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I totally agree Mr T The market is very unforgiving about under delivering against previous targets , especially where they think there has been dishonesty or incompetence involved.
Everything that I have read about the new CEO although admittedly little suggests that he brings with him a good reputation and also lots of goodwill.
I don't think the market has given him credit for that yet, but hopefully in time it will
Hi Candid,
I'm not disputing the valuations of other companies or your statement that Centamin seems undervalued.
The reason for this is loss of market confidence due to senior management being less than honest in the past about operations at Sukari.
The new CEO Martin Horgan sees restoration of market confidence as a priority!
Worldwide Green Energy developments
The world’s first and largest climate-positive direct air capture and storage plant, making direct air capture and storage a reality.
The launch of Orca was not only a monumental moment for Climeworks but the direct air capture industry as a whole.https://climeworks.com/orca
https://www.en-former.com/en/these-technologies-will-shape-the-energy-transition/?etcc_med=SEA&etcc_par=Google&etcc_cmp=KRenewableinnovations&etcc_grp=126401432773&etcc_bky=green%20energy%20technology&etcc_mty=b&etcc_plc=&etcc_ctv=543238160867&etcc_bde=c&etcc_var=EAIaIQobChMIttmptqON8wIVpWLmCh1MCQvXEAMYAiAAEgL5PPD_BwE&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIttmptqON8wIVpWLmCh1MCQvXEAMYAiAAEgL5PPD_BwE
https://renewable-world.org/category/stories-of-change/
https://un****theworld.net/videos/
https://www.un.org/en/chronicle/article/icelands-sustainable-energy-story-model-world
The creation of a new new jobs in a whole new UK industry producing equipment to generate green energy was in the last two Labour party manifesto's.
Hi Mr Gnome,
Boris has always lied throughout his journalist and political carriers and he gets away with it because the general public are fooled by his act of being the cuddly bumbling fool who says what he thinks.
Unfortunately this spoilt child of a man who lies like a toddler and has only the vaguest of political convictions is now prime minister, a result of a political drama launched by Johnson’s fellow old Etonian David Cameron when he chose to organise a referendum on British membership of the EU
Ultimately Johnson is the epitome of the British ruling class, who in their quest for power are happy to gamble cynically with the future of their country and the livelihoods of their fellow citizens.
Boris was for a long time against the idea of the UK leaving the EU, although the pragmatic buffoon has now shown he is capable of taking Britain over the cliff into the abyss, which would be totally at odds with the statesmanship of his political idol, Winston Churchill, but Boris Johnson might think that amusing!
Major stock indexes in Europe traded in red premarket on Monday with today's revamp of Germany's DAX in focus. Over the weekend, Lufthansa AG reported it has approved a capital increase of €2.1 billion.
The FTSE 100 dropped 0.65% below the flatline at 7:36 am CET, while the DAX and the CAC 40 both lost 0.84% at the same time.
The euro was flat against the greenback at 7:37 am CET, changing hands for 1.17170. The pound decreased 0.20% concurrently to sell for 1.37100 dollars.
Breaking the News / MD
Gnome, they’re very informative posts especially the comparison of the miners premiums.
I’m heavily into CEY at the moment and am very confident that in a few years time all the mishaps will be behind us.
I have been reading this board for years and we’re lucky to have some very well versed people that know their stuff on mining.
Keep up the good work.
Where’s DASUT not seen him post for a while.?
There is a case in point unwinding in Australia , where an old mine, valued at A$290m, is coming to life again with new owners, new insights of geology etc in a company called 29Metals which now enjoys a Market Cap of A$1.14billion
When EMR (buyers, who then vended it into 29Metals) secured this asset some four years ago it had a mine life of only 3 years, it only had about 3 million tonnes in reserves.
Today it’s got a 10 year mine life, it’s got 13Mt in reserves, it’s got a copper equivalent grade of over 4% because we produce copper, zinc, lead, gold and silver there, and a copper grade of over 4% is just outstanding.
