London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
I won't mention the cricket again..England 6/215..Djokovic visa to bat for UK refused. Australian PM declares no conflict of interest..
BACK TO BUSINESS ...
SWOT Analysis For 2022
Last year had its fair share—and more—of exogenous shocks: the Texas big freeze, the Suez Canal shutdown, the delta scariant, wildfires in California, and supply chain disruptions everywhere. It was also rich in extraordinary policy responses: quantitative easing amid the highest inflation rates for a generation, fiscal stimulus despite nominal GDP growth in double digits, new lockdowns, sweeping vaccine mandates, and in some countries naked discrimination against the unvaccinated. On top of all that, add a hefty sprinkling of unexpected market developments: GameStop, Spac speculation, and the NFT craze to name just three.
Against this backdrop, the world’s major currency pairs saw limited volatility, bond markets absorbed the inflation shock and did not sell off, gold was about as exciting as watching paint dry, and in 252 trading sessions the US equity market delivered 72 new all-time highs. So, the question for investors is clear: will this strong momentum continue into 2022?
Policy is starting to shift. Instead of adding US$120bn of fresh liquidity into the system every month, the US Federal Reserve is now tapering its bond purchases and signaling that it will raise interest rates in 2022.
The speculative fever is dying down: unprofitable companies are no longer beating proven cash flow generators. Aside from the big monopolies, tech stocks are no longer outperforming. The Spac craze has ended.
After sitting on their hands for most of 2021 as domestic growth rolled over, Chinese policymakers now seem ready to ease and to give cash-strapped companies a little breathing space.
Energy prices—whether for natural gas, coal or electricity—are shooting up everywhere, in large part because of a lack of investment in key energy infrastructure over recent years.
US and European government bond yields no longer seem as swayed by negative developments on the Covid front.
So the odds are that 2022 will be different to 2021. But how?
Interesting times (apart from the cricket)
the gnome
Equities in Europe mostly stood flat in the premarket on Friday ahead of the reports on Germany's trade balance and industrial production, the United Kingdom's house prices and construction activity, and the Eurozone's consumer confidence, prices, and retail sales.
Earlier, Italy posted another record in daily registered infections from coronavirus. Meanwhile, Britain's cases increased by almost 180,000 in the previous 24 hours.
The DAX and the FTSE 100 both stood flat at 7:17 am CET. At the same time, the CAC 40 gained 0.12%. The euro advanced by 0.09% against the dollar to sell for $1.13018. At that moment, the pound sterling rose by 0.10% against the greenback to go for $1.35423.
Baha Breaking the News (BBN) / JR
Have a good weekend y’al
A bit off topic, but for those who need a chuckle ...
FOR THE SPORTSPEOPLE
Cricket: Australian in solid position (apart from weather), England 4-135, pitch is flat, and now 281 runs behind. Rumours that England have put in a request to allow Djokovic to bat and open the bowling in the next test.
Tennis: Federer has denied paying bribes to the Australian PM and the Liberal Party, to ensure Djokovic cannot play at the Australian Open, and beat his record.
Serbian troops massing on the Swiss border?
The Victorian government says it was unaware of federal correspondence with Tennis Australia that warned unvaccinated players would not be granted exemptions to enter the country if they had recently contracted COVID-19 [nothing new here, the VicGovt still hasn't owned up to the security fiasco on the hotel lock ups last year]
Home Affairs Minister Karen Andrews says Djokovic is free to leave detention and return home, otherwise he has to do fruit picking as they cannot get enough back packers in through immigration.
Two people were arrested at an asylum seeker protest outside the hotel where Djokovic is held
Immigration lawyer Carina Ford says the ABF has scope to move Djokovic to a different hotel, even with tennis practice facilities, but would have to amend the type of detention he was subject to.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic had already vowed to fight (anyone?) for Djokovic, and the nation's foreign affairs agency has confirmed it expressed "verbal protest" over Djokovic's treatment with Australia's Ambassador to Serbia, Daniel Emery.
I don't watch comedy shows anymore, just read the news (occasionally?).
