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White vinegar is the probably the most effective glass cleaner and brilliant descaler and mould killer for the washing machine rubbers1
Also forget fabric conditioners and instead buy a pack of Soda crystals, first put half the bag in the drum of the washing machine an run on a hot cycle, washing machine id totally cleaned of all gunge, then each wash cycle put half a cup of soda crystals into the drum, this softens the water and prevents odours and limescale .
https://www.dri-pak.co.uk/cleaning-products/soda-crystals/
Very interesting Mr Bond,
With so much to be depressed about today at least informative positive solutions to Sukari problems gives us some hope .
Hi Dasut,
I am very grateful for your generosity and patience in sharing your professional knowledge over the years over the years I have been invested in Centamin, however through your past professional experience you will have formed some good idea of what should have been achieved thus far at Sukari .
I sense from your statement that the mess created by the poor practice of previous management was understated and the rectification works needed has been severely underestimated, possibly even purposely for whatever reasons
Sukari may have had the potential to become a world class mine had it been managed in the right manner by the right people, although as we are now painfully aware Josef ,Youssef and Andrew Pardey were condoning high grading whilst denying concerns about poorer grades to give the impression that the 560- 600,000 0z per annum was sustainable , that said this seems to have never been questioned by the BOD until a near catastrophic disaster forced their hands.
Sammi El Raghy may have discovered and promoted the recourse, what a great pity it wasn't operated in a more professional, capable and possibly even more honest manner by his siblings and appointed management.
Centamin is in a mess, will it recover is still open to debate, West Africa seems to have been little more than a poorly thought through and shambolic diversion exercise over several years that has achieved little more than huge expense for no return.
I have great faith in Martin Horgan and his team, but that said they cant perform miracles and it seems Sukari may have become a basket case unless things improve dramatically or Centamin becomes part of a much bigger concern.
SJ
The gold price floundering is setting the price at the moment, and the LOM plan for Sukari was largely positive (not overly inspiring) in a LOM time span, but not so pleasant for the short term. I read the LOM now being well in excess of 10 years now, and continue to be intrigued about the underground potential.
So to the heart of the matter..the price of gold ...
Been going back over some notes circa 2007/8. In his Fall 2008 GMO letter, Grantham commented on his evaluation of the underlying causes of the then-ongoing world credit crisis:
"To avoid the development of crises, you need a plentiful supply of foresight, imagination, and competence. A few quarters ago I likened our financial system to an elaborate suspension bridge, hopefully built with some good, old-fashioned Victorian over-engineering. Well, it wasn't over-engineered! It was built to do just one under favorable conditions. Now with hurricanes blowing, the Corps of Engineers, as it were, are working around the clock to prop up a suspiciously jerry-built edifice. When a crisis occurs, you need competence and courage to deal with it. The bitterest disappointment of this crisis has been how completely the build-up of the bubbles in asset prices and risk-taking was rationalized and ignored by the authorities, especially the formerly esteemed Chairman of the Fed. ..."
I ask myself, 'Why is it that several dozen people saw this crisis coming for years?' I described it as being like watching a train wreck in very slow motion. It seemed so inevitable and so merciless, and yet the bosses of Merrill Lynch and Citi and even U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson and Fed chairman Ben Bernanke – none of them seemed to see it coming.
Well somethings do not change eh? Political and economic competence went missing a decade ago. No lessons learnt.
In the southern colonies we have state borders getting opened and shut like a sh@t house door in a storm (pity the poor tourism operators as the planes are still at 50% and getting less, which wshes into hotels, tourism operators etc), people preferring to work their way and at their pace, and get a pay rise for it. If not out on strike. Since early November the A$ has been descending from 75.5 US cents and is now hovering around 70 US cents. Chinese developer Evergrande is likely to be in default, amid reports it has missed a final bond payment deadline, but ... markets are shrugging off the news amid stimulus from China's central bank.
Just wish John Lennon would come back and give us an update in "Gimme some truth"...41 years ago, how time flies
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UaiGABTj0aA
best
the gnome
Thanks Tornadotony
The effort you put into your analysis is much appreciated. - Cheers.
ps://www.centamin.com/media/2471/cey-lom-investor-presentation-final.pdf
On three different slides they break some of it down, $74 increased processing costs, $21 sustaining capex costs above the mean, $34 was on shipping and G and A costs, Corporate ESG etc was $18, rebuilding of inventories $18, $48 additional capex that is non-sustaining as they are doing a lot of drilling etcetera, $50 was a carryover of capex from 2021 that was not spent this year. Which have added $275 per ounce into 2022. Some of these disappear on 2023 and contain elements that are 2022 only. AISC did increase during 2021 higher than the base from 2020 so the starting point becomes $1150. 1150 plus 275 and gives the top end figure of $1425. What can happen during the year is only half the non-sustaining spend happens and that we could get another $50 carryover into 2023 and the company through savings achieves another $40 off and quite quickly the figure is $1300. If the gold price is lower the company would re-plan other activities and that is where the $1250 may come in or inflation reduces and so forth. Hence the wide range.
So before when AISC was $900 and gold was $1250. Real profits may have been just $200 an ounce. With AISC say at $1350 and gold averaging 1800 the profit is $220 an ounce. If AISC goes down to $1250 the profit strikes $270 in future years. If gold goes up a further $100 the additional profit for CEY is 21%, but usually AISC overruns as well and hence why I suggest that every $100 in gold increase pushes Centamin up 10p which is 11.2% on its base price which for simplicity I call 90p a share.
It isn't possible to explain the reason for the higher AISC for 2022 without looking at the detail behind it , however it is likely to be the 'in year recognition' of one off expenditure from that or earlier years .