With these systems and it’s a VMS system, they just keep on giving. Golden Grove has been going for over 30 years and whilst we’ve got a 10 year mine life now it’s almost certainly going to go for a lot longer than that.
Peter Albert filled a gap for investors earlier this year when he led a collection of privately held copper assets onto the ASX under the banner of 29Metals, and, based on drilling results from last week, the company is fast filling another important gap.
The 29Metals team drilled six holes into a section of earth positioned between three pods of known resource at the company’s flagship Golden Grove mine in Western Australia.
While it is early days, the mineralisation found in those “Cervantes” holes has raised hopes that the geological system at Golden Grove is larger, richer and more connected than was previously understood.
So who got the value right? Who got the value wrong?
The value of CEY, which is producing, profitably, which has money in the bank, and will expand its ore reserves and ore resources ... etc .... is very undervalued, but do your own calculations and research
best
the Gnome
A measure which I like to use to decide whether or not I feel the market is under or overvaluing the share is to identify what premium, in terms of share price, is the market putting on the net book value of the company's assets .
The results were striking.
I looked at the 3 big players , Glencore, BHP and Rio Tinto, one medium sized which was Polymetal and 3 smaller companies of Centamin , Ferrexpo and Hoschild.
These are the results of the premiums that the market is making of the net assets of these companies .
1. BHP....137 %
2. Rio Tinto ..107 %
3. Glencore...74 %
4. Polymetal ...331 yes 331%
5. Ferrexpo ...73 %
6. Hoschild ..27 %
7. Centamin ?????
The premium that the market is paying on Centamins net assets is just 8 %. That is a staggering statistic demonstrating just how unloved Centamin is ...and I thought I had no friends. ..just think about poor Centamin !
Joking apart ..that is why I have invested in them .
At the current market price a billionaire could buy the company , and then find £215 million of cash in the bank !! Yes I think it's a bargain whichever way you look at it
This is NOT investment advice DYOR there are lots of other methods being used as you can see from other postings
A key warning to be aware of though is that I am assuming all other things are remaining equal. We only know what the company has told us. . . What worries me on that score , and I am a worrier where my wealth is concerned, is that so far we have only had one piece of bad news which was regarding the reduced production levels , the adage goes that bad news comes in threes , so if that is true , what is next ? A collapsing gold price perhaps .. I try not to think about that.
Sorry I didn't finish my post it got cut off :
3. Enterprise Value = Market Value plus overdrafts or in Centamins case minus cash = £1.04bn - £215m in cash = £825 million (£0.72 per share )
Of course in reality a company is only worth what somebody will pay for it and the last time that this was tested was with Endeavour Mining bid of $1.9bn or £1.4bn or £1 .25 per share in Dec 2019, which was a 13% premium on the previous day's share price ..
Endeavour withdrew their bid because of amongst other things a 'lack of information' from the company surrounding the medium term outlook for the company .
The practical and relevant question to ask now though is where does the current share price of 90 pence stand in terms of fair value. .
Again lots of different ways of assessing this , the most credible ones being those acknowledging the cyclical nature of mining earnings .
I like to see if the share is under or over valued using Schillings Cape formula which is to calculate PE ratio using the 5 or ideally 10 year rolling average EPS and marching it against the current share price
Using this formula, Centamin has a PE ratio of about 11..which is low .. in fact the PE ratio of Centamin for the past 5 years has ranged from 9 to 25 with an average of 18.
Likewise EPS has been in the range of 6 and 19 cents ( 4 to 14 pence with an average of 8 pence ..
So if you multiply the average 8 pence per share by the average PE ratio of 18 you get approx £1.45.
