Centamin PLC Share Chat (CEY)

Uncertainty abounds and not just in the good ol' UK.

Goldman Sachs, ... now expects a gold price of $1,425 over the next year.

...physical gold in exchange traded funds has risen to 71.9m ounces, close to the record high of 72m touched in May 2018.

“We haven’t seen flows like this since the first half of 2016 — when the gold market really took off,” ..... VanEck in New York.

China getting wobblier,, trade relations strained, embargoes...mountains of debt, (US with debt-to-GDP ratio looking v bad) interest rates probably not going to be a strong player ...

Definitely late in the cycle, although I am getting less sure about what constitutes a cycle ... the simple view is that fear is the dominant emotion.

Gold looking good ....and so is Alex de Minaur in the Oz Open Tennis ....

Could I suggest a good day for CEY shares?
best, the gnome

Europe higher in premarket after Brexit deal vote
European stocks rose in premarket trade on Wednesday following the historic defeat of British Prime Minister Theresa May's Withdrawal Agreement in Parliament. Lawmakers overwhelmingly rejected May's deal with Brussels, followed by opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn tabling a no-confidence vote in the government.

The DAX gained 0.36%, the CAC 40 jumped 0.42%, while the FTSE 100 added 0.10% before the opening bell on major European stock exchanges.

The euro was down 0.09% against the dollar at 8:07 am CET, buying 1.1402.

Breaking the News / JC

+ 0.22% + $2.97 1292.03

High of the day $1292.78

Former Goldcorp CEO chats about Newmont deal & exorbitant CEO pay

http://stream2.kitco.com/19_01_15_McEwen_liferay.mp4

Why all those tiny trades late in the da ,a list
of 3.4.5 Shares repeated several times , just before the bell ?

More sellers than buyers today, in expectation of gold coming back a bit, as I suggested last week. Then I thought Cey might pull back to 110 as gold failed to pierce 1300, and so came back a bit. Nothing has changed. For traders 120 was a good out, but for long term holders like most of us , it is just noise

Gold up but CEY tanking today. Looks like pre vote jitters to me. I see gold continuing its current rise but where do we see this SP tomorrow?

MM spanking Cey again this morning!

Anyone watch "The Big Short" sill available on BBC catch up, great film but the scamming still continues !

So not one oz of real gold is actually available from these shorts for delivery and yet these manipulators and scammers keep the price below $1300 by selling paper!

Ghttps://www.bullionvault.com/gold-price-chart.do#old Prices 'Supported' by Geopolitics But 'Short-Selling' Blocks $1300
Monday, 1/14/2019 14:44
GOLD PRICES dropped $6 to erase an overnight rise at the start of US trading on Monday, moving back to last week's finish of $1290 per ounce as world stock markets fell even as major government bond yields slipped once more.

"The geopolitical risks have started to induce some safe-haven buying," reckon analysts at Australasian bank ANZ, "[because] investors are becoming increasingly worried about the Brexit negotiations. At the same time, there appears no end in sight for the US government shutdown."

"The on-going US government shutdown, Brexit jitters and trade concerns are all supportive for the yellow metal," agrees a trading note from Swiss refiners and finance group MKS Pamp, "and we are likely to see any downside moves bought into to restrict further declines."

But that by itself won't be enough to push gold prices higher, MKS goes on, saying that "the metal currently sits firmly within the middle of the $1280-1300 range and it is difficult to see a catalyst for a break-out over the near term"

"There is a key resistance between $1290 and $1310," says spead-betting bookmaker CMC.

"Gold will need to do substantial work to rise above this level as generally we see traders shorting into it."

Short-selling of Comex gold futures and options by hedge funds and other money managers reached record levels last October, but positioning data from US regulators has now not been available since end-December thanks to the partial shutdown of US government agencies in the spat between President Trump and Democrat lawmakers over his Mexico wall budget demand.

Share holders generally feel that the directors quire their free shares for far too little effort, so I sent the post below to Centamin 29/03/2018.

We all know what happened not so very long after in 2018!

