So overall, while the market may penalise CEY today for the dreadful income I am now a happy holder (having rebuilt most of my position) with production returning slowly to normal, exploration looking promising, lower aisc helping offset increasing EMRA profit share, and an improved quarter coming up, plus possible exploration icing, now all dependent on the gold price....
As usual hope I have read it right, and let’s see if as many of us have views as last quarter and the previous ones which were horrid and surprising on the downside which I don’t think this is, in fact I am surprised on the aisc, returning to normal and exploration and thank the board for ploughing through the last quarter, even if the market may focus on the negative today
I think comparison is being done to 2017 and what was promised in the early production forecast. Anyway, let's see how the market will react.. 25 minutes to go.
Not too bad at all really.
Sukari Gold Mine ("Sukari") produced 117,720 ounces, a 27% improvement on the second quarter ("Q2") QoQ, resulting from month on month operational improvements in the open pit and underground;
Gold sales of 106,798 ounces, a 9% increase QoQ.
Revenue of US$125.1 million, a 1% increase QoQ
EBITDA (1,2,4) of US$48.7 million, a 6% increase QoQ
The Company remains debt-free and unhedged.
Thanks Sotolo. Hope this current 100 position dosent presage a further fall tomorrow.
Results for quartet ending 30th sept, due out tomorrow on cey financial calendar website, http://www.centamin.com/investors/financial-calendar/2018
What chance the new chairman is announced tomorrow as well? That might give us a nice bounce.
The rumour of such an announcement might even be the reason why Centamin is doing pretty well today!
Hi Tiger - Yes indeed, most of the facts are already known and we've already had our good-hiding over them. - Why should there be a double doze? - Under normal price-discovery type markets I don't think there would be a second shellacking. -However, these are not normal times, at least not normal in the sense that we used to understand them. - Algos have become a driving-force these days although I would be surprised if Algos influence Centamin. A mid 250 stock is probably a bit too small and lacking in sufficient liquidity. - I don't know to be honest. - We'll soon know.
re But it seems to come as a surprise to the market every time!
Not a surprise, but an excuse to slap the price down!
Not really surprising though when you considering the lack lustre presentations, if they were a meal then they would be described as bland to say the least!
Where is that new chairman, does he have his head in the sand?
What results are coming out on Thursday ? Cant find anything in the Financial Diary as yet. Cheers.
Well, we know production ounces were down. You would have thought by now the market would have realised that means AISC will be up, since most mining costs are pretty fixed, But it seems to come as a surprise to the market every time!
scary indeed, gold we have no control over but still seem to be in the multi year bear
so big question for us is financials due tomorrow, they should be horrid with fallen production but will they be better or worse than expected as a lot of that lower production already built in.
I have a bad feeling that the mix of gold price drop and results on Thursday will drive cey lower than the 52 week low
What is 'Manipulation'
Manipulation is the act of artificially inflating or deflating the price of a security or otherwise influencing the behavior of the market for personal gain. Manipulation is illegal in most cases, but it can be difficult for regulators and other authorities to detect. Manipulation is also difficult for the manipulator as the size and number of participants in a market increases. It is much easier to manipulate the share price of smaller companies, such as penny stocks, because they are not as closely watched by analysts and other market participants as the medium and large cap firms. Manipulation is variously called price manipulation, stock manipulation and market manipulation.
BREAKING DOWN 'Manipulation'
Manipulation takes many forms in the markets. One way people can deflate the price of a security is by placing hundreds of small orders at a significantly lower price than the one at which it has been trading. This gives investors the impression that there is something wrong with the company, so they sell, pushing the prices even lower. Another example of manipulation would be to place simultaneous buy and sell orders through different brokers that cancel each other out but give the perception, because of the higher volume, that there is increased interest in the security.
Two Types of Stock Manipulation
These false order techniques are often combined with the spreading of false information through online channels and message boards that other investors may frequent. The outside barrage of bad information combines with seemingly legitimate market signals to encourage traders to pile on or off a trade. The pump and dump is the most frequently used manipulation to artificially inflate a micro cap stock and then sell out leaving later followers to hold the bag. The opposite of the pump and dump is the less common poop and scoop. The poop and scoop seems to be used less because it is harder to make a legitimately good company look bad than it is to make an unknown company look amazing.