What this means is that based on the previous 5 years results £1.45 would be an equilibrium price to pay for the share That doesn't mean it's worth that now , but with an estimated EPS of 10 cents this year (7.25 pence) you might expect a share price of around £1.30, hence me waiting for around £1.35 to exit
The question remains why is the share price so low then and I can't come up with any better explanation than the reluctance of the market to forgive the company for the disappointment of the reduced levels of production
I will write another post highlighting another metric which suggests the level to which the current share price is undervalued ..
I am not sure where Boris gets his credibility from, which I presume is what attracts voters to vote for him. Comes across
as complete buffoon.
buffoon /b?'fu?n/
noun
"a ridiculous but amusing person; a clown."
whereas git, is a bit soft..
"an unpleasant or contemptible person."
although would undoubtedly have strong odours of a git ..perhaps he is a buffit, or a giffoon
Our buffoons down under are arguing amongst themselves as to who we should buy 8 submarines from, to make us self sufficent in defending 25,000 kilomers of coast line LOL. [About one sub every 3,000+ kms] IN so doing they have caused high anxiety amongst most of our Asian neighbours, again angered our chief trading partner (China), insulted the French who have in turn spat the dummy and pulled their well padded amabassador back to the Sienne, and incurred another mountain range of debt for the next generations.
The good news down here is that Sydney has won the gold medal for the most locked down city, heading for 260 days of lockdown [not sure why they dont go for the full year?]
Last week, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg agreed it might be a good idea to conduct a review of the Reserve Bank, given it had consistently failed to meet its key inflation and wages targets for the past five years, although he admitted it had performed "very well through this crisis"...by piling up debt and facilitating future tax for the next few generations to the max...but thats what the central banks do, after all its other peoples money.
Must keep a sense of humour, the alternative hurts too much
have a great week, and may the those in power be kind to the underlings
the gnome
During my long career I came across numerous different ways of valuing a company. The main ones , and the corresponding value for Centamin were
1. Net asset value on Balance sheet ..i.e. it's book value , which for Centamin would be £965m (£0.85 per share )
2. It's Market Value ..which for Centamin is £1.04bn or £0.9 per share
If some here got the impression I was talking about green initiatives like environmental footprint stuff I wasn't - I was referring to enterprise value (market cap). But I do like the conversations that have ensued.
Reading the debates I think both sides have valid points to make.
Based on my experience in Canada I don't think anyone argues for a world content with choking itself to death on fossil fuel emissions. But too often the media ignores (and sometimes demonizes) the companies that supply the energy needs of today.
As I watched that BBC video of the endurance swimmer navigating the Greenland iceberg laden waterways to raise awareness of climate change I couldn't help but think - he most likely flew on a jet to get there - not to mention the petrol powered dingy that shuttled him around for the video shoot. The list goes on and on.
Point is in our quest to free the planet of emissions we must do so in a way that acknowledges our individual contributions to emissions. The oil companies would not have any customers to burn their products unless we the consumer kept up the healthy demand by our lifestyle choices.
But getting back to Centamin I am proud of their efforts to replace diesel use with solar. However it did take much too long (four years now going on five) to implement.
Therefore I'd be very impressed if our new CEO would show real leadership and commitment to ESG by outlining a SOLAR EXPANSION plan today - instead of waiting another four years to replace the remaining diesel generators in use.
And this git told us our gas bills would be reduced if we voted for Brexit.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1218703/boris-promises-cheaper-household-gas-bills-if-brits-back-brexit/
Thanks for a breath of fresh air and a sensible conclusion on this issue.
The UK may well lead the world on suppression of green house gasses but it is an irrelevancy of minor relevance on a global scale against the major contributors , China , Russia , India and the good old USA.
I will take this more seriously going forward positively when Greta from Sweden stands in Beijing or Red Square or Mumbai preaching her propaganda as to what is needed. Isn't going to happen is it? Ever!!! So why should we have a situation where the lights will go out when renewables cannot cope with demand here when China is opening up fossil fuel power stations on an enormous programme. Russia is pumping gas and oil to a dependant EU and Mumbai is negotiating the most
massive oil and gas deals with off shore providers in the Indian Ocean collective. to be real the populous decide governments and not one can stand in the way of heating , cooling or electricity grid continuance. Very sad that this may be.
