Utilico Insights - Jacqueline Broers assesses why Vietnam could be the darling of Asia for investors. Watch the full video here.
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Previous presidents have announced in a run up to elections how they will control government spending and debt but all of them after they get into the White House change their agenda. The question is why? And the answer has to be the Swamp. And the US military and their family are the biggest and loudest members of the swamp. Trump told us he was going to drain the Swamp... and his increasing military spending on new weaponry etc was his first job because he knew the military were a powerful lobby. He bought them off. But not only did the military demand more but he did not realise how wide & deep the swamp is. He told us he was independently wealthy. He was mistaken. He owes money to another powerful member of the Swamp the Banks! Whereas a single individual he may have been able to withstand an attack on his/her assets by the Swamp Trump has a family used to the good life! But now and again he comes out with a quip. He wanted Troops out of Syria and Iraq. But they are still there. When asked why he said Oil, he said ''I love oil'' and strangely that got no exposure and so no angry blow back from the greenies? But an important message he also got out that was again all but not reported was this in 2018. “As of a couple of months ago, we have spent $7 trillion in the Middle East. Seven trillion dollars. What a mistake. But it is what is,” Trump said Monday at a White House meeting on with officials and lawmakers on infrastructure. “”
“Think about it: As of a couple of months ago, $7 trillion in the Middle East and the Middle East is far worse now than it was 17 years ago when they went in and not so intelligently, I have to say, went in. I’m being nice.'' 2/13/18 Newsweek The Saunders side of Trump. (Trump has always admitted to not being able to put his sentences out in the most intelligible fashion)
And we have a swamp of our own.
Yes many thanks goldgnome.
European stocks rose in premarket trading on Wednesday ahead of the United States Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision scheduled for later in the day with investors hoping the Fed will give signals on when it plans to start tapering its asset purchases.
The FTSE 100 climbed 0.37% at 7:37 am CET, the DAX increased by 0.22% at the same time and the CAC 40 added 0.34% at 7:20 am CET.
The euro and the pound were both flat against the dollar, going for 1.17240 and 1.36574, respectively, at 7:38 am CET.
Breaking the News / NP
Happy hump y’al
Hi Mr Gnome,
Thank you for posting the letter, incredible certainly evidence that the ordinary people have little idea of what takes place behind closed doors
Can you see a comparison here between the claimed productivity gains of the internet now, and the same productivity gains hailed during the internet bubble of 1999 ? The same arguments were put forward .
The current PE ratio of the S&P is 38...(Tessla's PE ratio is 349 !!).
The current S&P ratio is 90 % above the historical average pe ratio of 19.6
90% is approaching the all time peak of 132% reached at the height of the US bubble. !
The market will ultimately head for a crash , because at some point it will revert to the mean .
Of course , just because it's high , doesn't mean to say it can't get even higher , but that doesn't take anything away from the fact that the S&P is seriously over valued.
So time to avoid I would say , or if you remain invested then fasten your seatbelts is what I am saying to US market bulls.
It would be interesting to see the respective figures for the FTSE.
Gnome ..Wow ! Is my reaction to that letter . I had no idea that things had got so bad ... How did you get hold of the letter ? Is it in the public domain ?
No I haven't plotted the correlation of the price of gold with increases in debt ceilings ..presumably they rise in tandem as a safe haven ?
Yes, thanks CI. Its not so much the debt now, but the strategy going forward, and the ability to execute the strategy. It does appear to some tht the USA is so divided, that they are only marginally sort of Civil War. The Bernie Sanders coalition of the least able, is one case in point. On the other hand, productivty gains? Achived through the internet? What real productivity gain does Facebook drive? How many buy something advertised on Facebook? Who really knows?
Have you plotted the price of gold versus the debt ceiling hikes?
The latest letter is at
https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/136/Debt-Limit-Letter-to-Congress_20210908_FINAL-Pelosi.pdf
best
the Gnome
To put the US current year debt into perspective , their total national debt built up since records began only stands at US$ 19.3 trillion, this equates to 107 % of their GDP ..They are 13th highest on the list ... The highest is Japan with 227% ..triggered mainly by propping up the banks after their stock market crash back in 1992.
Incidentally the UK Stock indices is the same now as it was at the end of 1999...22 years ago..so no nominal capital growth ..just dividends
UK national debt is about 85 %. It is the 30th highest..
Surprising Russia is one of the lowest at around 25%
According to the report Egypt's Debt is just 9% although I don't believe those figures
https://twitter.com/lbmaexecutive/status/1440243554693963778
Now panellists share their views on challenges facing the industry, featuring Natascha Viljoen (Anglo American Platinum), Martin Horgan (Centamin), Mark Bristow (Barrick Gold Corporation), & Paul Fisher (LBMA) moderated by Roger Baxter (Minerals Council South Africa) #LBMA2021
---------------------->>>
My Thoughts:
Wonder if Horgan & Bristow had time to discuss Egypt...
