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a Thanks Gnome, the forecasts for the gold price are probably no better than a Monkey throwing a dart, as with shares they consistently beat the average prediction which tends to go with what happened before, but this is in the market and the unexpected moves price. This year almost all pundits call for falling gold which may be hopeful.
b. Gold price has not just fallen in nominal terms over the last year, but worse in real terms has fallen an extra $100 dollars from inflation. It needs to be rising around $10 a month just to stay level in real terms and it isn’t. It is surprising our share price isn’t falling even further.
C. As Mr Bond I can’t see much of a takeover premium in the share price as Centamin could only sell half Sukari ownership so a buyer would be dependent on Emra support. Oils Emra
Want Barrick too powerful?
https://twitter.com/_capitallimited/status/1483334325135613952?s=21
European shares were lower in premarket trade on Tuesday as traders prepared for United Kingdom unemployment data and economic sentiment report for Germany and the Eurozone. Yesterday, Eurogroup President Paschal Donohoe warned that inflation will remain at a high level for longer than initially expected.
The DAX decreased by 0.22%, London's FTSE 100 was down 0.19%, while the CAC 40 contracted by 0.25% at 7:19 am CET.
The euro was 0.06% lower compared to the dollar at 7:36 am CET, trading for 1.13996. The British pound was flat against the greenback, changing hands for 1.36393 a minute later.
Baha Breaking the News (BBN) / MS
I am always interested in how country risk is calculated into investment calculations. Barrick maybe wishing to diversify out of the USA? Diversify into a country (via a company) where Mining has a social icense to operate, as it gives actively back into the government and local communities.
Resolution Copper (Tier 1 copper mine in the USA, and givend evelopments in Chile and elsewhere might be of strategic interest to the US Govt and Industry)– has been caught up in a heightened level of global activism against mining that has stalled not only this project but so many others, and is now threatening to undermine the fight against climate change, and with it the economic and military security of Western democracies.
Major projects have been blocked across the US. But it goes beyond America: from Chile to Serbia, fresh threats to critical minerals projects are popping up, dragging approval processes out to the point at which the average new mine now takes 16 years to start production, according to the International Energy Agency.
US President Joe Biden, who has repeatedly raised concerns about the need for critical minerals independence from China, which controls 73 per cent of the market, has also taken the activists’ side. Last year his government rescinded the approved environmental impact statement for the Resolution mine and ordered a review of an already approved deal by Congress allowing Rio Tinto ownership of the land.
I have posted previously about the contry risk in Australia, which is incresing every year. Just ask Djokovic.
ASIDE, Email from a Serbian friend
The life expectancy of Australians has increased since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, new research from the Australian National University (ANU) has revealed.
The average age of death is now 83 years old
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-18/australians-living-longer-due-to-pandemic-life-anu-study-finds/100761624
But the average age of people who died with covid was 86.9 years old (85.2 years for males, 88.4 years for females)
https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/covid-19-mortality-1
Should Victorians be locked up for 262 days every 2 years as part of a new strategy to extend life expectancy in the state? (State Premier has plans)
Is covid actually good for Australian Public, as its effects extend life, and hence should Djokovic be allowed back to play for the public good?
Should Australian states shut their borders at random more often?
There must be some robust science behind the government's thinking?
Cest la vie as they in Serbia
the Gnome
Excuse Typos and spellin,lost my online keyboard and cant bloody find the one I am used too.
The history and decisions of EMRA.
Many years ag when Mark Cambbel was working for Centamin accompaneing Sami the boss.
They both liked the prospects of Abu Marawat.
Then Cenamin were awarded the SUKARI concession,but Sami the Boss and excellent geoligist had a choice,one the other ,not both.
Sukari was chosen the other given up.
The reason .
Emra wanted more companies in Egypt.
Later they found many offered conceccions were sat on ,not made operational.
Not good .
their relationship with Sukari Centamin has been succesful.
IMO they will not allow Sukari nor Centamin in Egypt to be taken over or aquired by a Giant.
Who has already been offered concessions ie Priviliged/
It would not be good Press and not encourage other exploration and much cost to be controlled by outsiders. ie Giants.
Its Politics .
But only IMHO.
Think about it.
They would not allow Shalateen to be stolen by Suwaris ,and now they are much larger and neighbours. Having been given concessions in a prime region.Shalateen being Miltary owned.
EMRA , Military ,Government.
Hi 3bear,
You're ignoring the fact that the share price has already been hammered - and for the reasons I outlined previously. Would it be lower otherwise? I challenge anyone to lay out a scenario which is worse short of shutting down production altogether. But of course that would hardly make for an attractive takeover target. Balance is needed. A stellar ore body that has seen neglect and mismanagement. That is the tell-tale image Barrick needs to swoop in and be the hero, value 'creator' , etc. IMO
Thanks for the jolts, the inflation rate for each month is normalised to an annual rate, so no you cannot add them quite like that! But 7 is far greater than 2, even in economic speak.