Bob
Green energy especially cars will no longer cheaper to run.
You electricity bill charging those batteries will soon prove that.
The only good option is hybrid unless on a long journey you enjoy extended charging breaks.
Lovely on a motorway service station.
Or go back to horse and carriage. :-)
I agree Mine check ..it won't be a big bang effect like a light switch on and off motion between..fossil fuel / green energy .it will likely need to be a gradual transformation
What it does do though , is to create huge opportunities within the green energy sector ..one such massive opportunity is electric powered vehicles..we have a level playing field for this at the moment . Can the UK grasp the nettle and take the lead in it .somehow I suspect not ...I wouldn't mind betting that Germany does though ....
Cowichan ...thanks for your intervention in setting the record straight. That was very helpful .
I have read by the way that under future licences the share of profit going to the Egyptian Government is going to be reduced to 25% I think , in a bid to encourage other mining companies to enter the region .. They recognised that the current 50% share was discouraging other mining companies from operating there which defeated the purpose of increasing their revenue receipts.
Goldgnome. For some reason I can't actually initiate a thread myself ..do you have to be a premium member ?
Yes if you could start a thread to pool the questions that people have that will be great .
It will also be useful for people to provide some background thoughts behind their questions .
Thanks for the contact email . I had been sending texts to the mobile number listed
A very good question, astronut.
'The longer the base, the higher in space.' Certain markets can do nothing for years. No one is interested in them. 'You've bought what? You muppet!'Then, they begin to behave like Uranium is now. The gold market is another classic case and absolutely full of emotion, like no other.
'The higher something climbs, the further it will eventually fall. And vice versa.' The further the gold miners fall, the longer and steeper will be their climb. The catapult effect. Opposite is the case for tech stocks when it bursts.
'To be all in, is to be boxed in.' Even if you think an investment is a 100% certainty, do not throw the kitchen sink at it. People lie!
'For long-term investing, drip feed your money into an investment that has become cheap.' Obviously, find out why it is cheap!
'Recognize the value of compounding in your investment.' Re-investing dividends and having small additions when prices are low will build up your wealth, on average. This is what has made most company share schemes so good over the last 40 years. Remember, though, that nothing lasts forever.
'Everyone makes lots of money in the stock market.' I think I'm correct in saying that 95% of traders lose money overall.
'Bull markets do everything in their power to kick you off.' Don't they, just.
'If in trouble, if in doubt, get the Tunnocks' teacakes out.' I've been there before.
And finally: Badgers love plums, and Mr Badger and friends have done very well from me this year. Their favourite variety is Czar, by a unanimous vote. They'll be getting windfall apples next.
I don’t mean to be critical MrT because you are an admirable source of knowledge. But on this I think you’re on a crusade borne of emotion rather than logic.
In the real world, market prices of electricity and gas are rocketing. This is at least in part due to the premature closure of coal and gas fired stations, the failure to invest in nuclear, and an over-reliance on intermittent renewables. In the real world, more real people will face fuel poverty as a result. Nobody likes fuel poverty, and it won’t be long before they’ll lose their enthusiasm for ‘green’ energy.
UK world leading virtue signalling is all very lovely, but the world needs fossil fuels for the next few decades, and without continued exploration then oil, coal and gas prices will continue to rise.
Fossil fuel explorers will continue to raise money from elsewhere, and the UK finance sector will be the poorer for it.
Too much fear-mongering and hyperbolic shouting leads to bad policy. We’re already starting to see the problems with UK energy supply (and no it isn’t Russia’s fault). Gestures do not change reality. Fossil fuels will be needed for decades.
