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Interesting Tony.
But like the other "Experts ?" Speculation.
The market hangs on the FED speak, like a child on a dark stormy Halloween night hangs on to its parents hand.
Who do you believe when each fresh news item sends the market into panic.,
Checked my bank account today. Still no Brexit dividend.
Anyone else still waiting on theirs?
https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/are-we-headed-for-recession-signposts-and-realism
Most long term holders will agree that Martin Horgan has achieved great deal in a relatively short time , although admittedly it may not be fast enough for some relatively new holders who prefer to be in and out of stocks more quickly.
Possibly some of the detail Decembers announcement may not please everyone, that is to be expected , although it may exceed expectations, who really knows at this stage , however I remain very optimistic for the future.
https://www.asktraders.com/analysis/centamin-shares-are-falling-despite-q3-results/
The article just repeats what we already know that the POG affects Centamins profits , I am certain that we aware all aware of that by now, so pretty pointless,
How much does the author know about the engineering and geological issues involved in running successful gold mine?
What do they know about doing business in Egypt or the legal system in Eygpt
Have they ever visited Sukari?
What gold mining experience does the author have, most probably very little or none at all , they apply the same analytical methods to pub chain's, super,markers or jelly bean production.
This outfit is just about getting people hooked on trading, even worse it promotes CFD trading on which it is estimated that between 71% - 80% 0f retail investors lose money on.
Centamin/Sukari is where it is simply because appropriate mining methods and practice were abandoned in favour of high grading in order to impress the market with impressive guidance in the short term, Robbing Peter to Pay Paul, although as we are now aware this glossing over was unsustainable and it's now time to "Pay the Ferryman!"
The process which Sukari is going through now is the only waty to access higher grades safely and safeguard future production which may or may not exceed the exaggerated claims of the previous management but the guidance will be more constant and reliable and the AISC should be brought bacjk far more rspectable levels or even to industry syandard lows.
Post close
Twitter: gold's best periodic returns have occurred when gold and nominal rates move higher in tandem. This has been true since at least the early 1970's. It's gold's way of signaling that the Fed is way behind the curve in managing inflation.
Notice gold's been rising even with 10-yr climbing too (to 1.67%). 10yr/gold so-called "correlation" was always baloney. Negative real rates & gold are the true key correlation & with suppressed inter. rates &PERSISTENT inflation, gold's going a lot higher
There was nothing wrong with the article. The concern on gold was correct, although I would have said it WAS due to gold price/sentiment on gold price obviously, all other PMs have suffered on this, plus rising costs potential which the POLY CEO openly communicated adding to their lacklustre performance which is now coming back a bit.
Horgan has not said anything concrete on Sukari other than meeting revised forecasts etc which has been positive, most people have listened to every broadcast, and read all the information out there.
If Sukari is not good news on 1st December, it will also throw into question the capability with future projects where so far have been progressing well with lots of detail there.
I maintain what I said yesterday.
"Sukari in oct2020 battered the volume produced - before this it was 510k to 525k per annum then it was reset to 400-430k in oct2020 post this. Good news is slightly ahead of schedule in last RNS staying 415k most likely, so for sure stabilised and no worse since. The reason why I bang on about 1st Dec is this when they will comment on Sukari - will this once again be producing more and increase since Oct2020 projections? Fundamental as we’re still seem as single source and if this is positive along with all the new potentials this year- should be good."
My question for you Mr T, is the big question on expectation of will come out on 1st December:
Is your interpretation of Horgan's verbal comments, written comments that being ahead of schedule that Sukari will remain at current levels of production for many years and how many years with minor improvements and no more issues like Oct2020, or is that Sukari will return to 500k plus, the previous baseline, and what is the timeline for this?
Great post Mrtibbles.
I agree and am grateful to you for the content.
Thank you.
This article is pointless and illustrates the lack of understanding that some journalists have about Sukari and Centamin.
If this journalist had taken the trouble to do some research they would realise the reasons why the share price is where it is at present and that the Sukari operations are performing exactly to Martin Horgan's recovery plan, in fact things are ahead schedule!
I appreciate that some more recent holders are frustrated with lack of upward movement of the share price, but this is to be expected due to the increased AISC whilst the open pit remedial work takes place.
It's quite simple really there is no quick or magical fix to the open pit, the work has to be carried out properly to minimise any risk to the work force and mitigate future production risk, this has been fully explained by Martin Horgan in the two previous presentations and quarterly reports for anyone who has taken the trouble to listen to the presentations or taken the trouble to read the reports
So those hoping for a sudden upsurge in share price certainly before the remedial works are completed are most likely to remain frustrated for a while longer and so may possibly want to consider other alternative investments that may be more suited to their more usual/preferred trading/investment strategy.
