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Cowichan ...I like the idea of spinning off Doropo , Batie and ABC into a separate entity , I would agree with that , but I don't like the idea of raising new equity to fund it , even if it remains a majority owned entity , because how can the equity holders of the new company get their returns without it having a corresponding taking away of returns from current Centamin shareholders ?
Whichever way you structure it , the raising of new equity will dilute the equity of existing shareholders.
My solution would be to do exactly as you say , but treat the new company as a devolved entity ( just like Scotland ) and allow it to manage its own affairs , unencumbered by central board apart from returns targets for the capital allocated to it .
That might just work and buy them more time
Regards
Irontaz: I have got a target of £1.30, so I hope you are right. GSK has been flying as of late, I was going to hold until the split, but changed my mind today. I have doubled my holding of CEY. It's a bit scary!!!
How comes there is no news of future dividends? Can anyone point me in the direction of what we can expect in dividends in 2022?
Kintore,
9 posts in a little over 3 years and this your first one on CEY!
You don't post much but that was a very good post. Welcome to the CEY page.
Best wishes,
Prof
Mr Tibbles you going negative is dissappointing Sir.
Do not be taken in bt all those negative people.
Good night.
Very true Patryk, very good point!
Hi Kintor
Oh we are also hoping, problem is we have been hoping for over a decade and just when it seems that last things have finally come good there is an unexpected occurrence and it all comes crashing down!
Complacency rules in the boardroom at Centamin, even when the share price is on it's ar*e!
We were at these levels even before stage 4 completion and when profit share was a dream!
You never know with our board we might hit 20p before much longer or even go bust!
Irish central bank increases gold reserves with 33% due to inflation worries.
N0mad, I did exactly the same. I sold my entire GSK and put 20k in to CEY yesterday. I believe this is oversold and will test 120 to 130 between now and end of 2022. GLA
Well I suppose the West African diversification came about because at that time the T&C of mining concessions in Egypt were unfavorable, obviously that has now changed whilst the threat from Islamic extremism has increased in West Africa.
Hi Dasut,
Thank you for your reply and explanation, I really can't understand why they, Josef, Youssef and Pardey were allowed by the board to carry on making such exaggerated forward guidance estimates , very irresponsible to say the least.
Just after the near pit wall collapse I asked Buchanan about the production cut being in part due to being unable to access other unaffected areas of the open pit and was this a result of the accumulation waste from years of high grading and how could this have come about, I was told the board simply didn't realist that there hadn't been any waste clearance in the open pit for several years ?
I understand exactly where you are coming from when running factory shop floor production line , a garage workshop, civil engineering contacts it is essential to schedule in regular clean ups and waste removal , yet the board sat on their hands in Jersey contemplating the weather and their bonuses blissfully unaware that the Sukari open pit was in danger of becoming so full of waste that it would become unworkable!
Kintore, we are all forgetting that 2024 is in a years time not 2!! ;)
The recent information on mine geology from the company has been very reassuring, there seems to be a very progressive drive to understand the mineralisation characteristics of ore body.
Unless someone knows different or gold collapses this share will return 8-9% dividend (at last weeks average prices) throughout the next 2 years.
Most of the ongoing costs (cut back, grade drilling, underground development) over the next few years are required to get to the higher grade ore bodies and extent the mine life. There really is no other option and the management team have explained this quite well, especially when answering investor questions at the presentation.
I am hoping in 2 years time it will be difficult to find a 500,000+oz mine at this valuation and CEY will be back above £1.50.who knows?
Just finished watching the complete presentation from our CEO and I didn't hear a word about Batie West so anything I say is just speculation.
But going from memory Burkina Faso charges just over a million a year to maintain a valid 'exploitation' license. Batie was subject to the exploitation license expiring in November 2021 - and I was unaware that it could be renewed barring development commencing.
So the fact that 2022 has elevated admin costs at Batie might indicate something - but damned if I know what that something might be -
I hold the board of directors directly responsible for the BS that transpired and perhaps is transpiring at Batie - I would guess our CEO probably isn't that vocal on the subject because it wasn't his project and likely won't be his project going forward
Thnx ElProfessor, I guess it’s difficult to judge which way this will go in 2022. It’s a real shocker to see Cey at these levels again esp with what’s in the pipeline, hence me thinking have I missed something…
GSK at a 27% profit? Didn't realise it was that volatile. GDR would certainly have attracted that profitability right now. Good luck with your Egyptian venture.
Hi Patryk,
From memory most of what they said yesterday about production for the next few years was in line with what they had previously suggested.
The big shocker was the level of AISC next year.
The big positive was the increased reserves.
Best wishes,
Prof
Cowichan,
What is your view of the slide showing exploration capex for next couple of years. It is shows a capex on Batie West of several million dollars in 2022, more than doubling 2021 capex on BW. Then nothing in 2023 implying it is off the books by then. Any thoughts on what sort of capex could make BW a more profitable disposal? The capex commitment argues against planning to just walking away from Batie West.
Didn’t they state they expect the production levels to increase back to what they were in 2024 which would mean that production would rise in 2023 therefore if we are valued at 87p now, surely the company value would increase through 2023. Obviously if they hit no obstacles…
The bod need to back their update yesterday with chunky share purchases?
That is the best way to fund Centamin's growth ambitions while rewarding shareholders at the same time. And luckily it may be what Mr Horgan was referring to when he mentioned a 'capital structure review'. So here are my two big takeaways from the presentation (which I'm not yet finished watching!)
1) We picked up a long time Barrick/Randgold employee to run Sukari. If that doesn't scream Barrick was/is determined to get inside the Centamin machine (a la Endeavour's Mark Marcombe mole) nothing does. Check out Gustav's CV here:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/gustav-du-toit-b925808/
I'm not saying it isn't a good thing to attract a high calibre employee - but it might be part of something bigger
2) the proposed 'capital structure review' could be taken to mean = spinout the West Africa assets into a new Centamin majority owned entity. This would allow Konkera Gold (or whatever the new entity is called) to raise capital on the TSX to fully fund the Doropo mine building phase (and perhaps Batie West & ABC?) Considering the crap-shoot projects that get funded on the TSX this should be exceedingly easy to accomplish if management has the will and energy to take it on. I truly think this would be a win-win option for shareholders.
Also, if anyone likes this idea as much as I do - perhaps we could ALL send an email and encourage management to take this direction - before they do something dilutive and make the share price even more attractive to the sharks.
If we want anything good to happen to the share price in the next 12- 24 months we need to let our voice be heard now.
I just sold my GSK at 27% profit and bought over £25K of CEY just before the close. I hope this will bounce back, but I am willing to hold this for a few years to see it comeback. I think Martin is a great guy and he has a great history behind him.
It was overbought last year, now its over sold - will end up somewhere inbetween. Gold is only going one way, and that is up..inflation adds to overheads but people don't factor in that gold will be on the rise big time very soon -the reason, paper money is literally overflowing out of the central banks and they can only tell so many porkies until everyone realises, just ask Boris- the asset is still here, no debt. Patience required, but a lot of short term views being spouted by guys spread betting this on margin. If you didn't buy on margin, just sit back and wait.
Gold and gold miners usually show weakness through this week and then turn after the FOMC meeting (14-15 Dec).
I wonder why?