Centamin PLC Share Chat (CEY)

Currently + 0.09% +$1.28 $1273.68

High of the day $1273.99

Tiger

I have no clear evidence other than looking at Endeavours startegy presentaiton, and knowiing that in the old business everyone seems to think bigger is better, esp at the top end of town, M Bristow, Newmont, Barrick, Randgold, so I am not going to be at all surprised to see some other developments in the mid tier space! If gold Price is linked ot uncertainty/political upheaval then its going to go a lot higher. When you start to see comedians getting elected in Italy and now Ukraine its telling you something. We have a second rate comedy act down here in Oz, with some ordinary talents, even as comedians!

Always pays to keep a look for the M and A game

the gnome

Nickel_Investor,

Thats interesting he took a position in Enquest also, Thease two happen to be my largest holdings. My average is better than his on Enquest but worse here.

@barondaytrading on twitter is now in here. He has a phenomenal record for making calls. Expect a large chunk of his 8,000 followers will buy CEY now.

Not in myself but GLA

Hi Chas!
I struggled through the conference call - Andrew Pardey really has no communication skills whatsoever! I still believe he has been over-promoted, and he is basically unsuited to being the CEO of a PLC.
That said, the actual substance of the call was OK.
Q2 production was hinted to be a little stronger than Q1, which if you keep in mind the 45%/55% H1/H2 split in production this year, would put Centamin on a path either to reaching the top end of guidance or to exceeding it. The company was also confident it could reduce costs further, despite high Egyptian inflation.
Management also ran through exploration results in Egypt and Cote d'Ivoire, but made no mention of Burkino Faso. It's like it's vanished into thin air. Unfortunately, none of the analysts asked about it, but I'm left with the impression that some corporate activity is definitely in the air. FWIW, I agree with Gold Gnome's hunch about a tie-up with Endeavour, but I've got no firm evidence to back it up.

v.upbeat conference call...having rebased expectations they're back to the CEY of old when they consistently come in ahead of forecasts...we're into an upgrade cycle from here...

Anybody join in the conference call?

Any nuggets worth sharing?

thanks

INTRINSIC VALUE BASED ON FUTURE CASH FLOWS : 113p

https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/materials/lse-cey/centamin-shares

ps: refresh the page few times to see all info

back to 100-110p in short term - excellent long term investment !!!

buy more while is cheappppp!!!

Actually I think an Endeavour - Centamin tie up would make sense!.

Centamin now have probably of the order of 5 m ozs in Burkina, and lets say 3 m ozs in Cote Ivoire and more ouncs ot come for sure.

Endevaours wants to (se the link below for their latest strategy presentation)

https://s21.q4cdn.com/954147562/files/doc_presentations/2018/11/EDV-2018-investor-day-presentation.pdf

1. expand its west african profile by 10-15 m ozs in 5 years AND THIS WILL NOT HAPPEN BY NORMAL EXPLORATION PROCESS FOR SURE

2. Reach a $890/oz AISC (Centamin are at this level)

3. Production profile of 670-720k ozs pa (Centamin can make a major contribution)

well a merger with Centamin will deliver this in one sweep.

Can they work out a vallue proposition?

Looks very interesting to me....on the edge of my seat ...

best
goldgnome

1) CENTAMIN (CEY LN, BUY 110p) – Q1 Production – Beat: CEY has released Q1 production of 116koz (incrementally above the guidance range of 105koz-115koz) with 3.25Mt processed through the plant, cash costs of US$631/oz (NUMe US$700/oz) and AISC of US$898/oz (US$950/oz). The company generated US$13.9m of FCF during the period and finished with no debt and US$331.6m of cash.
=>Guidance maintained: Management have retained guidance of 490koz-520koz ata cash cost of US$675/oz-US$725/oz and an AISC of US$890/oz-US$950/oz.
=> Finally some good results: These are a decent set of results after a challenging period for CEY and we expect a positive response form the shares. The main catalysts should be continued operational improvements at Sukari, the results of the feasibility into a 40MW solar plant at the mine, the PEA for the Doropo project and the publication of a three year mine plan. We retain a Buy recommendation and a 110p target price based on 1x NAV and 8x CF.

Might be some new form of DD, for a smart bit of M and A. Highly speculative of course, but sillier things have happened!