Interesting post by Eeza on the ADVFN Board ref a shareholder kick back at the AGM on Centamin's remuneration:

https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/centamin-egypt-CEY/share-chat

Reply from Centamin

Please see the link below to our website referencing Dividend Information. Here you can find the fx currency conversion and date - The currency conversion rate for those electing to receive Sterling will be based on the foreign currency exchange rates on 27 March 2018 which is 1.4144.

http://www.centamin.com/investors/shareholder-services/dividend-information

With regards to the reference to our AGM, I have attached our RNS AGM Results published following the completion of the AGM. In short our Remuneration Policy was voted down. This is an advisory vote and not legally binding. That being said it was disappointing given we actively engage with our shareholder on the investment side and the stewardship/corporate governance side to understand their feedback and expectations for the Company. That being said, the reasons for the advisory vote down were not around quantum but rather structure of the policy. We are already in active engagement with sophisticated Remuneration advisors to review and evolve where appropriate our policy.

:

Europe rises in premarket ahead of Brexit deal vote
European stocks rose in premarket trade on Tuesday as investors anticipate the crucial meaningful vote on the Brexit withdrawal deal scheduled for later today. As it stands at the moment, the agreement negotiated by the Prime Minister Theresa May has little chances of securing MPs approval, considering the opposition, even from within May's own Conservative Party, to the contentious Irish backstop clause. If May loses the Parliament vote, she has three days to outline what she plans to do next in the process of the country's departure from the EU. It was reported earlier that May will push for a second Brexit vote if her deal fails in the Parliament.

The FTSE 100 traded 0.61% in the positive territory before the opening bell, while the DAX rose 0.82% at the same time. Meanwhile, in Paris, the CAC 40 rose 0.68% in premarket trading. The euro was up 0.06% against the dollar to sell for 1.1475 at 8:11 am CET, while the pound increased 0.21% versus the US currency to go for 1.2897 at the same time.

Breaking the News / FH

Gold -0.10% -1.23 1290.43
high of the day $1293.43

Crude currently + 0.81% + 0.48 $58.90
High of the day $59.90

All excellent points GoldGnome, in hindsight was Josef really a good choice for chairman, son's or relatives that acquire or inherit theirv positions in the family business hierarchy are not always the best choice as all too often they don't take their new responsibilities seriously ,have far too little commitment, soon get bored and want to go off and do their own thing, whether they are good at it or not!
Share holders were told "Josef was taking much more of a back seat nowadays", bit of an understatement in hindsight!
Perhaps neare reality would have been "Josef has put his feet upon the back seat and cares not a jot about Centamin even though the wheel is about to fall off with nobody at the reins because he is far too occupied with other interests
Shareholders were told that "Josef would be making a seamless handing over of the reins to the new chairman?
So just who was this new chairman, did they ever exist?
Handing over the reins indeed, seems more like a case of chucking away the reins with Mr Dead in the driving seat!
So what now, that Josef has condescend to take up the reins once again?
Will he now take his role seriously or will he still be hankering to play over at AIC or elsewhere?

Hi Rebess,
If you recall there was all sorts of speculation as to the reason for Josef's share selling in 2017, however shortly after it became apparent that he was involved in this company.

Perhaps Josef has acquired far too many Centamain shares far too easily, far too early and at far too little personal expense so he never really appreciated them or took them as seriously as he should have done.

Your final sentence says it all.

Maybe I'm alone on this but I don't see the Goldcorp shareholders any further ahead with this deal.

The average share price for Goldcorp in 2018 was around $16.00 so despite its BIG plans of growing production slashing AISC etc aka 20/20/20 the investor wasn't buying (current price being a whopping $13.50ish). This is just the latest example of management selling out because they feared being unable to deliver on promises.

Randgold. Goldcorp. Who will be next? I am starting to have a new appreciation for the habit of Egyptian court cases dragging on indefinitely because for now it's a solid deterrent working in our favor.

Very fair comments GoldGnome!

