Centamin PLC Share Chat (CEY)

From a major gold trader

Market still sucking in speculative sellers while COT’s take every contract long against them, some lots are closed but the majority are translating into COT longs.
Confirmed reports of large size spot index buying from 2 known sources, largest since August 15th!.
Specs continue to capitulate naked longs into COT hands
In summary synthetic capitulation is under way then gold should move higher.

Sorry just noticed part of reply posted below before it was completed.

Like many long term holders I have held this because of a belief in the managements integrity to be honest and open with the share holders, sadly it seems that it seem that there have been some questionable short-term gain mining practices carried out (high grading) to hide the true state of Sukari ore grades.
Last year and prior to hitting the surprise lower ore grades, (surprise to us that is)a very senior management member decided to step down whilst disposing of large amounts of their holdings, of course I understand that may be just coincidence.
Like many other long term holders I been led to believe that the management consisted of highly experienced mining and financial professionals who ensured that the company didn't take unnecessary risks.
So who would have thought that to save a few quid (in the scale of the financial pain now being endured) that absolutely critical pieces of production equipment (LHDR) were being run at or over limits without essential spare parts available or any credible back up plan in place.
But lessons have been learned we have been assured by the same management, yet only last week it was slipped into the Egyptian press that recent production had suffered due to three pieces of the same type of plant breaking down.
So Sotolo in answer to your question why do I hold, well now it's simple I had faith in the management, unfortunately it seems that faith was misplaced because of complacency, a slap dash regard to essential plant maintenance and a complete failure to communicate with the share holders regarding the true state of the ore at Sukari resulting hall a billion pounds being wiped of the value of the company.
However I shall hold for now and hope that at least some things may improve at Sukari, that Law 32 just might be settled one way or the other ,perhaps in 2019 and that the US led cartel don't manage to manipulate the POG down though the floor,
Who knows the new chairman (whoever that is) may make a statement! Soon!

http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=AST&ArticleCode=t56ylklu&ArticleHeadline=Resignation_of_the_Director_of_ARSO

If they could apply this to the court case and make someone accountable it may help generate some momentum to resolving it..

Like many long term holders I have held this because of a belief in the managements integrity to be honest and open with the share holders, sadly it seems that it seem that there have been some questionable short-term gain mining practices carried out (high grading) to hide the true state of Sukari grades from the shareholders.
Last year and prior to hitting the surprise lower ore grades, (surprise to us that is)a very senior manegment member has decided to step down whilst disposing of large amounts of their holdings, of course I understand that may be just coincidence..
Like many other long term holders I a had been given the impression believe that the management consisted of highly compitant mining professionals not only wise and prudent reagding

Looking at it from a balance-scale perspective, their has been some excellent dividend payments, no doubt about it. - On the other side of the scales the devastating loss of value has more than wiped-out all the dividend benefit ever paid and some. - For long-term holders this has been a disaster. - The dividend-hoppers, the ones who buy-in for the divi-payment and sell upon receipt, have probably benefitted the most here and have proved to be the most shrewd.

Dear Mr Tibbs
How the market moves day by day doesn’t bother me, I believe the longer the time the more the market will deliver a price that balances buyers and sellers. I agree the profit warning so soon after promising good production was hopeless and the situation took longer to resolve than expected, I worry without Josef, but overall I hope and believe that this year’s mechanical problems, resulting partly from our management trying to save money, are over and production will recover next year. That is why I stay in. I think management have paid me some great dividends, rather than pouring money into worthless exploration that has been the bane of rivals, and manages the political situation, laws and politics that Acacia fell foul of and even Randgold has found difficult. However if you believe the gold price is all a conspiracy for holding it down, and our management are so inept, why do you continue to hold the share? You may be right but if so you should already have sold or be selling now. I don’t agree so remain a holder

Great that this board encompasses different views, and hopefully all contributors influence each other a bit.

Now let’s just hope gold doesn’t retest it’s Xmas 2015 lows, and that the seven year old gold bear market doesn’t have too many more years to run.