One Type of Legal Manipulation
Currency manipulation is a slightly different class of market manipulation, as only central banks and national governments can engage in it and they are legal authorities in and of themselves. Being the owner of a currency legitimizes many of the actions these governments take to suppress or inflate their currency's value compared to its peers. Even though currency manipulation is not illegal, a country that is manipulating its currency may be challenged by other nations or punished through sanctions passed by its trading partners. Moreover, international bodies like the the World Trade Organization (WTO) have been encouraged to play a stronger role in addressing accusations of currency manipulation
Hi Elonex, there's some twit posted an article link reminding us all how the US got to be the headmaster of the school for dunces. Try not to tear your hair out when you finish reading.
It's called 'Paul Volcker’s Guide to the Almighty Dollar'
Here we are "Poundland" stock again!
Still perhaps our chairman will make a statement to ignite some upward SP movement?
Or perhaps not, far too busy handing over the reigns to the chairman designate I suppose!
Time for Fed to disprove PPT conspiracy theory
Published: Jan 5, 2010 4:19 p.m. ET
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The massive stock-market rally in the past nine months is mostly due to secret government buying of stock-index futures, a respected stock-market analyst said Tuesday.
Charles Biderman, chief executive of TrimTabs Investment Research, is the latest and most credible person to charge that the Federal Reserve and the Treasury (in league with top Wall Street firms) is rigging the stock market on a daily basis.
It's hard to believe that the Fed could keep such a conspiracy a secret for 20 years or more.
In a special report released Tuesday, Biderman said the $6 trillion increase in U.S. stock-market capitalization since March can't be explained by the usual sources of funds flowing into the market -- such as mutual funds, direct retail investment, pension funds, hedge funds or foreign purchases. Read more about Biderman's theory.
The only logical explanation for the extent of the rally, he suggested, is secret buying by a government committee known colloquially as the Plunge Protection Team. It's like the dark matter that astrophysicists conjecture must be there, even if we can't detect it.
The PPT was established by President Ronald Reagan in 1988 after the 1987 stock crash to coordinate the government's response to market meltdowns. It consists of the Fed chairman, the Treasury secretary, the head of the Securities and Exchange Commission and the head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Biderman acknowledged that he had no direct evidence that the Fed and other agencies have intervened in the stock market. But he worried about what will happen to the market if the PPT has been buying and suddenly stops.
The Fed, of course, is a major player in the fixed-income markets, buying and selling billions in Treasurys, agency bonds and mortgage-backed securities. It's taken on hundreds of billions in assets from Bear Stearns, American International Group Inc. AIG, -2.47% and many unnamed banks to which it's lent money. Presumably, all of those positions are duly reported by the central bank each week.
But the Fed has never said it is buying equities or equity futures. Doing so would likely violate the Federal Reserve's investment policies, and could violate federal law if not disclosed properly.
Aside from the legal issues, the PPT would have operational constraints. It's hard to believe that the Fed could keep such a conspiracy a secret for 20 years or more. An operation big enough to manipulate markets for months on end would be big enough to develop leaks.
With so much money at stake, anyone with direct knowledge of the conspiracy (such as a $30,000-a-year administrative aide) would be highly tempted to blow the whistle.
Yet Biderman's accusation of PPT market manipulation is another argument in favor of a complete public audit of the Fed's books. As any casual reader of this site's community boards knows,
Quite so Rebess, The Plate Spinners otherwise known as The Plunge Protection Team - PPT
The "Plunge Protection Team" (PPT) is a colloquial name given to the Working Group on Financial Markets. The PPT was originally created to provide financial and economic recommendations in the wake of turbulent market times. Members of the team are the Secretary of the Treasury, the Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, the Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
BREAKING DOWN 'Plunge Protection Team - PPT'
The name PPT was coined by The Washington Post in 1997. Although the team had a viable purpose when initially created, conspiracy theorists suspected that the team was created to shore up, or even manipulate, the markets. Some suspected that the team could executing trades on several exchanges and manipulate the markets when they were heading downward. The team was believed to collaborate only with big banks such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, to report only to the President, and to keep no records of trades.
The Creation of the Plunge Protection Team
In 1989, the then President, Ronald Reagan, created the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets after two stressful events, the stock market crash in 1987 and the near-crash in 1989. The group acted as an advisory group on the markets for the president and regulators. However, others suspected the group to be capable of more nefarious activity and possibly capable of rigging the stock market in turbulent times. This theory was further strengthened when Robert Heller, a former governor of the Federal Reserve, gave a speech confirming suspicions surrounding the working group.