April 2019
Worldbank issued its updated outlook on the commodities markets. The outlook includes gold price forecasts. For 2019 a price of 1,310 US dollars per ounce is expected. The gold price is forecast to rise further to 1,360 US dollars in 2020.
April 21, 2020
Analysts of Bank of America have published a report titled ‘The Fed Can’t Print Gold’ and set a gold price of US$ 3,000 in 18 months
November 17th, 2020
The global investment bank Goldman has reiterated its previous 12 month target of US$ 2,300 for the gold price.
February 4th, 2021
The London Bullion Market Association published its annual precious metals forecast survey. On average, the 38 surveyed analysts forecast a price of US$ 1,973.8 per troy ounce in 2021.
April 2021
The Worldbank forecasts prices to average 4% lower in 2021, and decline further in 2022. According to the Worldbank, nominal gold prices in U.S.-dollars should decline by 2025, before they tend higher again through 2030 and 2035.
July 6th, 2021
According to the investment bank Goldman Sachs, the gold price has significant upside potential of reaching up to US$ 2,500,
and so on
best
Predictions #1,723 In summary, we expect much better performance from gold in 2022, with the potential for a 60% advance from current levels. Gold miners could outperform to the upside and may double from current levels.
After rising to $3000 in 2022, we expect another consolidation, followed by new highs in 2023 and then a more profound decline in 2024...
The value of paper decreased by 7% last month...and then looking at the monthlies
Date Value
December 31, 2021 7.04%
November 30, 2021 6.81%
October 31, 2021 6.22%
September 30, 2021 5.39%
August 31, 2021 5.25%
July 31, 2021 5.37%
June 30, 2021 5.39%
May 31, 2021 4.99%
April 30, 2021 4.16%
March 31, 2021 2.62%
February 28, 2021 1.68%
January 31, 2021 1.40%
December 31, 2020 1.36%
https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_inflation_rate
If you add all the monthlies for the last 12 months, one gets about 58%, and TARGET WAS 2% ANNUAL. This means the purchasing value of your dollar you saved and put in the bank 12 monthsis a lot lot lower ...
I guess the new target will be 2% inflation per month?
Of, .... the prediction anything to do with Basel? or just a passing notion, or motion as it might have been
best
the gnome
Hi Kenj
Open the link that you posted - scroll down to the bottom and you will see a blue link ' FSB Annual report to G20 (October 2021)' - download - Scroll to page 34 'Annex' - It looks complicated but it isn't. - Basel 111 - 6th column to right relates to NSFR. - Alphabetically descending showing countries and their status re NSFR. e.g. 'C' = compliant. - UK shows an ampersand (&) on yellow background. - Below, page 35, 'Legend' - Explains what the various symbols mean. - Ampersand (&) = compliant from Jan 1st 2022. - Check it out and good luck. - It's like doing a crossword. :-)
If Barrick wanted to hammer the share price to pick up CEY on the cheap, wouldn't they be better off ignoring key maintenance issues, failing to properly investigate the true dimension and grade of the ore body and decreasing operational mining efficiency rather than improving it?
Unless they sneakily bought in massively at 80-something... any sign they've done this?
Thanks Razor.
European equities traded higher during the premarket session at the beginning of the week. During the day, the Deutsche Bundesbank will publish its Monthly Report outlining Germany’s economic outlook. Earlier French parliament adopted the final version of the vaccine pass bill, and French President Emmanuel Macron unveiled €4 billion worth of foreign investments in 21 projects.
The DAX climbed 0.16% at 7:02 am CET, while the FTSE 100 and the CAC 40 rose 0.20% and 0.12%, respectively. The euro and the pound sterling stood flat against the greenback at 7:16 am CET, to go for $1.14158 and $ 1.36748.
Baha Breaking the News (BBN) / JGA
Happy Monday y’al
Kenj , As Andrew explains the "game' is already in the wind down stages,
Andrews comparison of the of unwinding of positions to the changing direction of an oil tanker is a fair one, all the LBMA has gained is a bit more time and as 2022 progresses so will the winding down of the Comex paper positions.
LONDON, Jan. 12, 2022 /CNW/
Asked to identify the top trends in the M&A market in 2022, responding CEOs said that they expect :
- an increase in hostile and competitive bidding (72%)
- private equity to be a major acquirer (70%)
- an increase in cross-sector (68%)
- and cross-border (65%) dealmaking
- as well as more megadeals (56%)
As the world enters a new phase in the global COVID-19 pandemic, the majority of CEOs are ready to accelerate plans for investment and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in their pursuit for growth. These findings come from the inaugural EY 2022 CEO Outlook Survey, which recorded the views of more than 2,000 CEOs across the globe on their prospects, challenges and opportunities.
https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/over-half-of-ceos-to-step-up-investment-and-m-amp-a-in-2022-but-headwinds-remain-878818743.html
Hi Rebess,
I am having trouble verifying that. Can you provide a link clarifying the position?
