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Hi Demon! Since you wrote your post the "gap" between the gold price and CEY's comparative SP has only widened. What's strange is that this affects only UK listed miners. US miners are rising with the price of gold (now past $1,240). (As is Randgold, dragged upwards by its link to the Barrick share price). But CEY isn't budging an inch, no Sir! Fear of next week's results? Or a delayed reaction gap up on Monday morning?
Am I the only one who see the price of gold is having very little effect on CEY recently? Even after the production cut, gold was 1190 and cey was 90. Gold went up to 1205 and cey reacted to reach 100+. Gold kept going up to 1230+ but cey hovers in the 100-105 area. Isn't it strange? I'm sure there are experts here that can explain this phenomenon. I do agree with those who lower their future expectations tho in the comments.
Not unexplained imho When markets fall so do pe’s so miners have to make a bit more profit to maintain their price Also share price looks forward and worry with miners is if this is as expected this is a stock market correction gold could turn back when markets turn up So the jury is out and miners need another jump in gold to get going again, beyond 1240, all imho
Might be misreading the tea leaves here but reading through todays notes there appears to be unexplained negative movement in miners.- Could it be that the barriers are up in trying to prevent a flight to miners at the expense of the rest of the market? - If this turns out to be the case we may be in for some disappointing times ahead. - IMO
The big questions for me remain As stocks tumble will gold shares be hit by the falling market as in 2009 or this time become the alternative? We still cannot see but gold shares have not tumbled yet with the market nor risen much. Will gold break up through 1240 in which case it could have reversed and be on the way up or is this just to catch us out in the continuing bear When market turns back up for another go at the bull, which I think will happen, will gold hold on or fall back, Will Nov 1 production show returning toward normal or be bnothr warning. This is a pivotal time
Does the engagement include the Mckinsey Report? I have not seen anything on the internet re the contents.
“We have engaged with everybody so that I think in the coming two or three months maximum we will be able to have a fresh, new-look, appealing law.”
A good approach to claim only tinkering and improvements not a complete change.
“It is only changing some of the clauses where we saw that it is a little limiting or restricting investing in the mining sector,” he told a forum for U.S. business people in Cairo.”
I am thinking the "improvements" can only be good for Centamin’s position re the unfairness claims.
“Egypt will present mining law amendments to parliament within three months to make the industry more attractive to investors, the country’s minister of petroleum and mineral resources said on Thursday.”
“The law is of particular interest to investors because of Egypt’s potential gold production, with much of the country’s gold untapped because of restrictive commercial terms.”
“The minister, Tarek El Molla, said that among the planned changes is a cap on royalties paid by investors.”
You're right Tibbs, lots of unanswered questions! But one would hope these coming changes have been vetted by top industry players (or at least the only active producer in the country, namely Centamin!) I take some comfort in the renewed push to explore beyond Sukari proper. A complete 3D underground survey of the entire 150 sq km is probably not something management would pursue unless they plan to expand production and feel confident of the pending terms and conditions. For now we must wait!
Although I agree with your sentiments, the politicians , yuk, have to tread a fine line. They want popular support. They need the votes. I suspect that is why especially in Egypt they are very slow and careful. No more Morsi or revolutions, ,better total control ,like Abdul Nassa or Castro, or even Saddam a Qaddafi. were they really bad regimes? Less people lost their lives,. Compare to the chaotic world now. Who is to blame ,most know that. A grand dictatorship . Now feeling the pinch in trade. And it is not China or Russia. And I was right wing,. ATB
Nothing about changing to"Profit Share" as oppressed to 'Production Share" which is the main reason that mining companies are reluctant to commit. what of the fake Lord EL Nagy , wonder how his mining company is progressing? So what progress on Law 32? What about the Centamiin court case, this has been going on for seven years now and results in a Centamin share price discount of at least 20%! I thought this Tarek El Molla was in favour of profit share rather than production share? These latest changes seem to be tinkering and kicking the same old can of unattractive mining laws further down the road.
CAIRO, Oct 25 (Reuters) - Egypt will present mining law amendments to parliament within three months to make the industry more attractive to investors, the country’s minister of petroleum and mineral resources said on Thursday.
The law is of particular interest to investors because of Egypt’s potential gold production, with much of the country’s gold untapped because of restrictive commercial terms.
The minister, Tarek El Molla, said that among the planned changes is a cap on royalties paid by investors.
“It is only changing some of the clauses where we saw that it is a little limiting or restricting investing in the mining sector,” he told a forum for U.S. business people in Cairo.
Capital Drilling is pleased to announce it has been awarded a renewed five year production drilling contract at Centamin’s Sukari gold mine in Egypt, extending the current contract through to 2023.
Capital Drilling has been active at the Sukari mine since 2005 and currently runs a fleet of 14 rigs, providing Sukari with blast hole and grade control drilling services in the open pit.
Commenting on the contract extension, Jamie Boyton, Chairman said: “Capital Drilling has been working with Centamin for fourteen years and we are delighted to continue this relationship as the demand for our services continues.
This contract extension is a testament to the Group’s solid operational performance and provides stability in operations to support our ongoing investment, in what is one of the highest quality and long-life gold mines globally.”
Centamin provided an update in their Interim Results saying the LHDR was up and running.
The underground delivered a total of 601kt of ore; 340kt from stope mining and 261kt from development. The ratio of stoping-to-development ore for the period was 55:45. Production equipment availability and utilisation issues experienced at the end of Q1, and early Q2, predominantly due to recurring damage to the long hole drill rig ("LHDR"), reducing stoping volumes and leading to an increased mix of lower grade ore-drive development tonnes. There have since been no further disruptions to the LHDR and stope tonnage improved in line with the revised mine plan. As a mitigating measure, an additional LHDR is due to arrive on site in the fourth quarter.
yes, sadly; a. the quarter 3 results were not back to normal but worse than expected b. the price of gold fell and cel's fall is not that much worse than peers this year so actually overall not that much penalised for the lousy results which if they continued would seriously affect profit. We just have to hope quarter 4 is better and gold dent fall back again but price about fair now imho
I was looking back at the 25th May Production Update RNS, and thought the drop in SP that came shortly after seemed a bit of overdone. The bit I found interesting was "The updated mine plan forecasts a weaker Q2 and strong Q3 and Q4 production profile." (because of a result of persisting low grades from the transitional zone in the open pit, combined with lower development grade from underground)
So the share price dropped due to a weaker Q2 forecast, but the strong Q3 and Q4 doesn't seem to have been fully reflected in the SP yet, it seems good value to me anyway.
Is there something I am missing here, or does Centamin look very good value at the moment? Especially with Gold looking like getting bullish again..
Hi Mizolgit - I remember David Seaman the Arsenal and England goalie. - Someone once remarked - 'With a name like that it's amazing how many clean sheets he keeps'. - You mention 'Trust' - Is that a word still in common use or still in the dictionary even? - Never mind. 'The old days are gone now alas to be no more The passing of a heritage The closing of a door But I shall still remember With fondness - All those things That time has long forgotten Yet to my memory clings.