My apologies to the serious investors, bad sense of humour down under.
cheery days
the gnome
... DALIO: POG AND DISRUTION TO COME ... By connecting the dots back through time, we can see the causes and effects and imagine where we could be headed. We can see that the order we have assumed would never change could change in profoundly disruptive ways. For example, if we extrapolate the past and observe how the system is now working, we can see that there is an uncomfortably high probability that neither side will accept losing the 2024 elections. If that were to happen, rule of law and the constitution will be less influential than raw power. Imagine what that would mean for America as we’ve known it...AND USD AND FINANCIAL SYSTEM ETC ...
GOOD LUCK
Chat is temporarily unavailable, we apologise for any inconvenience caused.
Possibly havent paid their bills?
(At the risk of getting my ass handed to me,) it’s the website.
There is a lot of banter about the rotation from growth stocks to value stocks, and there is evidence in the broader market that this is happening Given that a lot of the growth in the growth stocks is more a function of the hot winds (money) from Wall Street and the financials, little wonder, that some disruption to the present trends is with us. I think this rotation will result in discovery of such "boring stocks" as CEY who actually produce something and has a p/e substantially less than 50 (Tesla’s forward P/E ratio is over 130, CEY about 10? but of course there is more upside in Tesla, despite their being significantly more competition to create a substantial downside, thanks Mecrcedes, Toyota, Mazda etc)
Acutely tuned to the gold price narrative. The debt monetarisation story remains unbelievable, and is without theoretical or practical limit. Just charge it to the account. Love the theatre in congress whent hey trash hit the debt ceiling, lots of healthy debate, wailing and gnashing of teeth, and then up goes the ceiling again (simply no choice)
https://mishtalk.com/economics/whats-behind-the-surge-in-m1-money-supply
Dalio is producing some good thoughts
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/changing-world-order-new-paradigm-ray-dalio/?published=t
best
the gnome
Same here, but pc is slow with security.
Thanks MrBond if it was only mine I’d run for the gate, still not happy but at least my suspicion is diluted.
The same Razors for over a week.
Q: If you click on another posters id are the posters post history revealed to you or are you seeing the same as I am, IE: “Chat is temporarily unavailable, we apologise for any inconvenience caused.”
I don’t like things not working for no believable reason.
Thanks for any reply.
Maybe surprising to you ,I agree.
Horgan I am sure did not fully understand what he had taken on.
The mess.
I am sttill prepared to give him more time.
As you say the market is cautious, thats the market of quick profits .
This is not favourable to that mentality.
End of year US compiance with Basel 3 ,may alter phisical dramatically,note I state maybe.
Good luck.
Patience. If things are moving slowly in the right direction the share price will follow. There are many out there who will make money out of any capitulation. This company will surely start to rise soon as gold rises with inflation. Or - of course - could fall more! I am betting on gold going up nicely over next 12 months!
Dear Viable. I am unfortunately just as edgy about the inability to address the share price trough. When Horgan was appointed gold was $1580, and our share price around 140p. He and the board, much admired here, had to contend with some unfortunate things coming home to roost. However almost two years in, and with a higher gold price, it is somewhat disappointing that the share price has nearly halved and still seems to be falling. The story he told was of a nadir now and from here steady improvement returning back to where we were. The share price looks forward so why are we still not seeing this, the yield isn’t what it seems and the dividend is likely to fall but then it should recover, so the inability to convince the market and address the share price deepening trough has been deeply concerning to me too imho.
If they give us a cheap gold price in pounds sterling, people will load up the boat and a truck with the stuff instead of holding FIAT. Inflation in the UK is just getting started. A lot of people can see the edge of a cliff. The choice is print more and do more QE or face the music and start paying the bills. Either option favours holding gold and gold miner stocks.
https://www.google.com/maps/place/Sukari+Gold+Mine+(SGM)/@24.9448766,34.7149193,3a,90.1y,90t/data=!3m8!1e2!3m6!1sAF1QipPAf6G7hm2RqPjLeYwVlHoG5I5IxkOLCeOq4FPM!2e10!3e12!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipPAf6G7hm2RqPjLeYwVlHoG5I5IxkOLCeOq4FPM%3Dw203-h113-k-no!7i640!8i359!4m5!3m4!1s0x15b4d98ec6c94019:0xc158b8d759d666e5!8m2!3d24.9448766!4d34.71491934
(from Google maps)
I note there are many more pix in the Sukari gallery.
