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That is what I have been saying Cowichan in my earlier posts . Somebody posted on here that the FD looked solemn and uninspiring ..that is because he knows the score, I have been there, done that , and the words " proposing a capital restructuring to increase financial flexibility " is not good news believe me ...it can only point to a few things ..
...Either taking on debt , adding to old debt , taking on new debt or diluting shareholder equity via a new equity fundraise.
Face facts :
1. Cey might be able to extract a bit more gold from Sukari but it's at the margins , a new flagship asset should already have been identified...the previous management (s) I use that in the plural because they were all guilty of just sitting back and basking in the glory of their cash cow called Sukari, knowing that what followed Sukari wasn't their problem
2. Apart from Doropo ABC etc which only offer interim relief in the medium term , there is no " golden key" offering genuine long term growth .
3. They have to commence the process of finding a new Sukari from scratch , problem is there probably isn't another one of this size in the area where they are ...furthermore , they don't have the financial firepower needed to find one ..they have given the cash they needed back to shareholders in the form of past dividends .. not only that , they now have far bigger players each searching for the same ....They still have no alternative though , they will still have to explore , explore , explore which may or may not be fruitful ..think high risks and massive stakes.
Paying dividends from here will be reckless , indeed it could be argued that they should have stopped in 2016 when peak gold was reached , and earmarked for exploration then ..they have left it too late and gave too much money back to shareholders to appease them in the process ,.. all to prolong their own tenure as directors.
So the term capital restructuring ...put simply means that shareholders will pay , one way or another.
In my view , Cey is no longer a ' recovery share ' it's a dog share. I was wrong in my assessment of what yesterday's life of mine report would bring and I admit it It seems the market was too, based on share price falls since. .I will hold until early January though , when the quarter 4 production figures will be published , which will show a 50% increase in production from Quarter 4 of last year .. the market will react , the SP will rise and I will depart
Trading on RSI is risky- but good luck to you Tornadotony
52 week low
Can not recall see the RSI hit so bad in awhile so got some some at 87.58
Broker Liberium were spot on with there forecast
Hi - first message here. This is the worst stock I own at the moment but I appreciate the community here for the input on what's happening so thanks folks. Hopefully the price will be too low to resist now but I won't hold my breath!
The chap who made a killing on Centamin was previous head Josef El Raghy. I cant understand the logic of resisting the Endeavour approach . Rebuffing and not giving access to books was irresponsible. They wanted to buy out around £1.40
Could it be that there is a huge fraud in what they are telling us? and Gold Reserves are not really worth much.. If all was true the shares should have moved north of £1.20 but have fallen
86p finish if we're lucky.
Interesting take on the geo political situation influencing the price of gold if tensions start to rise.
Bully for you.
Having to now look toward far-horizons for any change in fortunes that the company may/may not deliver, any set-backs along the way and this SP will end up in the dustbin. - It stands naked now, without armour, without protection. perfect for manipulation if a take-over is the aim. - Pardey could not have maneuvered the company into a more vulnerable position if he'd tried. - And he did try very hard. - IMO
Glad I sold on recent rally I was going to wait till 8th before deciding on whether to stay in but sold out at 103 on the move to 106.
Must be vulnerable to a take over at this price
Sage words kando. The breakout you referred to has just arrived ..key decision time
Thanks Tornadotony .
It is so refreshing to read posts which are well researched . I will give you my thoughts later when I have the time
Well done Liberum - Spot-on.
Watch for CPI data in US tomorrow- gold could well move …
Hey Goldgnome,
Apologies for late reply, been on a golf break.
I agree on the CEY problem, the timeframes are too long, and I agree a lot of what Cowichan posted on reflection.
The AISC is not good, the markets operate at an exponentially increasing rate these days and this will not abate as the tech moves ever increasingly fast. It's like the recovery from the Oct2020 issues are too long, until yesterday's update, many thought (like me) would be much quicker.
New investors will most likely wait and see- as the up and coming financials won't be pretty. On looking at new finance, fine if it's for paying for expansion, but not simply to keep divis going and/or worse, paying for increasing costs- these divis would have to be reduced. the finance man was not very convincing.
Simply put, main SP movements always and will remain around RNS.
On the "will there be a crash", the biggest issue for me is all the doomsayers who constantly predict one, and have been wrong far more than right- for example the main indices in the US have increased massively, and a big drop would still put them ahead if they had simply put their money under their beds. I have a good friend who bailed after March2020 drop and is totally miffed he went low risk out of panic, and we had and have a "K" shaped recovery... can we all see anything coming? No is the answer.
For me- I'm going to move my main pension to more risk off balance now, to protect the big gains in the past 18months.
Kerplunk..
and worst..i closed my UGP yesterday and bought 33000x centamins with average 92.2....and where they are now...??? my ugp in that time +0.07$.. Fail..
And it's only Thursday :-)
Always sucks on a friday
Tibbs I don't believe West Africa to be a bad investment as the resource at Doropo and ABC look to be very promising and would suggest relatively low cost operations (providing they don't rush it) with an established mining sector. What is a pain is that Batie has been put into the too difficult basket a decision made by the current management. In my opinion better to bite the bullet and walk away rather than trying to make it fit, because the latter could end up being an expensive decision.
If Russia invade the Ukraine no one is going to hold Gold Back.
Doubt anyone with any moral fibre would wish that upon anyone for a few Quids profit but it's there in the background and even rising tensions might give it a boost.
Just my opinion of course.
GLA. Good analysis on this BB as always
Tibbs Sukari original mine plan was designed to achieve 500,000 ounces per annum and this was achieved so as far as I could see job done. Then it all went wrong basically seriously poor marketing. Promising more than achievable without taking shortcuts and doing what has now led to getting stuck in the corner with no way out other than to go back to the start and open up other areas. I liken it to cleaning the floor and starting at the door rather than the far wall. The problem now is that they have a major expense having to employ a contractor to break down the walls so that they can commence work again. The issue is that the contractor costs go straight to the bottom line as waste generates no revenue. What this will do if it hasn't already is free up the Centamin fleet to concentrate on ore and flexibility will then allow them to mine several faces maybe of different grades and control grades rather than all or nothing, which has been the case over the last few years. So I am looking at the future as there is nothing that can be done about the past other than moan.