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Except it would appear, knowledge of how to win over a sceptical audience. The market reaction was worse than I had feared
Reuters did a far better job of selling the results..maybe Centamin should ask them to prepare future press releases ..
We’ll be able to watch Sukari on Safari!
Dog to the park…
Halfpenny, of course historically long term gold has risen in line with inflation, but over the last year of inflation increasing, to this months whopping 7.5%, gold has fallen - an annual -10% in real terms so far, and hasn’t been a hedge at all. Could be because of worry if inflation is temporary, worry about nominal interest rates rising, competition from Bitcoin, or gold is just waiting catching us out as she goes, or investors just don’t like it, who knows…but if the trend is your friend it is a bit gloomy, added to unimpressive figures as Mrs Market points out
Currently at the bottom of a rising channel with the top end at 95p or so. Bloomberg this morning had a banker pleading with the FED out there not to raise rates to fight inflation. The FED is going to find itself between a rock and hard place. Putting up interest rates is not going to suddenly reduce energy costs in winter with pipelines having problems in the supply chain. A staginflation problem is already hitting bank customers as well.
“A culture of continued improvement.”
Reuters
2 minute read
Jan 19 (Reuters) - UK-listed Centamin (CEY.L) on Wednesday reported a 58% jump in gold production for the fourth quarter as the Egypt-focused miner benefited from higher-grade ores, while keeping its 2022 projections for gold output and capital expenditure unchanged.
Centamin, which operates Egypt's sole commercially producing gold mine, said production reached 107,549 ounces during the three months ended Dec. 31.
The company last month said a review of its Sukari gold mine in Egypt indicated the largest reserve growth in a decade, supporting its plan to produce 500,000 ounces per annum of the metal over the next 10 years.
Inflation which will highly likely turn to stagflation..
Or a gold rich seam find which is likely considering the licensed areas of exploration. Does anybody with an ounce of sense really believe pog will go down with the real inflation the world is and will experience for the foreseeable future?
https://www.investis-live.com/centamin/61d46777b81c471200d87831/tnye
exactly, but will the boss pay up next year, and that is what the market questions, are these just more away days or real skills that will make proper money? On a more encouraging note RPI is 7.5% today so Cey would have to climb to 250p to get back to where it was at the top in real terms, so nearly 300% so quite a lot of these ghastly figures must be in the price, tho when if ever the investment yields this kind of growth is a bit doubtful, only exploding gold can do that imho
Again Sotolo an unfair example as the AISC increasing is being spent on increasing reserves and resources and replacing diesel with solar energy and so forth. Its a bit like you earned less but were better trained with new skills and you took more time out to improve own mental and physical health and the boss is able to up pay next year.
I was afraid to ask did it matter that it was unsold.
Q1 gets off with a 20m gold head start.
You may well be right Tornado, and s’more your rose tinted specs that appreciate every pound less profit mend 52.5 p less to Emra, bit like I am thrilled when my salary halves as more than a third less to taxman! (not)
Sotolo
The price collapsed when all the past events arose. The fact is that the company earns more revenue in 2022 on same gold price metrics and half the AISC increases are profits that do not go to EMRA. When adjusted the share price should be 113p with a likely 2p increase on the price today. The 113p is based on a gold price hitting $1870 or so at some point during the year and having updated and favourable resource and reserves updates. Centamin is a buy and hold with 22% upside imop.