All best Tibbs and keep posting, it is the differing views that are so helpful and make this board special

Re I am neither attacking nor defending the management,

Then it's time you did Sotolo, get off the fence about them and the bunch of cartel stinkers in the US that manipulate the gold price using paper, they are a bunch of carpet baggers , albeit one's that pull the levers, influence the charts and have prior knowledge days before ordinary investors which way the market will move.
The Centamin management acted without integrity and instead of preparing share holders for the fact that poorer grades that were going to be enountered in 2018 they resorted to high grading, delayed processing of waste and and gave investors the impression that 560.000 ozs would be achieved in 2018 in the Q! report, this was also announced in the Egyptian media via the brother of the present chairman.
You keep referring to the chart's, yet you know as well as I do that the the US cartel suppress and manipulate the price of gold by making paper sales that never deliver any actual bullion.
Whilst the Cey management can't be blamed for the POG overall , they can be blamed for not being entirely honest with share holders about any potential problem such as poorer grades.
Certainly I can't understand any high volume investor being satisfied with the managements performance this year.
They state lessons have been learned?
Have they really?
I am yet to see any evidence or any real effort by the management to exhibit just how much things have changed.
We have not been presented by the management with any evidence that production is being restored
We have received no updates on the delivery of the new LHDR apart from sometime in Q$ perhaps ?
We have been made aware of thee pieces of essential plant breaking down which has reduced production output!
L32 ratified in Q1 2018, perhaps or will a decision be deferred to a later date yet again?

Hi Tibbs - Concerned about three further break-downs. - Is this a leak preparing us for further bad news that can be justified due to said break-downs? - It's either truth or invention. - If we've been told lies the board has no other course but to invent reasons in order to cover them up. - It's possible we are entering the unluckiest mine phase where suddenly things begin to happen that are beyond the control of management but play nicely into covering lies.
The tactic is so obvious that I don't think they would attempt it, although I have experienced the same syndrome in other investments in the past. I have referred to them in my previous posts. - One way of checking of course will be to keep an eye open for reported weekly shipments. Siko reminded us last week that they are still being reported through Masress.com. - So if anyone would like to give it a try, they are usually reported on Mondays. - I keep trying but have never yet been successful in locating said news items.

I am neither attacking nor defending the management, just saying the share price was at this point a couple of years ago with gold around 1200, on the way up, and profit share is higher now so to me the share price has now discounted the mechanical failures of last spring and moved beyond it expecting recovering production and is a function of the price of gold, which is sadly falling as there are more attractive places for money with rising interest rates and US shares expected to resume their heady climb. Other gold shares have been doing the same, without mechanical problems. Investors may of course be wrong but as long as they continue to shun gold I expect Centamin will fall more, as our profits are expected to be lower even with fully recovered output, and if gold turns up then so will Cey. So share price pretty much function of gold price with output recovering to where it was and remaining pretty stable. Just imho.

I agree the POG does have an effect , however we wouldn't be this low if it were not for the recent failings of the manegment .
Stop defending them they need their ars(es kicking for not doing their jobs properly and for not being up not being open or honest about the ore grades, the grades were not unexpected as claimed in the Q! report, they were warned about them in 2015 but chose to gloss over the facts.
Also they sat on their complacent butts and let the LHDR run itself to destruction and yet despite that three pieces of plant, yes three have packed up in the last weeks!
What has happened to maintenance?

We need a default where gold can't be delivered as per contract. - If AM s right about Central Bank purchases and tight delivery then spot price is wrong. If he's putting-out deceitful, misleading information, even though he's trading everyday at the physical-delivery gold-face, then the gold-price is correct. - Meaning the PPT is a myth and comex is as straight as a die.