The main thing to note is that they are indicating that cost price inflation going forward is very high. Gold prices will need to rise from their current prices just to stand still on the profits front
The headline of making significant progress against production reset levels is laughable , but not in a good way ... given that the word reset actually means reduction ..so they are making progress in achieving these reduced levels of annual production.
The cash in the bank has fallen to $ 250 million ..when they talk about reviewing capital structure , they mean introducing debt ..not necessarily a bad thing depending on what they are using it for. If it's to fund genuine future growth, then that's ok , but if it's to fund future dividends ( running around $ 105 million p/a) then that isn't good . It's the equivalent of borrowing money to pay for the house keeping ...the prudent thing to do would be to either reduce or cease dividend payments . just think how that would go down though ..
I cannot understand how anyone could read the future production and AISC targets and be reassured by them.
Sorry to be so negative ..but this was my worst case scenario .namely extending life of Sukari mine by 2 years , to be achieved by reducing annual levels of production . The cost savings on top give me the impression that they are squeezing out every last drop before the patient dies.
Dasut I suspect the problem is traders who hoped for a big SP rise today ,so as to move on.
I suppose lse after all is their platform for the moment ;-)
Tibbs I would also have loved more sooner but an expensive major contract for waste removal tells me that the problems were and are still very large.
Solar panels can be cleaned quicky with air spry such as gardeners use.
If further cleaning is neccesary water vinegar and a small amount of detergent can be used with a spray.
In desert conditions only an occasional dust removal is needed as the Eastern Desert has little air pollution.
Dust would only lose 5% and likelymuch get blown away naturally.
That happened with a dormant Mars rover, it suddenly woke up after more than a year :-)
Cowichan , certainly very hard to justify the worth of the present BOD, but has'nt it always been that way, possibly too much family nepotism as well, although lazy orincompetent board members seems to be the norm in many other mining companies, they get the bonuses and free shares, the share holders get the scraps and shafted when it suits!
Hoped for better sooner!
Just a thought: - Have we seen the shop window dressed today ready for the January-sale.
I have read a few of the postings today and don't get the negativity as I am relieved that Centamin at long last know what their resources have to offer and reserves are more realistic and conservative with production far more achievable. The relief for me is that if management didn't get hold of the operation we would be looking at less than 400,000 ounces per annum and losses rather than profits. AISC yes way too high next year but I for one have no idea how to reduce these costs so struggle to criticize, if they are to reach the flexibility that is required to mine multiple faces both above and below ground. I am disappointed however that they didn't address a question that I asked about Batie.
Not sure how they can fast track Doropo any more than they are because from the figures the proven reserves aren't sufficient to lay down a detailed mine plan and present a bankable document.
Moving to borrowing I feel comfortable with when growing the company and if successful will show confidence of the financial community and strengthen their credit rating. To be honest there aren't many if any growth organisations that I know that operate without some level of borrowing. Good luck to all of us because no doubt that Sukari is a first class resource and now in my opinion we have a team that has the guts to bite the bullet and suffer the costs of getting the mine back on track.
Given Centamin gets no respect or share price premium for its generous dividend AND the board risks our total demise in 2022 with flat production and rising input costs - the only solution I see is going big with exploration. The drill program is currently modest across the board - we need to become a GROWTH company NOW. Holding the dividend policy 'as is' for another year will be our demise.
"So reviewing old slides with the pit they took reserves out and have now added them back in - look at slide 15 and then the various old presentations..."
------------------------------->>>>
It is truly amusing how the ounces were retracted through a reassessment of the Sukari ore body about a year ago - and now we've got them back via another reassessment.
The only thing that counts in the final assessment are the ounces produced. Not the smoke and mirrors of yet another 'transformation' by the same BODs. We need a new board, period.
Hi Dasut,
Thank you for your confirmation on this.
Washing a solar panel? They have a desalination plant that has good enough quality water to wash panels.
Agree. Can't read much into it.....
Well they did spend shed loads on drilling and exploration in West Africa, although to what ends and for what purpose exactly seems rather fuddled now to say the least!
UT
2mil buy shows proper trust to company...nice lads
Agree the board are a waste of time thats ehy they did nothing about Africa for a number of years
Also agrre that costs are high just when we thought 2022 was going to be a little better but that is not down to them oil,steel,labour,shippping has all gone up due to many reasons
Like i said earlier build 2 mines in 8 yrs no way
I wonder why the AISC cost projections are so high for 2022? - What is it that makes them so? -
https://twitter.com/DonLawson_/status/1468612007427330051
Centamin's board of directors need to go. This 'transformation' is a farce. AISC for 2022 is ridiculously high to be a 'goal'. Why no word of divesting Batie West? Why no thought of fast tracking Doropo? Zero accountability. The board lives in a dream world of ineptitude. Retire!
--------------------------------->>>
I appreciate some will think my response is unfair and/or harsh.
Suffice it to say when you've seen the same BODs come out with 'reboots' year after year after year and entitle the presentation labelling 2021 as transformational you better deliver some transformational news. So the waste removal you contracted out is coming along, is it? Well done! Exceptional! Except the estimated AISC for 2022 is obscenely high - and we are supposed to applaud this as an aspirational goal? Total BS. The board of directors is beyond redemption in my book - every single one.
Looking at the sp now and other PMs, would have probably been close to this price without any announcement today.
Gold remains under pressure relatively speaking - still think all PMs are undervalued, this has been the case ever since the gold price started to drop post the big rise around the summer of 2020 when most analysts were predicting massive gold rises