2021 guidance delivered
· Strong safety performance: Q4 Lost Time Injury Frequency Rate ("LTIFR") of 0.31 per one million site-based hours worked; FY LTIFR of 0.46, 28% better than the annual target of 0.65 as the Company strives to create a zero-harm workplace
· Annual gold production delivered in line with guidance (400,000-430,000 ounces): Gold production of 107,549 ounces ("oz") for the three months to 31 December 2021 ("Q4"), totalling 415,370 oz for the twelve months of 2021 ("FY") and at the midpoint of guidance
· Strong revenue generation as well as elevated gold sales receivables: Q4 revenue of US$183 million, generated from gold sales of 99,936 oz at an average realised gold price of US$1,828/oz sold; FY revenue of US$733 million, generated from gold sales of 407,252 oz at an average realised gold price of US$1,797/oz sold
· Annual costs delivered in line with guidance: Q4 cash costs of US$972/oz produced and all-in sustaining costs ("AISC") of US$1,256/oz sold; FY cash costs of US$859/oz produced and all-in sustaining costs ("AISC") of US$1,211/oz sold were delivered at the midpoint of annual guidance (Cash costs: US$800-900/oz produced; AISC: US$1,150-1,250/oz sold)
· Excellent progress on essential capital projects: Q4 capital expenditure ("capex") of US$86 million; FY capex of US$233 million, exceeding the annual guidance of US$225 million due to the waste-stripping outperformance
· Exploration activities on schedule: Q4 exploration spend of US$6 million advancing the Doropo and ABC projects in Côte d'Ivoire; FY exploration spend was US$14 million and US$3 million below the annual guidance
· Strong balance sheet with no debt and no hedging: Cash and liquid assets of US$257 million, as at 31 December 2021
· No material impacts due to COVID-19: Full COVID-19 protocols remain in place, and supply chains and gold shipments have not been materially impacted
· The Company will publish its full year 2021 financial results and propose the final dividend in mid-March 2021
I haven’t sold at all apart from a few a bit over 200, but still sadly have held 430k all the way down. Mea culpa. Yes the market do looks forward, which is the worry that next year reporting in Mar 2023 will be far worse that the one we have just had, at this gold price, and as said profits will be way down. However hopefully sometime in not too distant future markets should begin to consider 2024
Sotolo the markets look forward not back...and the future looks much better now..Looking back the sp was over £2 and now it's bellow £1. I guess you sold too soon
For me the big thing was meeting guidance, I don’t see people rushing in but also I don’t see any reason to sell. Long term these results will give management credibility.
Sorry to be clear profits predicted to be down 30% this year 2022, compare to last 2021 reported today.
Incidentally
2019
Gold oz 480k
Aisc $943
So 2022 aisc up an amazing over 50% more than halving profits compared to 2019 before reduced ounces thought of, obviated by increased gold price.
All with my simple sums but makes one think this is around the right share price which would be lower without the premium for hope built in for 23/24. I expect a drift down but what do I know…markets are v fickle and may be relieved no worse and as said nothing we don’t know (sadly not for the good either’
They haven't made a big thing about the 58% quarter on quarter increase in production this year compared to last year, just some more warm words from MH
Personally , I think the update missed an opportunity, and I am expecting a muted response in the share price resulting from what was, for me , an unimpressive report.
Market might well see it different , let's wait and see
As expected nothing changed about poor 2021 compared to pre Covid years or the guidance that 2022 will be much worse. Remember profits are affected in order by gold price, aisc and then ounces, as any percentage change in gold price and aisc affect profits three times more than ounces mined and sold.
Gold goes up 7%
Aisc rises 12%
So profits down by around 30% this year compared to last
2021
415,370 oz for the twelve months of 2021
Aisc 1211
Capex 233
2022
Gold production of 430,000 to 460,000 oz
· Cash costs of US$900-1,000/oz produced
· AISC of US$1,275-1,425/oz sold
· Capex of US$215 million, including US$25 million of deferred solar and paste-fill plant construction expenditure from 2021
Hopefully the market know all of this and will begin to look toward 2023/24 and hole the management is right that costs will be controlled but of course also affected by hefty mine inflation.
We badly need a higher gold price to save us, but in real sterling terms still falling
Imho
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/centamin-gold-production-jumps-58-in-december-quarter?amp
Hitting the midpoints of guidance lends credibility to their guidance going forward. Slightly easier to be confident of actually achieving the promised higher ounces.
Seems reasonable. No surprises in there.