I do agree with your words goldgnome, the issues that tales CEY is the court case that was shelved without a concrete solution. In fact (IMHO) is the Egyptian government are between 2 parties and can't solve it easily, (Investors and the Egyptian ignorance of foreign minor investments. Unfortunately when I hear even some media shows as they are suppose to be educated they talk about mining saying why foreigner companies come here and steal our gold and this is the major mentality of ignorant Egyptians. While Egyptians people themselves steal and sell their incident treasures discreetly / privately to foreign countries.

It is about time the Government of EGYPT to resolve those court cases ASAP and copy the rest of the world system. We need a huge luck with the stony age of the Egyptian government mentalities.

Any gold mining produce over 450K ounces they are over US$5 especially CEY has a long term production for years.

GLTA,
Dan

I agree with you gnome.
Centamin have the advantage in Egypt.
They are streets ahead ,and like you I have commented before ,the confidence between the company and government comes from many years of cooperation. .
The opportunities there are immense.

Interesting question Rebess.

I think the assett CEY has in Egypt is first class, and there is considerable upside. They have built excellent infrastructure and contacts and won a lot of support and respect from the govt. Focussing on this and surrounds and other exploration and mining in Egypt makes sense, at least from a technical sense. In addition it appears to me they have been very careful and astute in their bilding of a social liscense to operate in Egypt.

When they have tried to invest outside of this, their judgement has been demonstrably poor, and hence this would suggest they should focus on their knitting, ...on what they do and know best, learn from their mistakes (they do not have the skill set to expand internationally within the current board and mngt, despite what they think of themselves and what they pay themselves) and deliver consistent sustainable perfromance.

Josefs investments speak for themselves....Indiana Resources..hmmm??? (etc). Life is too short. Josef should consider what his knowledge and skill base is very carefully...One swallow does not a summer make...

best

the goldgnome, ... who sometimes turns red and is now heading for the Australian Open Tennis ....

Hi nome - From your postings you appear to have professional knowledge/experience of the industry. - In your opinion, do you not feel that Centamin is exposed somewhat in just having a one-mine operation?

I think you have your answer in 20 20 20
Cey doesn’t predict 20% rise in production
Cey doesn’t predict 20% fall in aisc
Cey doesn’t predict 20% increase in reserves
Plus Cey has the court case preventing a takeover
Share prices look forward
I thought Cey was fairly valued around a pound with gold in the lower 1200’s
I think Cey is fairly valued now with the current gold price
Gold is finding it very hard to break through 1300, if it doesn’t shortly it is likely to retreat a bit taking the cey price back to 110 or further
So let’s hope very much that it manages soon as it is not production, aisc etc that will save us as they are readily static, but the gold price. Imho

i woudn't be spending too much time or money on following josefs new investment here....far better things to invest in....

best
the gnome

Goldcorp forecast production for 2018 was 2.5million. If you take CEY forecast for 2019 as 555k ounces then Goldcorp's is 4.5x CEY All else being equal (which of course it is not) that would put a value on CEY of $10billion / 4.5 = $2 billion.

Current CEY market cap is £1.4Bn which with the cable at 1.285 equates to $1.8bn. That would therefore suggest 11% upside to CEY share price which means fair value for CEY is therefore £1.35.

Obviously the above ignores the different AISC, debt (we have none), future growth, political risk ... all would need to be factored in to get the real comparison.

PSB below for more on Goldcorp from 2018 forecast if you want to try and do that.

Goldcorp expects to produce 2.5 million ounces (+/- 5%) of gold in 2018, in line with previous guidance; AISC are expected to decline further to approximately $800 per ounce (+/- 5%) as the Company continues to realize savings from its program targeting $250 million of annual sustainable efficiencies.

The Company's 20/20/20 plan remains unchanged. As previously guided, gold production is expected to increase 20% to 3 million ounces by 2021. AISC are expected to decrease by 20% to approximately $700 per ounce over the same period driven by increased gold production and the ongoing focus on cost efficiencies and productivity improvements. Building on the successful conversion of 4.7 million ounces of gold into reserves at the Century project in 2017, gold reserves are expected to increase by 20% to 60 million ounces by 2021 supported by the exploration potential and ongoing programs at Coffee, Norte Abierto (formerly Cerro Casale/Caspiche), Cerro Negro and Pueblo Viejo.