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There is so much rivalry for the worst ever prediction
Irving Fisher, one of America’s greatest ever economists, said in October 1929 that he believed equities had reached a ‘permanently high plateau.’ Less than two weeks later, stocks plunged and didn’t reach the highs they fell from for 25 years.
‘Japan As Number One’ was released by Harvard social scientist Ezra Vogel back in 1979. It was not an unpopular view at the time that the United States economy would soon be surpassed by prosperous Japan
In December 2007, Goldman Sachs chief investment strategist Abby Joseph Cohen made a Fisher-like prediction of her own. She suggested the S&P 500 would hit 1,675 by the end of 2008, a climb of 14% — it actually ended below 900
Paul Samuelson, the first American to win the Nobel Prize in economics, said in 1961 that ‘the Soviet economy is proof that, contrary to what many sceptics had earlier believed, a socialist command economy can function and even thrive.'
In 2010, billionaire entrepreneur Richard Branson issued a warning that ‘the next five years will see us face another crunch — the oil crunch,’ predicting a severe supply shortage. Five years later, the price of oil was actually lower than it was then.
Former Fed chair Alan Greenspan warned in his 2007 book ‘The Age of Turbulence’ that the world might need double digit interest rates to control inflation in the near future. Rates have been near zero for the vast majority of the time since.
Joan Robinson, one of the 20th century’s most prominent Keynesian economists, visited the Koreas in 1964 and said ‘as the North continues to develop and the South to degenerate, soon or later the curtain of lies must surely begin to tear.Today, ... North Korea’s economy is an example of repressed backwardness
Joseph Cassano, who ran insurer AIG’s financial products division, had his own financial crisis howler. In August 2007, Cassano said he couldn’t see AIG ‘losing one dollar in any of those (credit derivative) transactions.’ AIG was bailed out in 2008.
Professor Ravi Batra wrote a book called ‘The Great Depression of 1990,’ predicting global turmoil. It was a New York Times number one bestseller in 1987, and Milton Friedman said he wouldn’t ‘touch (the book) with a ten foot pole. 1990 is more generally remembered as one of the beginning years of an extended global boom period
Former National Association of Realtors chief economist David Lereah published a book called ‘Why the Real Estate Boom Will Not Bust — And How You Can Profit from It’ early in 2006. It has not aged well.
Schiff foretold that Quantitative Easing (the unconventional monetary policy undertaken by the Fed between 2008 and 2014) would result in hyperinflation and the eventual destruction of the Dollar. Unfortunately for Schiff, the average inflation rate per year since the onset of QE has been 1.68%, slightly below the 2% target of the Fed. BUt bow he is on the money!?
good for a late night read, why pay
Markets dropping on futures in US and UK due to virus vaccine may not be as effective from a provider- whipsaw time I think.
Equities in Europe traded lower in the premarket on Tuesday ahead of the release of the reports on Germany's unemployment rate and the Eurozone's consumer prices. Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann will also give a speech on the present situation in the economy, currently marked by the newly found Omicron strain of COVID-19.
Earlier in the day, Germany reported its seven-day incidence rate, which calculates how many people per 100,000 are infected with coronavirus, reached its second-highest ever level.
The DAX declined by 2.09% at 7:11 am CET. At that moment, the FTSE 100 dropped by 1.73%. The CAC 40 decreased by 2.46%.
The euro went up by 0.28% against the dollar to sell for $1.13106 at 7:14 am CET. At the same time, the pound sterling stood flat against the greenback to go for $1.33084.
Breaking the News / JR
…add a few ounces to the score board.
Cowichan it would be a serious boost if Centamin announced new drill results for Sukari tomorrow week.
Snake and ladder, snake is our sins and repentance is our ladder, Boris went to mount Sinai to be return as Moses, and Royal Charles went to Egypt to adore a statue/Idol. Ultimate One above heavens is not indifferent whatever we do.
for the first time ever.
I didn't know much about these guys but after checking out their website I discovered 40% of their production is already from Burkina Faso.
--------------------------------------------------------->>>
SUPPORTING BURKINA FASO
All mines operated by Nordgold in Burkina Faso (the combined Bissa-Bouly and Taparko) are co-owned by Nordgold and the Government of Burkina Faso, which controls 10% of the operations. Since 2008, when Nordgold first started operating in the country, we have been Burkina Faso's reliable partner and a major contributor to the country’s economic and social development.