Positive Money is rallying MPs to call on the Bank of England to end fossil finance by signing an open letter. The Bank of England has the power to regulate - ie stop = risky fossil fuel lending by banks, and we believe it should step up to the plate before the UN COP26 climate summit in Glasgow in November.
If hundreds of our MPs sign the letter to the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, together we can push him to take urgent action to tackle the climate crisis before the UK hosts COP26 in a few weeks’ time.
https://positivemoney.org/end-fossil-finance/?link_id=4&can_id=7912b55e72d6174409e36b7a8226a78d&source=email-cop26-is-coming-tell-your-mp-to-end-fossil-finance&email_referrer=email_1292243___subject_1708320&email_subject=is-your-mp-on-this-list
Please will you ask your MP to add their name to the letter before the end of September? There’s some ready-made text for you to edit or simply send in the email below, so all you need to do is sign your name and hit the button. (43 MPs have already added their names. You can check to see if your name is one of them by scrolling to the bottom of the letter here)
[1] COP26 is the big UN climate conference that happens once every five years. This year the UK is hosting it in Glasgow from 6th November:
https://ukcop26.org/uk-presidency/what-is-a-cop/
Rainforest Action Network - Banking on Climate Chaos:
https://www.ran.org/bankingonclimatechaos2021/
[2] See the letter and list of current signatories here:
https://positivemoney.org/2021/09/lawmakers-urge-bank-of-england-to-regulate-fossil-finance/
[3] Positive Money Blog - Big win: New Green Mandate for the Bank of England:
https://positivemoney.org/2021/03/big-win-new-green-mandate-for-the-bank-of-england/
[4] Positive Money Blog - Surprise for Sunak:
https://positivemoney.org/2021/02/surprise-for-sunak-60000-demand-climate-action-on-frontpage-of-his-local-paper/
Hi Don,
Your enthusiasm and unfaltering work in your quest of making Centamin the Company it should be does you great credit and indeed all share holders great service.
Due to other what I believe to be more important issues I no longer have the enthusiasm or energy for such exercises, most probably due to so many years of can kicking, broken promises, management incompetence and an Egyptian legal system that is run along the lines of the maddest of mad hatters tea parties I
Also after recent events I feel very optimistic that Martin Horgans integrity, past professional experience ,determination and his strategy will enable Sukari to deliver its full potential on a sustainable basis whilst restoring market confidence in Centamin tho company, it will just take time!
Unfortunately It's those crooks in the FED and our corrupt City of London who have the ultimate control of precious metals prices on which Centamins profitability is so dependent.
So for the people like you I hope Centamin does recover, although for others that just hop aboard in the hope of a free ride for a quick profit it's become a bit of a steep learning curve and they must make their choices, because as long term holders know Centamin is a contrarian investment say the least and trying to predict what happens in Egypt is like trying to predict which lie Boris is going to tell next!
Out of ignorance,selfishness and sheer stupidity the UK and indeed other countries rather than thinking and behaving like 21st century world citizens are are reverting back to 18th century inward thinking nationalism by electing self serving political leaders who lack the decency, integrity, the will, not to mention the capability to come together and really tackle the causes of so much suffering , racism ,inequality and indeed most importantly of the destruction of our planet.
Instead the world's political leaders waste astronomical amounts of money and contribute to global warming by gathering together at international jollies where they pontificate on issue's that don't really understand or even care about, but nevertheless make empty promises of taking the action that is needed now a decade or two down the road in order that they can retain their comfy seat on the political gravy train for the present until they alight to take their next first class seat on the private sector gravy train in the future!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/av/swimming/58522071
https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/58169330
Just noticed Cey is at the top of the charts on the IC list of Ftse all-share price movement over the last 12 months. Unfortunately it’s the biggest faller list! As a novice investor, I read that debasement of fiat currencies in conjunction with stagflation ought to lift the gold price but I also read that the market is completely rigged. For those of you with years of investor experience and observation, what have you figured out?