Sadly I think it’s not in the doldrums but falling again, and not due to management but the falling price of gold being back on again, after the October respite, which is hitting some other miners even harder. I don’t see cey turning until the gold piece does and that could be a while

I am afraid this is doomed to remain in the doldrums for the time being and it is hardly surprising.
Last week an disclosure in the Egyptian press that thee pieces of plant had all broken down ?
Not a peep from the outgoing or the new chairman.
Nothing really positive announced about anything really, although even if there was who is gong to believe what the management are saying after their failures of 2018?

...surely a show of such confidence will help all majors involved in Egypt.

BP to invest $2.8B in Abu Dhabi, Egypt
BP Plc. is planning to spend approximately $1.8 billion in Egypt during next year and around $1 billion in the emirate of Abu Dhabi, seeking to strengthen its presence in the Middle East, the company's Chief Executive Officer Bob Dudley told the National on Monday. He also stated that the facility in the Omani desert, Khazzan, is set to produce around 1.5 billion cubic feet of gas per day by 2021.

"We've spent in the last two years $6.8bn in Egypt and it will be about $1.8bn dollars next year, Khazzan, is way out there and in Oman and the Adco concession each year as well is well over a $1bn of capital expenditure each year for Abu Dhabi, so it’s a really important part of BP’s world," Dudley pointed out.

BP is also planning to partner with Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) in a $45 billion investment planned to be executed in the next five years, focused on expanding the Ruwais downstream facility. The two companies said they would build the largest integrated refinery in the world by doubling current refining capacities and expanding chemicals capacities to up to three times.

Breaking the News / SS

At times ,I wonder whether Mr Murray, posts on this BB.
Just an observation, no more..
As I have noticed before ,late and delayed trades say a lot.
The algo bots seem to favour individual trades rather than volumes.
That is no doubt down to the program design, rather than sentiment or reality.
A form of manipulation, maybe.?
But what do I know?
Sit tight lth
The day will come. .
The tea leaves say so. lol.
Have a good Sunday.

https://kingworldnews.com/andrew-maguire-11-10-2018/

True A.M. has said this in the past, but a crooked system run by a cartel who have huge resources and seemingly limitless paper funding at their disposal in order to manipulate the monetary sytem were never going to be easy to make change their ways, that would expose the whole sham.
But despite their reluctance to change as A.M. states the Chinese and other central banks have been taking advantage of all the cheap gold the western cartel has made available.

Recess AM saying gold about to soar and it then tumbling is sadly not out of balance but quite as normal, for years it seems to me AM has said gold is about to soar as it has fallen, one day hopefully he has to be right unless gold continues falling for decades. He is like the stock permabears but a perambull bless him, just a shame he believes in all sorts of conspiracy theories that don’t result in the moves he predicts, rather than analysing a market of buyers and sellers worried by rising interest rates and dollar etc imho

Hi Rebess, it's all very curious messaging indeed!

Here's some more from Aton just repeating what I've already posted yesterday. Everyone sounds hopeful but we've been here before only to watch our expectations drowned in the cruel sands of time... ( just trying to curb my enthusiasm !)

It was today announced by Prime Minister Madbouly’s Cabinet that it has approved the long awaited changes to the Mineral Resources Act, and will be moving away from the oil and gas focused Production Sharing Agreement (PSA) model and abolishing the requirement for a 50:50 Joint Venture with EMRA. The Government hopes to have the changes ratified by the Parliament by the end of the year.

“This is wonderful news, not only for Aton shareholders, but for the future of investment into the Egyptian mining sector and the Egyptian economy as a whole” remarked Mark Campbell, President and CEO.

“The recognition by the Government of Egypt that mineral exploration and mining are wholly different businesses to oil and gas has been a long time coming. Aton believes the effect that these changes will have on investment in exploration and mining will be significant -- the scrapping of the PSA, for a transparent tax, rent and royalty system, along with getting rid of the requirement for a 50:50 joint venture with EMRA, should be of great interest to exploration companies all around the world.

Egypt has vast unexplored areas and is one of the last untouched mineral exploration frontiers in the world. One only has to look at what occurred in Ecuador after its Government amended the mining law, to get an idea of what could transpire in Egypt.