Nordgold grew into one of the largest gold miners operating in Burkina Faso in little over a decade. As we produce close to 40% of our total gold output in the country, we are committed to its economic and social development. Nordgold's investment in Burkina Faso has exceeded US$1 billion. Additionally, since 2009, Nordgold has contributed over US$400 million to the government in the form of taxes and royalties.
https://www.nordgold.com/operations/production/bissa/
<<<--------------------------------------------------------------------
Maybe Nord Gold was the buyer of Batie West?
It would be good to hear something from Centamin's management about it on the 8th cause we already know something has transpired - given the post by Burkina's Ministry of Mines a few weeks ago:
MINISTERS COUNCIL MINUTES FOR WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 3, 2021
C. MINISTRY OF ENERGY, MINES AND QUARRIES
The Council adopted two (02) decrees. ** / ++
The first decree appoints Mrs. Aminata OUEDRAOGO / SEMDE, Mle 54 661 J, Inspector of the Treasury, Administrator representing the State, under the Ministry of Economy, Finance and Development to the Board of Directors of the mining company KONKERA SA (note: this is Centamin's local company name/owner of the Batie West concession**), for a first term of three (03) years.
https://www.gouvernement.gov.bf/informations/actualites/details?tx_news_pi1%5Baction%5D=detail&tx_news_pi1%5Bcontroller%5D=News&tx_news_pi1%5Bnews%5D=664&cHash=eac01bf272c89e3dfe83b96c06a83f21
Hi Candid,
if only there were a reliable way of predicting the future, let alone the prices of anything, including gold, wouldn't we all be rich, never take a wrong foot,etc,etc.
However there is'nt is there, even with the sophisticated market charts and hedge fund algorithmic boxes so much of how things work out is down to chance, fate and to some ,extent the control the corrupt buggers (shadows) have over the levers behind the scenes the world over.
That chart is interesting, though I wouldn't put too much faith in it and my advice to anyone is stay away from CFD trading at all costs irrelevant of what any chart predicts because over time 75% of small traders lose far more than than they ever gain!
Be nice to have had a crystal ball that would have predicted that crack appearing in the open pit wall, but then the independent reports of 2015 & 2018 warned of the glossing over of the the true grade structure of Sukari, yet many of us chose instated to believe the assurances of Andrew Pardey that all was well and 550-600,000 oz year on year were going to be the new norm, because that's what we wanted to believe and in a perfect world that should have been the case!
But in reality the warnings that all was'nt well, that the low grades were being glossed over and even worse as a result the pen pit was'nt being cleared of waste were justified!
Oh is'nt hindsight great thing, or even having a CEO who is truthful!
So it come down to is having the integrity face the facts and to tell the truth, otherwise all the glossy predictions on the future output are meaningless, although even if the truth is told in all good faith and especially in precious metals mining there is always the unpredictable occurrences of fate!
I wouldn't waste too much time and effort trying to predict predict future guidance or place too much faith in the majority of analysts notes, what will be will be, although having a CEO with the professional ability to do what needs to be done and the integrity to face and deal with the facts as they are can only be good for the future prospects of Centamin and its share holders.
p.s.
If only the the UK electorate had access to that crystal ball I am certain that Brexit wouldn't have happened and certainly Boris wouldn't be prime minister, but unfortunately the masses chose to believe the crock of sh*t they were being told at the time because it suited them!
Candid
Go to their forecast chart but then click on the forecasts based on the 5, 10 & 25 year charts.
You will be a lot happier with those predictions :)
Hi Gnome
I always think Long Term Capital Management was the best at predicting the future.
Their team, which included a couple of Nobel laureates, said that conditions leading to a loss of 20% of their capital were so rare they would only occur once every 10,000 years (I may have got those numbers wrong, it is a long time since I read about them, but it was that level of stupidity).
We all remember what happened to LTCM :)
Thanks Gnome , puts things into perspective .. I like your " weapons of mass destruction " analogy
More like No Crimbo
The history of predicting future prices or events is an interesting area. The success rate is appalling.
J M Keynes 1929 " There will be no serious consequences in London from the Wall Street Slump"
RAND Corp, 1960's "a permanent lunar base will be established long before A.D. 2000.."