Annual guidance is 490-520K ounces @ $890-$950 AISC, with 55% of production coming in H2.
Q1 actual production is 116K ounces @ $898 AISC.
Q1 production (116K ounces) is 23% of midpoint of annual guidance (505K ounces).
Therefore, we should expect a roughly similar production number for Q2 production, given the 45/55 H1/H2 split in annual guidance.
Also, if you straightline Q1's AISC figure over an assumed annual production of 505K ounces, it would come in at a very attractive $826 per ounce. (However, this number is probably "wrong" as the company has phased its sustaining capital investments). Still, Q1's AISC is not bad.
The solar farm isn't included in any company figures yet, as it has been given the official go ahead. The sooner they get started on it the better, as far as I'm concerned.

Hi Prof!
That puzzled me as well - it's like some kind of weird job switch!
I can't help speculating that it might be somehow linked to Burkino Faso; sale of JV of BF assets to Endeavour in the offing?!?

Unless I am getting confused Jeremy Langford, the new COO, was until February the COO at Endeavour. Endeavour is where Mark Morecambe, Centamin's former COO will be starting next month.
Any thoughts on that anyone?
Best wishes,
Prof

I'd agree with most of that.
Production numbers ahead of guidance. Drill results good. We even have a new C.O.O. (though I'm sure we'll never get to know why the last C.O.O. departed).
Barring a slump in the gold price, I think this will turn out to be the bottom of the SP's fall.
Still radio silence on Burkino Faso. My take on that is that the assets are up for sale and negotiations are ongoing. I could be wrong, but what else could it be?

As said I looked forward to this morning with trepidation and hope, trepidation as last few results were so bad, hope as expectations for these results were so low, I said I invested over £200k thinking the results would show the worst is over and unlikely to be even worse than expected. Still was worrying
Yes aisc is still high, yes production is still low, but the fall has been halted and as a result I hope the share price will turn, but not back up to 190 yet, as we now need a higher gold price for the same share price. Let’s hope as said market looks at rot being stopped rather than rot. I plan on holding. The management have done quite well

Centamin reports better-than-expected first-quarter gold output

Gold miner Centamin reported first-quarter production that exceeded its forecast and stuck to its annual output target as it ramped up drilling at its Sukari mine in Egypt.
The company's output totalled 116,183 ounces of gold for the three months ended March 31, above its forecast range of 105,000 to 115,000 ounces.
But that was lower than a year earlier when its production came in at 124,296 ounces of gold.

Thats not a bad set of numbers, and there is room to go down in the AISC, depending on how they have factored in or not Solar and some other factors which Ia m sure they are onto. The grades are interesting for underground, and some of the runs of ~200+gpt Au, + nice thicknesses ...

PTAH UGRSD0947 630 depth 4m@450.7
PTAH UGRSD0969 627depth 7m@198.1

Sure htye have learnt ,and sure Blackrock is assisting ....

best
the goldgnome

Your worried about AISC and POG and yet you invest another £200k?
What about your future divi it will be pants if any at all?

Torn, looks like good progress on the SOLAR FRONT...makes a lot of sense, short and long term

Outlook ....

· The Company is on track and reiterates annual guidance for 2019: gold production of 490,000 - 520,000 ounces, at cash costs of US$675-725 per ounce produced and an AISC of US$890-950 per ounce sold.

· Completion of 40MW (AC) solar power plant feasibility study at Sukari during H2 2019, with the scope to significantly reduce power costs and reliance on fossil fuels.

· The Company will release 3-year outlook, including 2020 and 2021 guidance, in Q2 2019.

Well that’s a bit better
Just beat the lowered predicted production figure that so hit the share price, still well below a year ago but improving
And AISC at bottom of raised expectation...so far
The year is expected to be as predicted
But for CENTAMIN THAT IS GOOD NEWS
so let’s hope market reacts to ‘on course’ rather than below last year and shares rise a bit today, even amidst weak gold

Europe lower in premarket amid earnings

European stock markets traded lower in Wednesday's premarket session as investors digest a fresh set of earnings released before the bell. Hyundai, SAP, Novartis, and Credit Suisse were just among the companies to post their quarterly numbers, while some of the biggest US companies including Tesla, Facebook, Microsoft and Visa are set to report their figures after Wall Street closes for trading today.

The FTSE 100 was 0.21% lower in premarket, while the DAX lost 0.15% at the same time. In Paris, the CAC 40 traded 0.22% in the negative territory. The euro was 0.13% lower against the dollar to sell for 1.1214 at 8:04 am CET, while the pound was little changed versus the greenback to change hands for 1.2934 at the same time.

Breaking the News / FH

- 0.17% - $2.15 $1270.25

High of the day $1272.41

Did anyone spot the chunky buying after the bell?