I think the short term optimism might be in anticipation of the forthcoming geology event . Let's hope it's not a damp squid .or the share price will follow it .
Yellen has argued that the US Congress had raised or suspended the country’s debt ceiling about 80 times since 1960, and must do so again! and why not, its the only ting they can do!?
Even though the US government is now only weeks away from defaulting on its debt for the first time – which would, as Yellen warned, probably trigger a meltdown in financial markets – investors have been remarkably calm.
Obviously, yields on long-term US bonds would rise if investors were forced to factor in some default risk.
But even a drawn-out battle over the debt ceiling could lead to another downgrade of the US credit rating, which would also probably push US bond yields higher.
Because the US government is running such massive budget deficits, a spike in borrowing costs – either from an actual default or from a protracted fight over the debt ceiling – will add to its debt servicing costs.
The US budget deficit is expected to swell to $US3 trillion in fiscal 2021 – or roughly 13.4 per cent of GDP – as a result of the stimulus measures Washington adopted to soften the economic impact of the pandemic.
And people think there is a rational basis for gold price in terms of US$ (any $ in fact) is going to go down?
US Congress is so divided and so partisan that rationality doesn’t prevail, and thats been going on for sometime now. No sign of change. No reason to be confident it will change.
And coming up ... Bernie Sanders’s $3.5 Trillion Budget Bonanza
Democrats want free everything with no accountability. Higher taxes will follow, and why not? whats the choice?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/bernie-sanders-budget-spending-taxes-trillion-11628547479
good luck to us all!
best
the gnome
Sorry my original post was too long , I will finish it here .
The other question that I didn't pose but which would emerge naturally from the ten year plan is what is the boards intentions regarding the $300 million cash war chest ...they are portraying it as a badge of honour it isn't ...the company only has a capital base of $1 billion and $300 million or 30% of that remains sat idly in a bank earning zero interest .. it could be put to better use . I am presuming its future use will be identified within the 10 year plan . A small overdraft wouldn't be a disaster if it was to fund future growth
One option for example , could be a decision to buy back some of its shares ...$300 million at the current share price (90 pence ) would enable it to buy back about 20% of its share capital base. This will certainly boost a short term growth in EPS , but it might also signal to the market (rightly or wrongly ) that the company was winding down its operations which would be unwise
Going back to my original point which was the future targeted production levels , This in my view, is the most important question of them all , because it determine everything that follows , but in order to answer it , they need to have a clear strategy for achieving it ..i.e. what proportion of future production will come from the optimal utilisation of their current 3 km footprint surrounding the Sukari operations , and how much beyond that, but within the surrounding larger footprint of their current licence , plus a strategy for the new footprint in the areas covered by the recent granting of new exploration licences
.
For the above reasons I would want to see their future production targets analysed between these separate segments .
I think that will be enough to be getting on with .
I can almost visualise their response...sorry we can't answer that because it's commercially sensitive information, and in a way it is ..but it will send a clear signal to the board that they have their work cut out to satisfy retail investors that they know what they are doing.
It looks really bleak for CEY. Either a great opportunity to buy or wonderful opportunity to short?
Thanks Mr T for this opportunity to father and collect all questions people have of the board .
I only have 3 questions which I sent in to the Board last week .
Goldgnome helpfully posted an email link which I will use to send the questions via email tomorrow .
My 3 questions were , which are all related to their ten year plan. (.they will certainly have one if they comply with standard practices of board requirements )
1. Future ambitions for growth.
As all as shareholders know is that they reset (reduced) production levels to between 400-450,000 ounces per year for the next 3 years. ..
What are their ambitions for years 4-10 of the plan regarding annual production levels ..are they planning to grow, remain the same or decline ..
Whenever I was a Finance Director prior to retirement, this was always my first question from day 1. I was always prepared for a fight with the operations director who wanted to keep his or her targets as low as possible to protect their survival .. the worst thing they could do was to make bold claims about what they could achieve ..my job was to press then on it and enlist the support of the CEO to do it.
Remember , my first comment on this board was that Centamin wasn't a growth company ..this will be their opportunity to prove me wrong ...
My approach would be to press for a doubling of current production levels from year 6..how they were going to achieve that would be up to them , but in my experience , once people are set a target , their focus becomes on achieving it. The other members of the board would join in the pressure that me and the CEO would exert. I haven't seen one statement identifying their what their future ambitions are .
2. The second question which would be thrown at their FD is, based on the productions levels contained within the 10 year plan ....
( a ). What is the targeted AISC ...and resulting EPS....this is the ultimate determining factor in whether or not the company is seeking growth. When all costs are added in to the equation , exploration costs , admin, PR, risk and regulatory etc etc ..what is the resulting EPS. yes I know that mining is a cyclical business which is why I would use the ' CAPE ' formula which stands for cyclically adjusted price earnings ratio , but since they obviously can't predict the share price then just stick with earnings. This ratio is calculated on a rolling basis over a 5-7 year period ...obviously what you want to see is this number rising using a steady state 'real value' of gold prices averaged out of the year of the plan ...