USA, 2001, "weapons of mass destruction..."
Paul Ehrlich, 1968, "In the 1970's the world will undergo famines - hundreds of millions of people will starve to death ...."
Then there are the more recent Covid predictions, say no more
You would wonder why people bother to try and make predictions? A: They get paid for it Next question is if the rate of success is so low, why do people pay other people to make predictions? A: Madness/social conditioning
James Glasson, 1999 "Dow 36,000" ...well we are nearly there!...so the argument goes that some of the predictions will be true, if you wait long enough?
When dealing with a market derived price mechanism (lets assume fair, fully informed etc), then the question is supply and demand
Gold supply is limited by diminishing exploration successes (been diminishing for decades and I predict it will get worse), and slow rate of bringing mines into operation..think 15+ years, more ESG, regulations, lacking attractive destination for speculative money (why bother with gold mining, get better returns on "the market")
Gold demand seems to be increasing, from central banks, ETF's
good luck in the future!
the gnome
Omricon is an anagram of moronic, which aptly sums up the situation.
I was researching if there was anything on average gold prices for the previous 6 months to get a handle on what the second half revenue is likely to be .
I couldn't find anything , but I discovered this website , which I have posted a link to
I don't know the credibility of the site , but there is a forecast gold price tab which doesn't look too promising .
I don't know how to read and make sense of technical analysis , but I wouldn't have drawn the same trajectory lines into the future that they have .
I am of the general opinion that these kinds of analysis and projections are akin to horoscopes in that you can read into them what you choose to, and that when the situation unfolds into something different to what the charts suggest , they just change the chart !
Mr T, I've still got a stack of Kruggerands my Grandad gave me years ago... for a rainy day :-)
I think it's pretty obvious that mankind's selfishness, greed and exploitation is responsible for most of the environmental damage to our planet.
I fail to see how a massively reduced human population could be anything other than a great help to preserving the planet.
Especially if the virus could wipe out most of the corrupt buggers that control some countries at present!
It's no good trying to control the spread by just inoculating those in the countries that can afford to pay for vaccines , the people in the poorer countries need vaccinating as well, otherwise we shall all be existing in masks and reoccurring lock downs.
Hi Canetoad,
No certainly not bearish on gold because according to a wholesale trader I know physical demand is still strong and there is an increasing lead time at refiners.
It seems from the evidence available to wholesalers that the POG is being held back by those who control the levers to allow the unwinding of paper positions prior to next year.
Bought back into my crypto, and some travel stocks (but with stop losses on the travel ones to protect against the virus Omni becoming more deadly) - although this is unlikely from current media.
On gold- so hard to predict- seems like it must stay above 1780 to prevent real damage. Markets bounced back overall, and crypto off the recent low, gold seems to be @@@@ all...
And yet the boom we got from inflation a couple of weeks ago which has gone, but inflation hasn't.
Gold is the hardest I can predict in ages....
It rose so well, but not a lot seems to make it stick, for now....
Wow, some crazy thoughts in this thread. Viruses aren't clever, and usually peter out as the mutations do as much harm to the virus as good. Look at what's happened in Japan recently. Their mutation has rendered the virus fairly innocuous. Please don't scare people if you don't really understand viruses. A massively reduced human population would lead to all sorts of new problems so be careful what you wish for...
@MrTibbles: what's your best guess for when those with the 'big levers' release them?
Are you bearish on gold?
It's interesting to se that Singapore bought so much earlier in the year. I am guessing that their purchase of 26.3MT was the primary reasom for the rise and hence the rise in CEY.
Regardless, the Chinese have admitted they have a viral research facility in Wuhan, so nobody seems to have asked the obvious question , what the hell were they doing researching and experimenting with a virus so deadly ? ( assuming of course that is what they were doing )
Thing is though , I like the Chinese ;. they have a far better menu option that the Indian one across the road..
Auson...you might just have hit the nail on the head ..am I right in thinking it's widely known that the virus escaped from a Chinese laboratory , rather than a local fish market in the coincidental same location as the laboratory ? I haven't seen any official publication or document concluding this ?
Would it be taking conspiracy theories to the limit to suggest it was a serious setback in the Chinese intention to use viral warfare in the future ?
Gold ain't going anywhere much until those with the biggest levers take the brakes off and that most probably wont be anytime soon!