Aton understands that the Government plans to streamline and simplify the acquisition of exploration licences and do away with oil and gas style bid rounds.

It is a testament to the vision of President El Sisi and the Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, Tarek El Molla that these changes are being made, and in short order too, and also in choosing Wood Mackenzie to advise the Government on amendments and to help implement them.

Aton expects to benefit from the proposed changes - within our 738 km Abu Marawat licence area, we have a development project at Hamama and 17 solid exploration targets, including our major exploration project at Rodruin. I am confident that the future for Aton and the Egyptian exploration and mining business is very bright indeed.”

Something out of balance between Andrew Maguires comments on KWN today and gold price dropping like a stone.

Hi Cowichan - 250km - Wow, I've never heard of a marathon that distance. - Talc sales should do well. - Interesting P.R. don't you think? - 'Egypt is safe' endorsed by a successful company operating there. - Relations with Gov. must be excellent I'm thinking. - Does it send a message or what?

HURGHADA - 9 Nov 2018: A marathon held under the slogan "Egypt is Safe" kicked off on Friday from Upper Egypt’s Edfu city on the west bank of the River Nile to Marsa Alam, a town located in south-eastern Egypt on the western shore of the Red Sea.

As many as 90 Egyptian competitors along with 40 participants from foreign countries partake in the 250-km marathon, which is organized by Sukari Mine.

The foreign competitors are coming from the UK, Australia, Burkina Faso, South Africa and Canada.

http://www.egypttoday.com/Article/9/60231/%E2%80%9CEgypt-is-Safe%E2%80%9D-marathon-kicks-off-from-Edfu-to-Marsa

Nice rise today on the back of hawkish sentiment from the Fed and possible rate rises next month. Seen 100 already despite gold falling a fair bit over the last two days. Could we be finishing over 100 today ?

, This is the PDF file of the full concession agreement (law 222 year 1994):

http://gate.ahram.org.eg/Media/News/2017/2/26/2017-636237441861789391-178.pdf

In page 53, article 8, b, ii, (in any other areas approved by EMRA & Centamin and accounting adjustment shall be made).

So if Centamin needed to use the assets for another area and EMRA agreed, then that would be OK (for a charge of course).

Posted by Siko

-Hamdy is an engineer, and his friend -Wael Elsaid- is the lawyer who represents him in courts, so all his cases do not cost him anything as they both share the same views.
-He calls himself "The first fighter against corruption".
-He has been filing cases for a very long time. This is not something against a certain government. He has been doing this since Mubarak regimen, started with Madinaty case and continued during the interim military government, Mursi and now Sisi.
-Not many people share the same view as him regarding the court cases, and he always asks people to attend the hearings with him, but very few people do.
-He is popular in his home city "Almahala", where he sometimes wins as the MP.
-I think court cases is something he really believes in, and I personally do not think he does it for any financial gain.
-When I look at his cases, I could see that he only considers the contracts and nothing else. He does not look at the whole picture and the long term benefits of these contracts. For instance, Madinaty case-Egypt's biggest administrative case- where he is disputing selling a huge piece of land -33million sq meter- very cheap, I actually agree with the government on this one. Only 7% of Egypt is populated, while 93% is desert, so the government sold a huge piece of land in the desert very cheap, where the investor was going to build all the infrastructure and build a state of the art new city and the government to take 7% of the built units, I think this is great, and just for your information, they city is nearly finished now and the whole area around it is getting built by other investors and it is one of Egypt's most expensive areas now, so good thinking by the government, while on paper and in black & white, they sold it very cheap. So would the judge just stick to the law and look at the actual value of the land which was sold cheap, or use the spirit of the law and consider the whole benefits of the project and all the developments and the jobs that have now spread around that area??
-I have seen all CEY actual CC papers from the first ruling to commissioners report, and honestly there is nothing solid Hamdy has provided. He is just shouting unfair, cheap, corruption.. but there is nothing.. not one single document to support any of his claims.