Over the past decade have been many traders that have popped in hoping to be able to predict the Centamin share price and make whatever percent by using their usual trading charts and methodology, most have been disappointed/disillusioned and then moved onto other stocks and forums.
As some of our mining professionals have explained over the years mining is notoriously unpredictable and in addition Centamin has always been a contrarian investment in a contrarian country which amplifies the unpredictability!
I remain very optimistic that the next report won't disappoint but confirm that the turnaround is indeed progressing as predicted, possibly even ahead of schedule and there may even be some news on other developments in Eygpt and elsewhere that will reassure share holders and the market.
I don't see any threat to the present dividend policy,quite the contrary.
If Basel 3 was'nt going to have a positive effect on the POG then central banks wouldn't be accumulating so much gold under the radar on the wholesale markets and their trading rooms wouldn't be desperately trying to unwind Comex positions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WSMiH2k8MNc&list=PLE1y8hGSqr8ar1gKUdfqFDK5ygLIlrdmz&index=1
Is the Covid crisis over, no certainly not iin many countries and it's getting worse in the UK where restrictions may have to be reintroduced according to SAGE,
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59011321
Are the UK/USA economies improving, not apparent for or the ordinary people.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58998860
Precious metals are at an interesting juncture. We can only go on Comex figures, representing perhaps 10% of total non-option derivatives. But if they are any guide, the firmer undertone, lowish volumes for gold and no increase in open interest signal classic bear squeeze conditions — the bears being predominantly the Swaps, three-quarters of which are bullion bank trading desks. These traders are running out of time ahead of the Basel 3 deadline in London only eleven weeks away.
https://www.goldmoney.com/research/market-updates/market-report-gold-and-silver-advance
It's about time the sp gets a move on, looking forerd to next week and further gold increase, pitty my HUM has taken a hammering this week
Good to see- hopefully more will come.
Can I ask why you hold Sotolo? I am hopeful of good news on 1st Dec- it will most likely be my last gamble here.
Thanks Razor.
Yes Razors,they try to keep it down Fridays.
But earlier the US debt figure announced earlier of $2.77 Tillion plus with Bidens infrastructure plans temporarily on hold beats the record ,so looks rosy for gold ,remembering of course time is running out until Basel 3 final date ,end of December.
Good weekend all.
Strong Bullish sentiment in gold as Powell talks down inflation threat
https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-10-22/Strong-Bullish-sentiment-in-gold-as-Powell-talks-down-inflation-threat.html
Hello Xxxxxx
I seen your name on today’s “Xxxxxxx” and decided to try to contact you.
Would it be possible for you to cover Centamin as one of your company comments.
The last time they got a mention was on December 23rd 2020.
I’m sure you are aware they had trouble at their Sukari mine in Egypt which resulted in a fall in production but I believe the matter is under control with a new life of mine report due for release on December 1st.
Thank you for your kind help
Regards Xxxxx (Centamin share holder)
——————————-
I’ll post if and when she responds
Can’t hurt to try
I don’t expect good news Steve but I really hope gold will take off rather than sink, every time it threatens to secure itself above 1800 I get hopefully then when it fails again I see 1685 and downwards, gosh just wish we could make an assault on 1930 again, but as for the company I am expecting profits well down this year and a dividend cut as too late to be saved by gold this year, only imho and hoping for next year….
Yep as I thought overdone when I posted earlier- you get a lot of pumping and dumping / dumping and pumping when Powell speaks and a lesser amount (but still some) around key data from US which is around 13:30uk time and sometimes 12:30uk time for a brief while when clocks adjust around. I watch a couple of gold trading sites and people get caught out- and then get stuck again and get rinsed- I got burned on a cfd a while ago and not gone back in again- lesson learned.
Has recovered partially since it’s 4:30 price.
Currently $1797 + .78%
I see what you mean on the 1,000,000 after hours- it pretty much mirrors the price at the time. All I know is that institutional investors can trade just after normal FTSE hours for a period of time. Maybe someone else on this board can help clarify.
I don’t quite understand the details of this aspect- are they not hidden trades eg “no publicity tick box” or is that just naive ? As I say, I don’t understand this aspect
Steve Jones...what about broker manipulation with yet another £1 million buy and another just under £1 million just 5 minutes after the market has closed. This is simply ridiculous and gives a false impression of trading during hours.