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52 week low
Can not recall see the RSI hit so bad in awhile so got some some at 87.58
Broker Liberium were spot on with there forecast
Hi - first message here. This is the worst stock I own at the moment but I appreciate the community here for the input on what's happening so thanks folks. Hopefully the price will be too low to resist now but I won't hold my breath!
The chap who made a killing on Centamin was previous head Josef El Raghy. I cant understand the logic of resisting the Endeavour approach . Rebuffing and not giving access to books was irresponsible. They wanted to buy out around £1.40
Could it be that there is a huge fraud in what they are telling us? and Gold Reserves are not really worth much.. If all was true the shares should have moved north of £1.20 but have fallen
86p finish if we're lucky.
Interesting take on the geo political situation influencing the price of gold if tensions start to rise.
Bully for you.
Having to now look toward far-horizons for any change in fortunes that the company may/may not deliver, any set-backs along the way and this SP will end up in the dustbin. - It stands naked now, without armour, without protection. perfect for manipulation if a take-over is the aim. - Pardey could not have maneuvered the company into a more vulnerable position if he'd tried. - And he did try very hard. - IMO
Glad I sold on recent rally I was going to wait till 8th before deciding on whether to stay in but sold out at 103 on the move to 106.
Must be vulnerable to a take over at this price
Sage words kando. The breakout you referred to has just arrived ..key decision time
Thanks Tornadotony .
It is so refreshing to read posts which are well researched . I will give you my thoughts later when I have the time
Well done Liberum - Spot-on.
Watch for CPI data in US tomorrow- gold could well move …
Hey Goldgnome,
Apologies for late reply, been on a golf break.
I agree on the CEY problem, the timeframes are too long, and I agree a lot of what Cowichan posted on reflection.
The AISC is not good, the markets operate at an exponentially increasing rate these days and this will not abate as the tech moves ever increasingly fast. It's like the recovery from the Oct2020 issues are too long, until yesterday's update, many thought (like me) would be much quicker.
New investors will most likely wait and see- as the up and coming financials won't be pretty. On looking at new finance, fine if it's for paying for expansion, but not simply to keep divis going and/or worse, paying for increasing costs- these divis would have to be reduced. the finance man was not very convincing.
Simply put, main SP movements always and will remain around RNS.
On the "will there be a crash", the biggest issue for me is all the doomsayers who constantly predict one, and have been wrong far more than right- for example the main indices in the US have increased massively, and a big drop would still put them ahead if they had simply put their money under their beds. I have a good friend who bailed after March2020 drop and is totally miffed he went low risk out of panic, and we had and have a "K" shaped recovery... can we all see anything coming? No is the answer.
For me- I'm going to move my main pension to more risk off balance now, to protect the big gains in the past 18months.
Kerplunk..
and worst..i closed my UGP yesterday and bought 33000x centamins with average 92.2....and where they are now...??? my ugp in that time +0.07$.. Fail..
And it's only Thursday :-)
Always sucks on a friday
Tibbs I don't believe West Africa to be a bad investment as the resource at Doropo and ABC look to be very promising and would suggest relatively low cost operations (providing they don't rush it) with an established mining sector. What is a pain is that Batie has been put into the too difficult basket a decision made by the current management. In my opinion better to bite the bullet and walk away rather than trying to make it fit, because the latter could end up being an expensive decision.
If Russia invade the Ukraine no one is going to hold Gold Back.
Doubt anyone with any moral fibre would wish that upon anyone for a few Quids profit but it's there in the background and even rising tensions might give it a boost.
Just my opinion of course.
GLA. Good analysis on this BB as always
Tibbs Sukari original mine plan was designed to achieve 500,000 ounces per annum and this was achieved so as far as I could see job done. Then it all went wrong basically seriously poor marketing. Promising more than achievable without taking shortcuts and doing what has now led to getting stuck in the corner with no way out other than to go back to the start and open up other areas. I liken it to cleaning the floor and starting at the door rather than the far wall. The problem now is that they have a major expense having to employ a contractor to break down the walls so that they can commence work again. The issue is that the contractor costs go straight to the bottom line as waste generates no revenue. What this will do if it hasn't already is free up the Centamin fleet to concentrate on ore and flexibility will then allow them to mine several faces maybe of different grades and control grades rather than all or nothing, which has been the case over the last few years. So I am looking at the future as there is nothing that can be done about the past other than moan.
Price to book ratio for Centamin at this time is 1.07x which is the lowest for the entire year. The lowest in the past 5 years was 0.92x on 23 August 2019. The 5 year average was 1.484 and the peak matching the high gold price was 2.5 times. 78p would be a new all time low on Centamin share price. The operating PE rate is 6.0 and normalised PE is 9.9. Both of these are historically very low.
As for yesterday, the company had done some homework and carried out enough drilling to deliver resource and reserve data that would meet audit requirements and had not been done before. The new CEO has been repairing the inherited legacy of what a previous manager had not done. Restoring back reserves and resources was a first step, and now they are drilling to find the bonanza grades which could give the company a solid output profile to 2027. There is a cost of doing it and AISC that may have been held down for budget reasons is now come back up to recover the remainder that had not been done in the past. So far the company has been punished for putting a lot of problems right. Eventually, Centamin share price should correct to fair value.
As for the finance review, could Centamin buy another mining company that can deliver 3M ounces and who knows may be the next Sukari type of deposit. Such an investment uses up the cash in hand and may need a debt line, but securing what could be 6 years supply would model Centamin back to where it was in 2015 with many promising years in front of it.
The more gold that China and Russia accumulate is all the more reason for the Yank's to keep hammering the price down on the Comex whilst the regulators look the other way and Wall Street don't care a jot as long as the Dow keeps rising and the paper dollar stays strong!