The Plunge Protection Team at Work?
On Monday February 5, 2018, the Dow Jones experienced a drop that was twice as large as its biggest point decline in history. However, arbitrary and aggressive buying cut the decline in half in one day. On the Tuesday and Wednesday of that week, stocks opened lower, and each time aggressive buying buoyed the markets. Heller suggested that the Federal Reserve purchased stock index futures contracts to stop a market collapse. He also believes that because the Fed already rigs the bond market through securities purchases, the stock market is easy to control.
Similar activity was noted during the financial crisis of 2007 and 2008 when telephone calls between then-Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson and Wall Street actors were recorded on days when the stock market was tanking and a downward spiral required reversal.
Since the financial crisis of 2007 and 2008, many countries overtly rig their stock markets including Japan and China. This type of activity can be effective in the short term, but if equities markets are artificially inflated, the bubble will eventually burst.
Good morning Elonex - My view is that the plate-spinners have no choice but to maintain the status-quo. - It's not a one-off mid-term phenomena, it's a permanent perpetual, state-of-play. If they stop what they're doing, the whole house-of-cards will collapse. The present model requires that the Law has to stand aside and the media become embedded with the process of the theft of the wealth of the nation and the continual deceit of the American people as well as the rest of the world. - I should add, all in my opinion of course, that the UK Government/elites are willing supporters of this enterprise.
I don’t post usually on here due to lack of knowledge that fellow posters have. How ever I would like to ask the view of those who are more experienced than me think that those who are spinning the plates will do anything to keep the dollar and S&P up and gold down until after the mid terms? I would like to thank those who do post regularly for the insight I have gained from them.
Spot on Rebess, a half a billion pound hic up!
But is it any surprise the market is not impressed with Centamin ,the management have never been good at rousting up enthusiasms amongst investors or the market, but now have lost their credibility totally after two guidance cuts just after declaring initially in Q! hat 56O.000 oz would be achieved thus year.
The management an it's legal team appear to be in as comatose state as the judiciary dealing with the court case and it seems that Mr Dead may as well be leading the company for all investors hear from the chairman. and his team.
Hi Sotolo - We only ever get downside surprises. - When was the last time there was an upside surprise? - I can't recall. - I might have overlooked something but I genuinely can't remember. Even in the days of reporting record-breaking production, response was sluggish at best and if there was an uptick it wasn't long returning to previous state. - The market never seemed to reward outstanding Centamin performance. A slight hiccup however, well that's a different story, usually a rapid maximum effect. - Enigmatic, a hidden hand, it's been described in all sorts of ways on this thread, but that's the story behind the mystery.
Considering 3rd quarter production results were so horrible presumably we have the third bit of bad news this week, and hopefully the last, 3rd quarter financial figures resulting from the lower production, higher costs etc. The big questions is how will markets react as this is hopefully news they know. It will be a question of whether further surprises on the downside financially, or we are turning and showing hope for the future
Thanks for the link mick-b. - Great rhetoric. - We'll be getting more of the same at this afternoon's budget. :-)
This classic was from 1940 Mr Tibbles, yet it sounds like it was given yesterday about what is going on in the world today. Sad really.
Donald Trump loves to brag about his Scottish golf courses -- but they’re about to become his worst nightmare.
Former MP George Kerevan has just called on the government to launch an investigation into how Trump bought the properties -- it turns out he used ALL cash, but evidence suggests he didn't have close to the £150m needed.
So where did he get it? Let’s find out -- when enough of us sign, Avaaz will file a formal demand to back Kerevan, urging Scotland's Ministers to investigate the source of Trump’s cash using a new anti-corruption law. It could even compel Trump to turn over his tax returns -- something no one in the US has been able to do!
Trump’s life is full of close connections with mafiosos and other criminals. In the US, he does all he can to bury the truth. But here in the UK, we can show the world that no one is above the law -- not even the US President:
George Kerevan calls for probe into Trump's Scottish assets (The National)
Trump: Follow the Money (by George Kerevan)
Trump Engaged in Suspect Tax Schemes as He Reaped Riches From His Father (NYTimes)
Here's everyone who has been charged and convicted in Mueller's Russia probe so far (Business Insider)