Hopefully no one here is as edgy as I am with inability to address the SP trough.
Spot on Dasut, your assumptions are exactly as things were explained to me!
Tibbs I am not surprised that mining companies met with Centamin to talk about developing a business in Egypt. These companies will also have met with local service providers to ascertain ability to support the mines and future increases in demand. Doubt these meetings would have been at the mine, more likely in Alexandria and or Cairo where the majority of the logistics will be centred. Very much doubt that a company like Barrick will learn much by visiting Sukari as they have their own way of opening up and developing a mine and no two mines are the same.
These meetings would be done by the development guys at Barrick and given their experiences around the world they would likely be following a tried and tested check list.
What I am sure will happen in the future will be the setting up of a chamber of mines where the government and all mining companies will be represented and associate members will be contractors and service providers. There will be regular meetings and will cover all sorts of subjects, great way of getting things sorted out quickly and if there was such a chamber when the threat of the court case was raised it would have been nipped in the bud very quickly as all mining houses would be looking over their shoulder.
Cooperation in the future will be very important and benefit all parties.
Hi Dasut,
Thank you for the explanation on grades,it was also explained to me by the company in the past and Kees Dekker.
You are right about the security zone around Sukari, although I recall being told last year that Barrick and other miners had several meetings with Centamin prior to them applying for concessions mainly to seek advice on setting up Egyptian operations and the co operation is ongoing.
Kando, as said a. week ago seeing reasons to doubt your lovely expectation of a post Xmas usual gold rise "my point is gold usually gets going before Xmas, but sadly this year gold is down $60 since mid Nov, a sore disappointment as I had been hoping for it to get going over the last month; so I haven’t seen the signs tho of course ever hopeful. Good luck all". Sadly hope isn't enough and gold is having a tough time fighting rising interest rates....
Cowichan thanks but I haven't heard the rumour other than through your post. I just don't see why Bristow would need to visit Sukari other than to see what can be achieved in Egypt, but Barrick has already invested in Egypt so why the need to divert especially in these uncertain times? Sukari has a strict covid regime so like I say adds considerable time to his schedule. He will have a senior manager/director allocated to Egypt with a team of people and will already have a very thick dossier on all that happens in Egypt with a very detailed executive summary. Having said that am a little surprised that Bristow is attending the Saudi conference so maybe there is an ulterior motive but as I am not one for rumours.
Someone mentioned a fly over by helicopter but again unless things have changed Sukari is in a military zone and you need a pass from the military prior to getting a pass to Sukari even when visiting by vehicle.
You mentioned the stock pile on Linkedin and being able to feed the plant and reallocate the truck fleet to the waste removal rather than go to a contractor. If that had happened a guess is the year end production would have fallen well short of 400,000 ounces and processing costs through the roof because the stockpiled material is very low grade and will be left until close to the end of the mine life to process or blend with higher grade ore but certainly not yet as would dilute what is already lowish grade ore.
I probably should have “ significant but hardly imploding” I would have thought this might have actually helped gold producers, but as my mostly incorrect posts turn out to be wrong , it’s obvious I’m only making only rightly researched decisions.
Fair comments Tornado & halfenny,
Sums up our present government & the situation!
Everybody knows that the dice are loaded
Everybody rolls with their fingers crossed
Everybody knows the war is over
Everybody knows the good guys lost
Everybody knows the fight was fixed
The poor stay poor, the rich get rich
That's how it goes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lin-a2lTelg
We have a very serious stagnation problem. The impact is most of the economy. Small pockets are growth areas which benefit from people locked down in their homes and a dead cat is thrown out to say hey look at the growth over there and ignore GDP dropping over here. A lot of the GDP growth recorded is actually repairing damage to infrastructure arising from changes in our climate. Its not productive GDP and when that factor is included the real stagflation is far worse. We also have economists and central bankers on group think as they were on transitory inflation that we will not end up with continued stagflation. In the meantime we have to await the obvious actually being reported.
Hardly surprising after the bull run markets have had since lockdown ended in 2021, quant easing, neg interest rates, meme and crypto infant traders, akin to a slow mo train crash. Inflation genie out of the bottle and futtering with miniscule rate hikes isn't going to cut the mustard. Welcome back to the 1970's.......