Jan 7 , 2022
#DPG MINES AND CAREERS
"In recent years, the mining industry in particular has contributed to improving the resilience of our country in the face of the various crises it has experienced." So my government is committed to increasing its share in GDP by 20% on average per year for the period 2021-2025 We are also aware that this cannot be done without greater efficiency in securing mining sites. Regarding the plowing, my government will work to frame and modernize the artisan exploitation of gold in order to preserve the environment, protect the health of the population, and to be able to better control the income generated by the small ones xploitation. "
Lassina ZERBO
https://www.facebook.com/energieminescarrieresbf/?ref=page_internal
https://twitter.com/sinazerbo?lang=en
(He's the newly appointed PM - with great credentials )
Also, Razor - I miss those gold shipment posts too!
I always enjoyed reading about the monthly gold shipments that were flown to Canada from Cairo airport but out of the blue the media stopped reporting the details.
I believe this is the last one reported, dated January 2nd 2018.
https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/39083/405-Kg-of-pure-gold-arrive-at-Cairo-Airport-Monday
Building a small gold refinery is all of the rage ..
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gold-africa-refineries-insight-idCAKBN1ZE0YG
pluse there are runours of a few small ones. Even a rumour that the former Presdient of Burkina Faso, family had their own which processed the small scale and artsinal gold from the country. These people number about 2 million peple, and may produce up to x00k ozs gold per year, all illegally. The refinery does not exist now, due to the coup d'tat.
https://voxdev.org/topic/firms-trade/gold-mining-burkina-faso-who-wins
best
the gnome
Thank you Don.
That info was posted last Wedneday twice by both myself and Mr Tibbles and was pubished on Enterprise Egypt befre that.
Te new Board members were also published on RNS s so were hardly secret.
So to me ,to call it a conspiracy , does not wash yet with myself/
If I get egg on my face,so be it.
Sleep well.
Oh I forgot your time difference, have a good afternoon.
Hi Kenj
The Net Stable Funding Requirement (NSFR) , the part that affects the value of paper-gold contracts held, comes into effect from Jan 1st. 2022. - Gold contracts held on books that are unallocated gold must have 85% of their value covered by 100% liquidity assets. That is to say assets that can immediately be used for settlement, e.g. cash or proven allocated-gold contracts. - This is the significance of the new NSFR ruling and marks the beginning of the end of paper-gold as an asset-class. - This is what Andrew Maguire is referring to and it has started this month. - Once bedded-in it will change the way gold is priced and move the fulcrum away from Comex futures and more towards physical-deliverable-gold as the spot-price setter.
Egypt intends to establish its first gold refinery with costs reaching $100 million as a part of its strategy to develop its mining sector, Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Tarek El Molla told Al-Sharq on the sidelines of the Future Minerals Forum held in Saudi Arabia.
The minister declared that this project has not been started yet, but they are structuring the company which will be responsible for this refinery. This refinery will serve the region as a whole.
El Molla clarified that the sector’s development projects will be funded by the government, private sector, and international development organizations. He added that Egypt is producing around 15 tons of gold annually from Sukari Gold mine and still has great potentials in the Red Sea and South Egypt.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/egypt-oil-%26-gas_egypt-to-establish-its-first-gold-refinery-activity-6888508548419067904-zae-
------------------------------------>>>>
Egypt must be very confident a large number of African/MENA mining companies will utilize their refinery to spend that much to build it.
"15:05 Basel III now goes fully into effect!"
Mrtibbles,
If that is what Andrew Maquire is saying then he is wrong.
Full implementation of Basel 3 has been put back a year to 1 Jan 2023, due to Covid delays.
https://www.fsb.org/work-of-the-fsb/implementation-monitoring/monitoring-of-priority-areas/basel-iii/
Also the LBMA are still trying to water down the percentage of real gold they must hold to be classed as a Tier One asset. The game goes on!
Agree with Mr Tibbs - The admission by the BOD and NED's that they were unaware of what was going on at Sukari, is of itself a shocking admission of 'Gross Negligence' on their part and I mean 'SHOCKING' - They receive 'Golden hellos' - lucrative salaries - freebies, bonuses and free-shares in between and then Golden-goodbye's, yet, they don't know what's going on. - Kinnell!
Very fair comments Tony,
We had the choice in the past to believe either the CEO of the company that we had invested in or a reputable and very experienced industry independent annalist , unfortunately our CEO at the time wasn't being truthful.
You made the right choice , although as you refer to at least now Kees is in complete agreement with the changes that are now taking place .