It should also include 2 other scenarios of maybe 25% and 50% higher and lower than the current price .
3. The final question is dividend policy ..at the moment the policy is to pay out 30% of operating cash flows in dividends ..how will this policy change with regards to their production targets .
One other question that I would like answered but which I didn't ask , is what is their future inte
Good find . It makes you wonder doesn't it ...certainly a question to put before the board I think , if only to receive confirmation that there is no link regarding the passing up of a serious opportunity.
I am about to post the 3 questions that I put to the board ..I will send them by email tomorrow rather than by text to the mobile number listed on their website.
Person Of Interest #1
WAYNE KOSHMAN He is currently the founder and President of Red Sea Resources - an Egyptian based gold exploration company created in 2020. Red Sea Resources just won 5 exploration blocks in Egypt’s Eastern Desert (two of which are just below and just above Sukari.)
In addition to Wayne's Egypt 'business' he is a director with Altair Resources. Altair has just:
- signed a binding agreement for a 90% ownership and 10% Burkina Faso Government ownership for an open pit, 3 deposit, gold exploration project containing 1,388,120 oz of gold (Historic Estimate) at an average grade of 0.95 g/t (COG @ 0.5 g/t).
- The 3 deposits are located in the south west of the country and 35km from Centamin’s Konkera project of 3.1M oz.
- The project is located in the safest area of Burkina Faso, a mining friendly jurisdiction.
- Altair has commissioned a PEA report and completion is expected in December 2021.
- Conventional open pit mining expected in 2024.
- 387,596 m of drilling & 294,504 core samples completed from 3 deposits.
My Thoughts:
35km from Centamin's Konkera deposit seems inordinately close. Do these deposits fall into one or more of the concessions Centamin may have *relinquished* 2 years back (as I was told by IR)
If so it would have been under Andrew Pardey's watch... I will do more digging and report.
https://www.altairresources.com/the-burkina-faso-opportunity/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/wayne-koshman-77285a7b/?originalSubdomain=ca
https://twitter.com/DonLawson_/status/1440373374555803654
.@CentaminPlc this is what #CEY shareholders want to see - our $ used to develop & provide jobs in #BurkinaFaso - investment in PEOPLE passes the long-term shareholder 'rate-of-return hurdle test'
@gouvernementBF
@Buchanan_PR
@Schroders
@vaneck_eu
@HLInvest
@Vanguard_Group
The video link https://youtu.be/4NoeBQWxFhk
Hi Cowichan,
Both you and Andrew raise very pertinent points , lets hope Martin Horgan follows through with the promised actions to address them to the satisfaction of everyone concerned without delay!
https://twitter.com/CentaminPlc/status/1440341116927107078
As we continue to develop our #Sustainability Performance Framework we have updated our #ESG policies in line with industry good practice and launched a new dashboard capturing our annual ESG performance data
Download our ESG dashboard: http://loom.ly/zvyyNRE
#RGMPs #GRI #SASB
---------------------------->>>
https://twitter.com/DonLawson_/status/1440352339492171782
Long term shareholders are proud of Centamin's #ESG commitment
However, #CEY has been stuck with ONE #gold mine to manage - unlike many miners who've grown, live ESG & provide new jobs/value thru expansion
#CEY TALKS about growth & performance but in reality has yet to prove it
------------------------>>>>
My Thoughts:
'Continuing to develop a sustainability performance framework' sounds important.
I wish management would give equal effort in 'continuing to develop a gold production framework' AND articulate that message to the market and investors.
As Goldgnome recently pointed out, part of the reason - or perhaps the main reason - our share performance is so dismal relates to the fact Centamin doesn't have a strategy to promote what catches new investors attention first - and that is growth.
Mining will continue to be looked at by many as a dirty sector - some will not invest no matter what ESG changes are implemented. We dig up the land and leave what appears to be scars. Fine. But for those who do invest - like us - we still need management to articulate a concrete, achievable path to grow production.
A simple, obvious omission that needs fixing fast.
Good stuff Tibbs - we all need a laugh! And funny business aside - it's entirely true. ;-)
2m trades after-market tend to capture the attention.
Hedge Funds & Leverage Investments Funds
Sub Prime & Structured Investment Packages
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-oIMJMGd1Q
Investment Banker explains the reason for market turmoil.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9z70BKwfSUA
Why are Senior City Banker's paid so much?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MYw_hrGzaxQ
Hope we are out of the awful rut . . . haven't enjoyed it one bit.
Sorry posted too soon, typo's below, should read -
"but in the absence of anyone else starting a thread will at least serve the purpose for the time being"
Hi Mr Gnome,
I hope that you and everyone else get the answers to their questions, you will see that I have posted a thread on this forum now, depending on responses it may have to be relocated or changed in the future, but in yje adcence of antyone else sarting a thread will at least serve the purpose for the time being